46 Middle East & Africa TheEconomistMay14th 2022
AlgeriaandMorocco
The danger of lightinga gasfire
T
heseshouldbeheadytimesforthe
world’s tenthlargest producer of natu
ral gas. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has
sent European governments scrambling
for new supplies. Algeria sends more than
80% of its gas exports to Europe. Most is
piped to Spain and Italy (see map). As the
continent’s thirdbiggest supplier, it
should be investing in new capacity to pro
duce and transport more of the stuff. In
stead it is threatening to send less.
Last year Algeria shut a pipeline that
runs to Spain via Morocco. The closure was
an act of pique towards Morocco, which
takes 7% of the flow as a royalty and gets al
most all of its natural gas from Algeria.
Spain still receives Algerian exports
through a smaller undersea pipeline that
bypasses Morocco. However, last month
Algeria threatened to close that, too, after
Morocco asked Spain to send it gas by re
versing the flow of the nowidle Morocco
Spain pipeline. Algeria said it would stop
all gas exports to Spain if it did so.
That may well be bluster: Algeria does
not want to lose Spanish cash. In any case,
Algeria’s inflammatory talk has much to do
with its troubled domestic politics. But the
threats are exacerbating Algeria’s long feud
with Morocco. Wellconnected Algerians
say the standoff with their neighbour
could even tip into war.
Tensions between the two countries
date back to 1963, when they fought a brief
“sand war” over a strip of borderland a year
after Algeria had won independence from
France. Since then, ideological rivalry has
deepened. Morocco is a conservative, pro
Western monarchy, whereas Algeria was a
prominent member of the NonAligned
Movement and friendly to the Soviet Un
ion. The land border between the two has
been closed since 1994, to the joy of smug
glers and the annoyance of everyone else.
In the 1970s Algeria began backing the
Polisario Front, a guerrilla group seeking
independence for Western Sahara, which
Morocco grabbed in 1975 after the depar
ture of Spain, its colonial ruler. The deci
sion to close the pipeline is linked to
events in Western Sahara, where Morocco
has been gaining ground both militarily
and diplomatically.
It may not mean immediate pain for
Morocco’s economy. About 60% of its ener
gy comes from oil. Two gasfired plants are
switched on only to handle peak demand.
Officials have discussed buying cargoes
from Qatar, the world’s largest exporter of
liquefied natural gas. Morocco has issued
tenders for a regasification plant. It is also
pushing ahead with renewables.
Lately Algeria’s grievances have grown.
International news organisations reported
last year that Morocco had used Pegasus, a
powerful spyware tool made by Israel’s nso
Group, to snoop on the phones of some
6,000 Algerians, including politicians and
generals. Morocco denies this.
Mindful of Algeria’s support for Polisa
rio, Morocco’s ambassador at the un has
called for selfdetermination in Kabylie, a
restive mainly Berber region of northern
Algeria. Algeria saw this as a threat. It even
blamed Morocco for devastating wildfires
lastsummer.KingMohammedofMorocco
triedtolowerthetemperaturelastyear,
callingfordialogueinhisannualspeech
fromthethrone.ButAlgeriaseemsless
keenonreconciliation.
Algeriaisinabadway.Amovement
calledthehirakledproteststhatresultedin
theoverthrowthreeyearsagoofAbdelaziz
Bouteflika after 20 years in power. The
protestershadhopedthatanewgenera
tionofleaderswouldemerge.Insteadhis
fallonlyformalisedtheruleofLePouvoir, a
cliqueofgreymenwhorantheshowfrom
theshadowsthroughoutBouteflika’slong
rule.Theyhavedonelittletoreforma hide
boundeconomyor cleanupcorruption.
Unemploymentisaround12%,andhigher
fortheyoung.Inflationhit8.5%lastyear.
AcrisiswithMoroccoisa waytorally
increasingly frustrated Algerians. Both
sidesseemgearedupforconflict.Algeria
andMoroccohavethesecondandthird
largestarmiesinAfrica. Withadefence
budget of$9.1bn, Algeria is the world’s
sixthbiggest arms importer. Morocco
spent$5.4bnonitsarmedforceslastyear,
upbyabouta thirdfrom2019.Itranksin
theworld’stoptenformilitaryspendingas
a share of gdp; Algeria’s is 5.6% versus
4.2% for Morocco. Algerians, however,
sound less keen on conflict than their lead
ers do. Younger ones may prefer their gov
ernment to focus on jobs and the economy
rather than rattle sabres at its neighbour.
Europeans, too, are wary of events
across the Mediterranean. Last year Spain
got more than 40% of its naturalgas im
ports from Algeria. A rupture would hit
hard, just when energy prices are already
skyhigh. The Ukrainian war has prompted
Spain to forswear Russian gas. It cannot af
ford to lose another supplier. On top of
that, a conflictbetween nearby Arabs could
mean a waveofmigrants. In short, nobody
would benefit.n
D UBAI
Algeria hopes a crisis with Morocco will distractfromproblemsathome
MALI
LIBYA
PORTUGAL
MOROCCO
ITALY
ALGERIA
ATLANTIC OCEAN
Pipelineclosed
Mediterranean Sea
WESTERN
SAHARA
S N
FRANCE
Polisario-held
territory
Kabylie T I
500 km
Main gas pipelines
(March 2022)
Source: Entsog
Wending their wiggly way to Europe