47Kazakhstan in principle. However, even non-nationalistic ethnic Kazakhs presume
and fear that it might be implemented in northern or eastern Kazakh regions”, he
said. “They argue that no-one could even imagine that this might have happened
to Crimea,” he continued.
Razumov argues that relations between Russia, Ukraine and Crimea cannot be
compared to the situation between Russia and Kazakhstan due to differences in
historical memory. “Kazakhstan is largely perceived as something abstract by Rus-
sians. They regard it as something that doesn’t belong to Russians”, he explained.
Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, demographic and social changes in Ka-
zakhstan have also somewhat decreased separatist sentiments in predominantly
Russian regions. According to the last Soviet census in 1989, the share of ethnic
Russians in the country was as big as that of ethnic Kazakhs – 38 per cent to 40
per cent, respectively. However, as a result of the outward ethnic Russian migra-
tion and inward ethnic Kazakh migration, as well as a high birth rate among ethnic
Kazakhs, the proportion of ethnic Russians has decreased to 20.6 per cent in 2016,
whereas ethnic Kazakhs now account for nearly 67 per cent. At the same time,
ethnic Russians still constitute large minorities in the country’s north and east –
42 per cent, 50 per cent and 37 per cent in Kostanay, North Kazakhstan and East
Kazakhstan regions respectively, where the share of ethnic Kazakhs now stand at
40, 35 and 60 per cent.
Migration is the answerIn response to the situation in Ukraine, the Kazakh government resumed its
programme to encourage ethnic Kazakh immigration from abroad. The programme,
launched in the early 1990s, helped nearly one million ethnic Kazakhs move back to
Kazakhstan through 2011; when the government suspended the programme following
events in the oil town of Zhanaozen (in the country’s west) where clashes between
striking oil workers and security forces led to the death of 15 people. Following
2014, the government has significantly simplified procedures to acquire Kazakh
citizenship for ethnic Kazakh immigrants settling along the border with Russia. It
has also started encouraging internal migration from the densely-populated pre-
dominantly ethnic Kazakh southern regions to the north and east of the country.
This is transforming the demographic and linguistic landscape of these regions
with newly-settled ethnic Kazakhs becoming increasingly assertive in speaking
Kazakh and leading a more traditional way of life. Ethnic Russians complain that
the newcomers move to their towns and show disrespect for the established local
customs. “I have witnessed a young Kazakh doctor tell a Russian elderly woman to
The crawling threat of the Crimea scenario, Naubet Bisenov Opinion & Analysis