I nTERnATIOnAL
terrorism.
But on the very day when North Korea submitted its declaration,
then US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice raised the issue of verifi-
cation and called for inspectors to verify the declaration. North Korea
was strongly opposed to this, arguing that the October 3 Joint Docu-
ment did not include any clause on verification. As the US failed to
honour its commitment to remove North Korea from the list, North
Korea declared on August 11, 2008 that it would “suspend the opera-
tion of disabling nuclear reactors and would at the same time consider
restoring Yongbyon nuclear facilities to the original state.” It also ex-
pelled inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency.
The Six-Party Talks managed to move forward in spite of many dif-
ficulties and obstacles and helped to maintain stability on the Penin-
sula. More importantly, the talks kept all parties moving in the direc-
tion of denuclearisation and a peaceful settlement of their differences.
Unfortunately, this process failed to continue in subsequent years.
Escalation and Intensification (2009 to present)
As of March 2017, North Korea had conducted five nuclear tests.
The first occurred following the suspension of Six-Party Talks in
- The other four tests all occurred after 2009 under the adminis-
tration of then US President Barack Obama, during which time the
Six-Party Talks completely stalled and a vicious cycle of escalation and
intensification took over.
The Obama administration strongly believed that North Korea
had not been honouring its commitments to the various agreements
and had been allowed to go too far in cheating and blackmailing the
US. Opposing any US-DPRK deals became the “politically correct”
stance in Washington. In the same period, Pyongyang apparently de-
cided to take a tougher stance and became more inclined to acquire
nuclear capabilities. The result was a new round of spiralling escala-
tions.
On May 25, 2009, North Korea conducted its second nuclear test,
triggering the UN Security Council to unanimously pass Resolution
1874 on sanctions. Then on March 26, 2010, the South Korean war-
ship Cheonan sank in the Yellow Sea, when an unidentified explosion
hit the rear of the ship, causing 46 deaths. The US and South Korea
immediately accused North Korea of attacking the warship with a
submarine torpedo, imposing new sanctions, which was then fol-
lowed by a new cycle of escalations and sanctions.
For the Obama administration, the Korean nuclear issue is linked
with its disapproval of the North Korean regime. As a result, the
essence of its policy of “strategic patience” was that no matter how
North Korea conducted itself, the US did not give any serious consid-
eration to Pyongyang’s security concerns. If North Korea was willing
to negotiate, the US would talk but with no intention of making any
progress. If North Korea chose confrontation, the US would intensify
sanctions. The ultimate purpose was to see the North Korean regime
collapse under constant pressure.
So, the reality is that the Obama administration’s de facto tough
policy concealed by the word “patience” bumped against North Ko-
rea’s strong determination to possess nuclear power. The two coun-
tries negatively reinforced each other, allowing the tense situation to
slip into a downward spiral.
Since the two sides reached an impasse, the DPRK has taken the
opportunity to move forward with its programme. In the meantime,
the UN Security Council has stepped up sanctions, and the US and
South Korea have been carrying out heightened military exercises to
exert greater military pressure on the DPRK. Consequently, tensions
are now running high and the channel for talks is closed, and the situ-
ation is increasingly dangerous.Conclusion
Fu Ying noted that China strongly opposes nuclear proliferation.
Upon taking up its role as a mediator, China firmly requested North
Korea stop its nuclear weapons development while requesting other
concerned parties, especially the US, to address the DPRK’s legiti-
mate security concerns. But the deep mistrust between the US and
the DPRK made it very hard for any consensus or agreement made
during the years of negotiations to be effectively implemented.
China had been working hard to play its role both as a mediator
and a party to UN sanctions, but it did not have the leverage to force
either the US or DPRK to assume their respective responsibilities.
Without holding the key to the DPRK’s security concerns, China
has no leverage to convince this foreign nation to stop its nuclear pro-
gramme. The US, which the DPRK sees as the source of threats to its
security, has been neither interested nor willing to consider respond-
ing to the DPRK’s security concerns.
Fu Ying envisioned three possbilities of the development of the Ko-
rean nuclear issue.
First possibility: The vicious cycle of US and UN sanctions fol-
lowed by North Korean nuclear and missile tests goes on until it
reaches a tipping point. At that point, those who oppose North Korea
possessing nuclear weapons would be faced with the hard choice of
taking extreme action with unknown consequences, or tolerating it.
Sanctions may exert huge pressure on North Korea, but the country
can hold up and will not give up nuclear development.
As a matter of fact, North Korea started nuclear testing after sanc-
tions started, and it has conducted five tests against the background
of intensified sanctions. The pattern of a spiral of intensified sanc-
tions and continued nuclear testing is difficult to change because
of two factors: First, North Korea is determined to possess nuclear