Time_Asia-November_06_2017

The Brief

THE RISK REPORT

Abe’s big win in

Japan gives him time

to make history

By Ian Bremmer

FOR THE WEST’S STRONGEST LEADER,

look East. After his party’s landslide victory

in the parliamentary elections on Oct. 22,

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan is poised

to become his country’s strongest and most

successful leader in the postwar era.

Abe’s center-right coalition retained

its two-thirds supermajority in Japan’s

lower house of parliament, and his Liberal

Democratic Party won an absolute majority

on its own, allowing it to control the

legislative agenda. Although Abe’s ratings

sank to a record low earlier this year, his

opposition proved to be as fragmented

as ever. Rising star Yuriko Koike, Tokyo’s

governor, kept her distance from this race,

and the new Constitutional Democratic Party,

rather than her newly minted Party

of Hope, will now be the largest in

opposition. Lawmakers will rein l

Abe as Prime Minister in time for

Donald Trump’s visit to Japan on

Nov. 5. If he goes on to win a third

term as his party’s president next

September, he will become Japan s

longest-serving leader since

the 1880s.

Abe now has time to play

the long game. He wants very

much to amend Article Nine

of Japan’s constitution—

which repudiates war as a mean to resolve

global disputes—to affirm once and for all

Japan’s right to maintain a military. Yet this

remains a controversial question for Japanese

voters, including both ideological pacifists

and those who prefer their leader to focus

on revitalizing the economy rather than

entangling it in foreign conflicts. Abe will

likely wait until his third term is secure before

making any bold move.

But this parliamentary victory leaves him

in a stronger position to play a more assertive

role in East Asia, particularly in counter-

balancing China. Trump’s foreign policy

ambivalence only makes this more important.

Abe will also try to persuade the U.S.

President during his visit to sell Japan cruise

missiles as a deterrent against North Korea.

On trade, Abe can be firm with Trump. In

particular, he can resist pressure to commit

to bilateral trade talks because he now has

more confidence that he’ll be around long

enough to persuade a future U.S. President

to return to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a

multicountry deal that Trump has rejected

and Abe still wants. Even if that fails, Abe

prefer TPP without the U.S. to a new

al agreement.

other point on the long game: Abe

that Japan’s shrinking labor market

l raise wages for workers, triggering

the reflation of prices that Japan

needs for stronger growth. More

lending with more state spending,

and Japan’s economy might be

revving nicely in time for the 2020

Tokyo Olympic Games. If it works,

that’s a legacy any elected leader

would envy. □

HIGH SCHOOL

Rejected yearbook photos

A Maine high schooler had his yearbook photo rejected because he

was holding a shotgun, which he said represented a family tradition.

Here, other yearbook props and outfits that fell afoul of school censors.

—Kate Samuelson

HEADDRESS

In 2016 a California

high school declined

to print a portrait

of a student who

had no ties to the

Middle East wearing

a traditional kaffiyeh.

He said he wore it

to “provoke” the

system.

BOW

A Pennsylvania

high schooler had

her photo rejected

in 2015 because

she was drawing a

hunting bow toward

the lens. Officials

said they considered

it to be a weapon,

even without arrows.

TUXEDO

In 2010 a teenager

filed a discrimination

lawsuit against a

Mississippi school

district for excluding

her from her senior

yearbook because

she had chosen to

wear a tuxedo in

her photo.

TICKER

Tiny firm to help

rebuild Puerto Rico

A tiny Montana firm

founded just two

years ago was given a

$300 million contract

to help restore power in

hurricane-struck Puerto

Rico, where 75% of the

island is still without

electricity. Whitefish

Energy Holdings is

based in the hometown

of Interior Secretary

Ryan Zinke, but the

company denied

benefiting from political

favoritism.

Stricter rules for

some refugees

The Trump

Administration agreed

to resume refugee

admissions into the

U.S. but announced

stricter screening rules

for nationals from 11

unnamed countries,

mainly in the Middle

East and Africa,

identified as high risk.

Reality-TV star to

challenge Putin

Russian journalist and

former reality-television

star Ksenia Sobchak

announced she would

run for President in

Russia’s elections

in March. President

Vladimir Putin has not

yet announced his

candidacy but is widely

expected to do so.

Ocean acidification

poses great threat

A study found ocean

acidification, caused

by the burning of fossil

fuels, to be a great

danger to marine

life. The report found

threats like plastic

pollutants had affected

organisms’ ability to

withstand acidification.

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