30 Asia The EconomistFebruary 10th 2018
F
IRST soldiers and police surrounded the Supreme Court in
Malé, the claustrophobic, sea-girt capital ofthe Maldives.
Then, earlier this week, they hauled off the chief justice and two
associatesin the dead of night. Abdulla Yameen has racked up
many accomplishments since becoming president of the strate-
gic archipelago in 2013, from befriending China and Saudi Arabia
to hounding both the opposition and leaders of his own co-
alition, intimidating the remains of a free press and, earlier this
month, shutting parliament. Now he hassuspended much of the
constitution and declared a 15-day state of emergency.
Mr Yameen may have become a full-blown dictator, but he
seems to see himself as the victim of a monstrous injustice. The
court, he claims, was paving the way for a coup by nefarious
forces. How else to explain its actions on February 1st, when it or-
dered the release of political prisoners and the reinstatement of
MPs who had crossed over to the opposition? The chief justice
must have been bribed, he says. To make matters worse, two po-
lice chiefs had to be fired before a third could be found who
would ignore the court’s orders. (He is said to be so unpopular
that underlings shout at him in the canteen.)
Grievance and paranoia come naturally to the president. A
former ally, Ahmed Adeeb, is one of those whom the court or-
dered released. Talk about ingratitude. Mr Yameen gave him his
leg-up. He even changed the constitution to give him the vice-
presidency, reducing the minimum age to hold the state’s top
posts. Mr Adeeb repaid him by getting caught pilfering $79m from
the tourism board. He was duly sacked—as a fall guy, the presi-
dent’s critics say; as a lone bad apple, he insists. It must be galling
that few believe Mr Yameen’s claim that an explosion on the pres-
idential speedboat was an assassination attempt by Mr Adeeb.
It is also unfair that Mr Yameen—stiff, macho and prone to re-
ferring to himself in the third person—lacks the charisma of the
previous dictator, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom. He ruled for 30
years, during which the Maldives won its image with tourists as a
coral-island Eden, but his wiliness failed him when he was
ousted in the islands’ firstdemocratic election, in 2008. Later he
backed Mr Yameen’s rise to power. He is his half-brother, after all.
In families, however, gratitude can taste like vinegar—espe-
cially when the rest of the clan know that your mother first en-tered the household as a maid. Mr Yameen intended the same
constitutional change that elevated Mr Adeeb to bar Mr Gayoom
from returning to power, by setting an upper age limit of 65. Yet far
from retiring, the octogenarian Mr Gayoom has infuriatingly re-
branded himself as a liberal democrat. On the night the court was
purged, Mr Gayoom was also arrested and dispatched to the pri-
son island of Dhoonidhoo (even as his son was released). That
the police arresting Mr Gayoom saluted him might, to a sensitive
president, count as one more grievance.
A population of about 400,000—a third crammed onto Malé’s
six square kilometres—makes the Maldives a tiny place, even if its
1,200 islands are spread across a vast expanse of the Indian
Ocean. All politics is personal, and odd combinations can form.
Just one example is that one person calling for Mr Gayoom’s
release from Dhoonidhoo is his nemesis in 2008, Mohamed
Nasheed (whom the former dictator had once had tortured in the
very same place). Mr Nasheed’s tumultuous four years in power
before a murky coup were, howeverimperfect, the Maldives’ first
attempt at representative government. His conviction on
trumped-up charges of terrorism was one of those that the Su-
preme Court overturned.
From Sri Lanka, Mr Nasheed remains a thorn in Mr Yameen’s
side—though hopes a week ago of an early return were dashed
with the suspension of constitutional government. Mr Nasheed
urges America to sanction Mr Yameen’s cronies. He has called
upon India, for centuries the regional power, to intervene. So far,
both countries have merely deplored developments.
For now Mr Yameen has the advantage. He looks determined
to hang on through electionslater this year—if he holds them at
all. Crucially, he holds the money. As the sun sets over Malé, the
1.5km bridge under construction between the capital and the air-
port island lights up with clear red lettering: “CHINA MALDIVES
EVERLASTING FRIENDSHIP”. It is the biggest of several Chinese
projects, backed by Chinese loans, that include a hospital and a
big expansion ofthe airport. There isno public tendering, and no
budgets have been published. Diplomats and NGOs suspect costs
have been wildly inflated.
Not even the monetary authority has any handle on the debts
the Maldives is amassing, butthinks three-fifths are owed to Chi-
na. Any default, and China can extract concessions, such as a base
on the Indian Ocean. Meanwhile, everyone assumes Chinese
cash is lining politicians’ pockets and paying for political largesse.The isle is full of noises
A tiny part of that largesse was going this week to young gang
members being flown to Malé from distant atolls to add to the
numbers showing support for Mr Yameen, even as he breaks up
opposition rallies. The gangs embody a strange confluence of
street politics, criminality and Islamist fervour, the latter intro-
duced by Saudi Arabian charities in the wake of the Indian Ocean
tsunami of 2004. They have brought dramatic change to islands
that have traditionally nurtured a very tolerant form of Islam.
Mr Yameen is happy to identify with this new form, painting
his critics at home and abroad as enemies of Islam. He is thought
to be mulling “In the name of God” as a campaign slogan. But Mr
Yameen knows he cannot rely on God alone. “Maldivian Idol”, a
hugely popular televised singing competition, was abruptly put
on hold during last week’spolitical tensions. The rumouris that it
will soon be back on again—proof of normality amid the swirling
political currents of this mostpeculiar ofisland republics. 7A tropical tempest
The president of the Maldives has lost all legitimacy but kept his jobBanyan