2007, 2007–2008 or 2008–2009, there is almost no increase at all. Especially with a
negative growth appearing in 2007–2008, and all these result into the TFP index in
2008 cumulatively reduced by−11% relative to the base year of 2006.
By contrast, the non-985Us’TFP index in HSS disciplines is in the downtrend
during 2006–2010, with the cumulative decline of−4.7%. During these years,
although the TFP index of non985Us is increased by 6.7% in 2006–2007, and by
0.9% in 2009–2010, these trivial improvements can do little to help with two
declines of−6.6 and−5.2% respectively in 2007–2008 and 2008–2009. Therefore,
relative to base year, the TFP index in 2008, 2009 and 2010 is cumulatively
decreased by−0.4,−5.6 and−4.7% respectively.
In the next step, we analyze the cumulative changes of TEC index, TC index,
PTEC index and SEC index in the same way, aiming for clarifying the major
sources of cumulative changes of TFP index. The results are plotted in Fig.5.8.
Overall speaking, from 2006 to 2010, cumulative changes of HSS research
productivity in both groups are in the same trend, along with the cumulative
changes of each decomposition index is ratherfluctuant. Relative to base year, only
TC index shows a positivefive-year cumulative improvement. Owing to declines in
PTEC index, TEC index shows a cumulative downtrend. This reflects the fact that
to both groups, growth effect is the absolute source of research productivity growth,
and inefficiency in resource allocation is the primary cause of the decline in TFP
index. Besides, the TFP gaps between the two groups are primarily caused by their
different status in SEC changes. More detailed discussion can be made as below.
Firstly, both 985Us and non-985Us show fairly good cumulative improvements
in TC index, and the former outperforms the latter with slightly more gains from
growth effects of technical change. Relative to the base year, thefive-year cumu-
lative of TC improvement rate of 985Us is 33.4%, while that of non-985Us is
28.1%. However, both groups experience a serious decline in TC index in 2007–
2008, and then rebound in 2008–2009. Concerning the research administration in
the future, it’s deserved for administrators to focus on how to guarantee the steady
Fig. 5.7 Cumulative changes of TFP index of 985Us and non-985Us (HSS)
5.2 Differences and Trends on Research Productivity of 985Us and Non-985Us 231