Low Carbon Urban Infrastructure Investment in Asian Cities

24 T. WAKIYAMA ET AL.

Table 2.3

Monte Carlo simulation results: Household IRR and NPV forecast values for 20 year in different scenariosForecast values42 JPY/k Wh (2012)

38 JPY/k Wh (2013)

No FIT

10 years FIT/10 years no FIT

20 years FIT

20 years FIT

Life time of solar panel

20 years

20 years

20 years

20 years

IRR

NPV

IRR

NPV

IRR

NPV

IRR

NPV

Base case

0.28

%

79,779

0.33

%

145,073

0.33

%

198,316

0.33

%

187,027

Mean

0.08

%

–364,450

0.25

%

–158,426

0.27

%

49,442

0.25

%

5664

Median

0.08

%

–376,511

0.25

%

–170,684

0.27

%

41,471

0.25

%

262

Standard deviation

0.09

%

171,007

0.07

%

173,414

0.07

%

170,740

0.07

%

175,836

Variance

0.00

%

29,243,337,346

0.00

%

30,072,280,326

0.00

%

29,152,279,231

0.00

%

30,918,202,919

Skewness

0.0347

0.4183

–0.0867

0.6477

0.0503

0.3641

–0.0867

0.1895

Kurtosis

3.09

3.36

2.85

3.83

3.04

3.30

2.85

2.86

Coeff. of variability

1.0443

–0.47

0.3004

–1.09

0.2638

3.45

0.3004

31.04

Minimum

–0.24

%

–901,155

0.02

%

–579,417

0.06

%

–377,833

0.02

%

–460,845

Maximum

0.36

%

303,377

0.46

%

623,701

0.51

%

737,412

0.46

%

613,071

Range width

0.60

%

1,204,532

0.44

%

1,203,119

0.45

%

1,115,244

0.44

%

1,073,916

Mean std. error

0.00

%

5408

0.00

%

5484

0.00

%

5399

0.00

%

5560

Source: Author