The Economist Asia - February 10, 2018

42 The Americas The EconomistFebruary 10th 2018

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HIS year marks the 40th anniversary

of the start of the democratic wave

that swept over Latin America and turned

military dictators into political flotsam. It

is an anniversary tinged with gloom. De-

mocracy is in retreat worldwide, with

scholars identifying more than two dozen

countries that have reverted to authoritar-

ianism in this century. Many worry for its

future in Latin America, too.

In fact, democracy has held up surpris-

ingly well in the region. There are only

two clear cases of regress. Venezuela and

Nicaragua have abolished term limits and

their elected presidents now rule as dicta-

tors. Two other countries are question-

marks. In both Honduras and Bolivia, in-

cumbent presidents have got the courts to

set aside term limits. Both rule as auto-

crats. Even so, in Bolivia Evo Morales, a

successful president since 2006, may

struggle to win an election due in 2019.

Ecuador, where Rafael Correa ruled in

a similar fashion for a decade until 2017,

might have been on that list. Mr Correa’s

successor, Lenín Moreno, seemed at first

to be a placeholder. But he has proved to

be his own man. On February4th Ecua-

doreans approved in a referendum, by

64% to 36%, the reimposition of a two-

term limit for all elected officials. This

blocked Mr Correa’s future return.

A bigger worry than regress in Latin

America is political decay—“when politi-

cal systems fail to adjust to changing cir-

cumstances” because of opposition from

entrenched stakeholders, as Francis Fuku-

yama, a political scientist, putsit. Worry-

ingly, that is the case in Costa Rica, the re-

gion’s oldest and seemingly one of its

strongest democracies.

Neither of the two parties that forged

this democracy and ruled from 1948 until

2014—the National Liberation Party (PLN)

and the Social Christians—has candidates

in the run-off election for the country’s

presidency, scheduled for April 1st. Rather,

the contest will feature Fabricio Alvarado,

an evangelical pastor and gospel singer

whose main proposal is opposition to gay

marriage, and Carlos Alvarado (no rela-

tion), whose Citizens’ Action Party (PAC)

has been in power since 2014. It won only

ten of the 57 seats in the newlegislative as-

sembly in the elections on February 4th.

Fabricio, who was his party’s sole legis-

lator until those elections, starts the run-off

as the favourite. His rise is circumstantial: it

owes everything to an opinion by the Inter-

American Court of Human Rights last

month that Costa Rica should legalise gay

marriage. Only 32% of Costa Ricans agree

(though that is up from 17% in 2012), accord-

ing to LAPOP, a regionwide poll based at

Vanderbilt University in Tennessee.

But the political malaise in Costa Rica

goes much deeper. Support for the political

system, measured on a composite index

drawn up byLAPOP, has fallen from 87% in

1983 to 62% in 2016. Corruption is one rea-

son. But this was far worse in the 1970s, ob-

serves Kevin Casas Zamora, a political sci-

entist and former vice-president of Costa

Rica. “It’s a very easyexplanation for very

complex ills,” he says.

Costa Rica is in many ways a success-

ful country. It has opened up to globalisa-

tion, diversifying its economy with new

industries, such as medical devices, eco-

tourism and renewable power. But politi-

cians have failed to deal with rising crime,

income inequality and poverty. That is

partly because they have failed for many

years to approve an increase in tax rev-

enues, which at14% ofGDPare low for the

country’s level of development. And that

in turn is because of the fragmentation of

politics (there are now seven parties in

the assembly). There are simply too many

veto-wielders.

In Latin America, even as the new is

born the old tends not to die. The social-

democraticPAC wars with the PLNbut

has failed to kill it off: with 17 seats, the PLN

will be the largest party in the new assem-

bly. Costa Rica suffers a vicious circle in

which the voters seek new political actors

who fare as badly as the old ones, says Mr

Casas. The current president, Luis Guil-

lermo Solís, was a once-fresh face who

failed to fix the budget or reform taxes.

Costa Rica’s problems are a sign of the

times in the region. Evangelical Protest-

ants are a rising political force in several

countries, as “culture wars” open up a

new policy cleavage. That applies in Bra-

zil, Guatemala and Peru and bodes ill for

the rights of women and gay people. Polit-

ical fragmentation is on the rise, especial-

ly in Brazil and Colombia. Old-style par-

ties have become empty shells but in

many countries have yet to be replaced.

Yet electorates are much more de-

manding because Latin American societ-

ies have changed dramatically. Political

systems are struggling to evolve in tan-

dem. Democracy is very much alive in the

region. But it is not wholly well.

Bello The ills of Latin American democracy

Political decay is as big a threat as authoritarianism

lot of Americans are illegal immigrants,

having overstayed their visas, butthe au-

thorities usually turn a blind eye.

With 10,000 Americans a day reaching

the age of 65, the influx is likely to continue.

Membership of the Lake Chapala society

surged last year. Ajijic is not the only desti-

nation. In the nearby town of Chapala sun-

seeking seniors stroll through a renovated

lakefront park. Puerto Vallarta teems with

aged foreigners. International Living, an

American website, last year rated Mexico

the world’s best place to retire abroad. 

Though some Mexicans grumble about

pensioners pushing up house prices, many

welcome the trade they bring. Francisco

García, a farmer from Veracruz, drives 12

hours a dozen times a year to Ajijic to sell

coffee from the back of his truck. Occasion-

ally, cultures confuse each other. An offer

by a local charity manned by American

volunteers to neuter stray dogs in Ajijic

was boycotted by a church, which deems

any contraception a sin.

One deterrent to mass migration is

health care. Ajijic is cluttered with adver-

tisements for dentists and plastic surgeons.

A check-up with an English-speaking doc-

tor costs 250 pesos ($13). But Medicare, the

United States’ publicly financed medical

scheme for people over 65, does not pay

out south of the border.

Mexico’s government wants to attract

more American pensioners and their dol-

lars despite itstetchy relationship with Mr

Trump. Although the constitution bizarre-

ly bans foreigners from buying beachfront

property, the government has left open a

legal loophole that lets them do it. It has

streamlined the issuing of residency visas.

Javier Degollado, Chapala’s mayor, has

commissioned a 28-page plan for tennis

courts, golf courses and museums. Most

Mexicans loathe Mr Trump. American visi-

tors, of all stripes, are another matter. 7