171The story behind the fluctuating birthrate is complex. The One-Child policy
was particularly hard to implement in 1990. Though there were 264 registered
seven year olds in Xiji in the cohort entering school in 1989, according to statisti-
cal data from the local Family Planning Office, the number actually registered for
school entrance age was 504. In fact 607 students were actually admitted. The dis-
parity is likely to have arisen because of the regulation at that time that that chil-
dren born in contravention of the one child policy could not registered and were
therefor missed out from birth statistics. Subsequently informal methods may have
been used to obtain retrospective registrations.
By the time of the second period of research the One-Child policy was widely
accepted and complied with by most of the families. There are four main reasons for
the change in levels of compliance. First, the costs of sending a child to school have
increased greatly and there has been fierce competition in the labour market for jobs
placing household budgets under pressure. Second, it is argued that the younger gen-
eration of parents pay much more attention to their own needs and the pursuit of a
higher quality of personal life than did older generations who lived a more children-
centric life style. Third, the traditional beliefs in procreation to “raise children for old
age” have been gradually becoming less important with more economic mobility and
grown up children living away from home in other cities. Fourth, parents are now
much less likely to discriminate against daughters whereas in the past especially in
rural areas parents will not stop bearing children until they have a boy.^2 In Tongzhou
though there were more girls than boys it seems the sex ratios are now balanced.
The substantial declines in the birth rate have led to far fewer children enrolling
in schools over the last two decades. There were 65,000 children in primary school
in Tongzhou in 1990 but only 28,500 by 2005. Data from Xiji is illustrative of pat-
terns of growth. In the late 1980s and early 1990s the school system in Xiji was
growing at about 10 % per year, and in some years as much as 18 %. This growth
was the result of the high birth rate and the beginning of a period of inward migra-
tion. 15 years later the situation was completely reversed. The numbers in school
fell from over 3000 in 1990 to less than 1100 by 2005 with an annual shrinkage of
between 10 and 15 %. The contrast in patterns of enrolment by grade is striking.
In 1990 there were many more children in grade 1 than grade 6 indicating substan-
tial drop out was taking place. In 2008 the opposite was true and there were more
children in grade 6 than in grade 1. This suggests that the age group was getting
smaller and that drop out had been reduced to low levels (Fig. 8.2).
The number of schools has been falling as a result of the changes in population
and the merger of small schools. From 1990 to 2005 the number of schools fell
from 300 to 120 in Tongzhou. Schools in hamlets were basically shut or merged
and there are only complete and/or central primary schools left in rural areas. In
Xiji 28 schools have been reduced to 14. In Majuquaio 26 schools have become
6 schools. The number of junior secondary schools has fallen from 35 to 24.
(^2) Though this is often claimed if parents really did follow the rule that they could have as many
children as they wish providing they stop when the first boy is born the sex ratio in the population
would be equal. If there is an imbalance it will be because of a different set of rules and practices.