TIME October 23, 2017
IN THE HOURS BEFORE THE PRESIDENT OF
Catalonia took the podium, the rumors were
coming thick and fast. No one seemed sure if
Carles Puigdemont would declare independence
unilaterally for the region of Spain he leads, or if
he would sue for negotiations with the Madrid
government of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. Yet
when the president at last spoke on Oct. 10, he tried
to split the difference. “The people had determined
that Catalonia should become an independent
state,” he said, before asking parliament to “suspend
the effects of the independence declaration for the
coming weeks while we embark on a dialogue.”
The statement neatly represents the bind
in which Catalonia finds itself after the Oct. 1
independence referendum, deemed illegal by
Spain. By combining two seemingly incompatible
ideas like unstable atoms in a molecule,
Puigdemont may have created a framework that
will prove radioactive: for Catalonia, Spain and
even Europe as a whole. Yet it was the only real
choice he could make.
This corner of Spain is now in uncharted
territory. First came a general strike by referendum
supporters outraged by heavy-handed attempts
by the police to halt the vote. That was followed by
huge protests from a so-called silent majority that
favors remaining in Spain. For days it has seemed
as if the country was hurtling toward the brink.
If so, it’s a precipice the two sides have
constructed together. After winning a majority
in the Catalan parliament, pro-independence
parties defied the central government and called
the referendum. The world sided with Spain, until
its government began arresting local politicians
and confiscating ballots. When the referendum
took place, independence won 89% of the vote,
though with only a 43% turnout and marred by
voting irregularities.
Now, Puigdemont faces a dilemma. He
knows Catalonia needs international support
to maintain its bid for independence. And the
violent images that circulated around the globe
after the vote provoked sympathy for his cause.
But theindependentistas can’t always count on
police violence to make their case for them. So
Puigdemont chose to present his side as open to
dialogue. We’re the reasonable ones here, he seemed
to be saying, and we trust the democratic process.
SPAIN, HOWEVER,has rejected this gambit. Rajoy has
promised he will not negotiate unless the Catalans
first renounce their declaration of independence.
“The Catalans are suggesting a mediation that
would bring the two sides to the table as legitimate
equals,” says José Ignacio Torreblanca, opinion editor
of Spain’s largest newspaper,El País. “But [Spain]
can’t do that, first because one side is breaking the
law, and then because equal standing is exactly what
Catalonia wants.”
Instead, Rajoy intends to stand in the way
of Catalan secession, at all costs. He is now set
to invoke a never-before-used constitutional
provision, Article 155, to reinstate home rule over
the region. What this means no one knows for sure,
says Joan Vintró Castells, professor of constitutional
law at the University of Barcelona. “[Article] 155
is not specific,” he explains. “All it says is ‘the
State will adopt the necessary measures.’” These
might mean anything from taking over public
administrations to sending in the military.
But Rajoy may pause before repeating the kind of
tactics that strengthened theindependentistas.And
given the divisions within that movement, he may
yet stay his hand. “Ultimately nationalism has to
break by its own internal forces, rather than a push
from outside,” Torreblanca says. “We have a saying
in Spanish: let it cook in its own sauce.”
But who, exactly, is the one getting cooked? This
crisis is driven not just by a desire for independence
by a region with its own language, identity and
history of chafing at Spanish dominance that
dates back centuries. There’s also frustration
with a sclerotic central government riddled with
corruption and hampered by its inability to respond
to the demands of a changing society.
Puigdemont’s gamble has bought some time,
but nothing is resolved. On Oct. 11, Rajoy upped the
ante by taking the first step in activating Article 155
and asking the Catalan government if it has made
a declaration of independence. It was, he said, an
attempt to achieve clarity.
But if there’s one thing this crisis has made plain,
it’s that things can change fast. That was obvious
to the 30,000independentistas who gathered on a
boulevard just north of the Catalan parliament to
watch Puigdemont’s speech on a big screen and who
ended up booing the man whom, moments before,
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