New Eastern Europe - November-December 2017

A looming humanitarian crisis

in the land Orwell forgot

CHRISTOPHER SCHWARTZ

Turkmenistan, a desert republic of 5.6 million people and

widely considered to be one of the world’s most repressive

states, is heading towards a humanitarian catastrophe.

Its effects could be geopolitically significant.

A potential humanitarian crisis, with geopolitical ramifications across Central
Asia and the Middle East, may be imminent in a country few in the West have
heard of and even fewer can find on a map: Turkmenistan. While there is still a
chance for the country to reverse its course, it is highly unlikely it will, as the rul-
ing regime appears to be hell bent on maintaining its power at all costs. This is the
deeply troubling assessment by analysts and news agencies observing the coun-
try – one of the world’s most closed societies, rivalling the likes of North Korea. It
is unknown whether a humanitarian crisis would lead to the state’s partial collapse.
However, rumours of a possible Russian intervention upon Turkmenistan’s border
with Afghanistan and speculation of backdoor negotiations with the Persian Gulf
rivals of its neighbour and erstwhile trading partner, Iran, are among the many
worrying signs that the government is struggling to manage a rapidly evolving
and complex situation.

Opulence and Orwellianism

In the annals of totalitarianism, North Korea occupies a special, terrible place,
having come the nearest to achieving George Orwell’s great nightmare. Yet, often