The Economist Asia - February 10, 2018

40 The Americas The EconomistFebruary 10th 2018

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I

N 1960 Tom Keane voted for John Kenne-

dy in the United States’ presidential elec-

tion (“because he was Irish and Catholic”).

The only candidate since then to fire him

up is Donald Trump, for whom he voted in

2016. Mr Keane revels in Mr Trump’s mis-
      chief-making. What about Mr Trump’s no-
      torious assertion that some Mexican im-
      migrants are rapists? He “shoots from the
      hip”, Mr Keane responds. Such enthusiasm
      is common among supporters of the
      American president. But unlike most, Mr
      Keane lives in Mexico.
      His home is in Ajijic, a village on Lake
      Chapala, Mexico’s largest lake. He volun-

teers at the Lake Chapala Society, which

helps expatriates find friends and hobbies.

He will go back to California “in a box with

my feet first”, he says.

Mr Keane is one of 10,000 or so retired

Americans near Lake Chapala, perhaps

the biggestnon-urban cluster of expatriate

Americans outside an army base. The

number doubles in winter. At 1,500 metres

(5,000 feet) above sea level, Ajijic has Flori-

da’s sunshine but not its humidity. Mr

Keane is glad to be far away from Califor-

nia’s hordes of skateboarding youngsters.

“That’s what I like about the cobblestone

streets around here,” he says. 

The village offers American comforts.

Clergymen preach in English. A supermar-

ket on the main street sells organic mine-

strone soup and gluten-free muesli. Prices

are lower than in the United States.

Lake Chapala has long attracted culti-

vated foreigners. D.H. Lawrence wrote a

draft of his novel, “The Plumed Serpent”,

on its shores nearly a centuryago. Ameri-

can intellectuals took refuge there from

McCarthyism during the 1950s. Nowadays

blogs that promote Mexico as a cheap

place to retire are “attracting a different

type of person”, says David Truly, a socio-

logist who lives in the area.

The newcomers are neither as high-

brow nor as reliably liberal as earlier set-

tlers, which causes tension. A Walmart

that opened in Ajijic a decade ago still up-

sets longtime residents, who think it de-

tracts from the village’s charm. Some re-

cent arrivals have brought the United

States’ polarised politics with them. Mr

Truly detects “a real animosity” between

Mr Trump’s opponents and fans.

No one knows how many American

pensioners live in Mexico. In 2016 nearly

29,000 received American social-security

cheques there, a rise of 24% from 2005.

That probably understates the number. A

Pensioners in Mexico

Trump supporters

welcome

AJIJIC

A haven for Americans attracts a new

sort of immigrant

They’re not sending their best people

T

IM HORTONS, Canada’s largest coffee-

and-doughnut chain, is so beloved that

politicians campaigning for office rarely

fail to visit one. Its “double-double”, a cof-

fee with two splashes of cream and two

sugars, has an entry in the Canadian Ox-

ford Dictionary. But in January trade-union

activistsheld demonstrations outside Tim

Hortons restaurants in Ontario, the coun-

try’s most populous province. Those have

died down, but angry letters and phone

calls keep coming.

The activists’ gripe is about the way the

chain handled a sharp increase in Ontar-

io’s minimum wage. On January 1st the

province’s Liberal government raised it

from C$11.60 ($9.25) to C$14. That makes it

the highest in Canada. Another rise to C$15

is scheduled for next year.

Tim Hortons’ workers have no com-

plaint about that. But they are dismayed by

many franchisees’ plans forcovering the

cost. Barred from raising prices by Tim Hor-

tons’ owner, a company controlled by 3G

Capital, a Brazilian private-equity firm,

some franchiseescut benefits, including

paid breaks. From the brand’s point of

view, such tactics are “hall-of-fame stupid”,

tweeted Frank Graves, a pollster—though

the money has to come from somewhere,

and price rises are seldom popular, either.

Kathleen Wynne, Ontario’s premier,

faces a difficult election in June. Raising the

minimum wage looked like a good way to

lift her approval rating, which stood at 20%

in December. The pay boost has the sup-

port of 60% of voters. Demand for labour is

strong, which makes it less risky. Ontario’s

unemployment rate, now 5.5%, has been

lower than the national average for nearly

three years. Just 7% of the province’s work-

ers earned the previous minimum wage.

But the abrupt rise has hammered firms

with lots of low-wage workers, such as res-

taurants, hotels and farms. Marijuana

growers say they may raise prices (after the

stuff is legalised, which is supposed to hap-

pen by July 1st). Metro, a supermarket

chain, says it will replace more checkout

staff with machines. Ontario’s indepen-

dent “financial-accountability officer”,

who reports to the Speaker of the legisla-

ture, warned in September that the wage

increase could cause a net loss of 50,000

jobs. Ontario is already an expensive place

to do business, especially because of its

high energycosts, firms grumble.

The government should have helped

low-paid workers in other ways, says Julie

Kwiecinski of the Canadian Federation of

Independent Business. She suggests tax

credits, a higher personal income-tax ex-

emption and more training. But the provin-

cial government would have to pay for

these. Having promised to balance the

budget this year for the first time in a de-

cade, it preferred to shift the burden to

businesses and workers who will lose

their jobs. There is no such thing as a free

lunch, or even a free doughnut.

Tim Hortons’ ownerbelatedlyallowed

franchisees to raise prices, but not before

blaming a “reckless few” for sullying the

brand’s image. On the campaign trail, Ms

Wynne may skip the customary visit. 7

Ontario

Toil and trouble

A popular chain of coffee shops

mishandles a rise in the minimum wage

Outside powers maybe on the point of

inflicting damage on the economy as a way

to push Mr Maduro out. Rex Tillerson, the

American secretary of state, has just com-

pleted a six-day tour of several Latin Amer-

ican countries. He spent much of it trying

to build a regional response to Venezuela’s

crisis. He said that the United States had es-

tablished a working group with Canada

and Mexico to study the possibilityof re-

stricting its oil exports. The administra-

tion’s aim is to bring the disasterin Venezu-

ela “to an end”, Mr Tillerson says. There is

little doubt that it would welcome the

same fate for Mr Maduro’s rule. President

Donald Trump is said to be “energised” by

the idea. But Mr Maduro has proven him-

self to be wilier than many of his foes had

thought. A blackout in Caracas may not

portend a loss of power for the regime. 7

In Bello ("The friendly dragon") last week we said that

China is financing a motorway to Buenaventura, a

Colombian port. This is not true. Apologies.