The EconomistJanuary 20th 2018 China 29W
HEN is a country with its own territory, laws, elected gov-
ernment and army not a country? Answer: when China
deems it so. In recent days Chinese officials have ordered foreign
businesses, including airlines operating flights to China, to “cor-
rect” websites that list Taiwan as a country, as well as remove im-
ages of the island-state’s flag. Censorseven shut down the Chi-
nese website of Marriott, one of the world’s biggest hotel chains,
for a week as punishment for categorising Taiwan as a country in
a customerquestionnaire (the firm caused additional offence by
putting Hong Kong, Macau and Tibet in the same category,
which—to be fair to China—they are not).
China’s rabidly nationalist netizens have even called for a
boycott of Marriott. But more than losing business, foreign oper-
ators in China fear running foul of sweeping new cyber- and na-
tional-security laws. Among much else, these prohibit anything
deemed to “damage national unity”. The apologies issued by
some operators were party-speak. Marriott said, “We absolutely
will not support anyseparatist organisation thatwill undermine
China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Delta airlines apol-
ogised for hurting the feelings of the Chinese people. Zara, a Euro-
pean fashion chain, even promised a “self-examination”.
For Taiwanese, it is more proof that China is out to squeeze
them until the pips squeak. The Communist Party has never
ruled Taiwan, but considers it a sacred mission to bring the island
under its control. China threatens force should Taiwan formally
declare that it will remain independent for ever. The party views
even “peaceful separation” as an abomination.
China mixes bullying with blandishments. The bullying, of
which the move against foreign websites is part, is meant to
shrink Taiwan’s diplomatic space and exert psychological pres-
sure. Since Tsai Ing-wen became the island’s president in May
2016, China has shut down high-level contacts across the Taiwan
Strait that had burgeoned under her predecessor, Ma Ying-jeou.
Unlike his Kuomintang (KMT) party, with its historical roots in
China, Ms Tsai’s rulingDemocratic Progressive Party aspires in its
charter to formal independence. The president herself, a pragma-
tist, has made plain her goodwill, by promising from the start that
she will not rock the cross-strait boat. The independence clause
lies dormant. She blocked attempts to expand a new referendumlaw to allow plebiscites on mattersof sovereignty, including on
Taiwan’s official name (the Republic of China).
But for China none of this is good enough. It views the referen-
dum law as a step towards a vote on independence. It has even at-
tacked laudable new legislation aimed at redressing human-
rights abuses that occurred during the years ofKMT dictatorship.
China sees the bill as an attempt to erase all sense of a Chinese
identity among Taiwanese: in those days, the KMT was proud of
its Chinese nationalism, even though it hated the Communists.
Above all, China is furious with Ms Tsai for refusing to acknowl-
edge the “1992 consensus” between the two sides: thatboth Tai-
wan and the mainland belong to a single China, and that they
agree to disagree what exactly China means.
So Taiwan is in the doghouse. Some policymakers were re-
lieved that China’s leader, Xi Jinping, did not suggest he would get
even tougher with it when he spoke at a big party gathering in Oc-
tober. Even so, his uncompromising remarks about Taiwan drew
the longest applause of anything he said. Soon after that meeting,
he told President Donald Trump that Taiwan (not North Korea’s
nukes) was the most critical issue in Sino-American relations. Mr
Xi talks of China’s “great rejuvenation” by 2049. That surely im-
plies the return of Taiwan to the fold by that date.
The pressure continues, then. On the diplomatic front, the 20-
strong band of countries that recognise Taiwan is bound to be
whittled down further, following Panama’s switch to China last
year—Honduras, Palau and St Lucia could be next. Earlier this
month China reneged on an agreement with Taiwan by an-
nouncing four new commercial air routes that run either close to
the median line dividing the Taiwan Strait or close to Taiwan’s
main offshore islands. Taiwan described this unilateral move as a
threat to air safety and to the island’s security. Butit is powerless.
Taiwan is not a member of the International Civil Aviation Orga-
nisation, whose Chinese head previously ran the civil-aviation
authority that declared the opening of the air corridors.
China has been flexing military muscle, too. Since 2016 its war-
planes have carried out “island-encircling” patrols. China’s state
media have published images of these, with Taiwan’s mountains
in the background. A recent exercise in northern China involved
storming a full-sized mock-up of Taiwan’s presidential palace.Come on over sometime
All this is out of the old playbook. Mr Xi’s innovation is to single
out young Taiwanese and to pile on the blandishments. Colleges
offer Taiwanese teachers better pay than they could get in Tai-
wan. Chinese provinces are opening research centres aimed at
young Taiwanese. In the southern city of Dongguan, Taiwanese
tech entrepreneurs can get free startup-money and subsidised
flats. Over 400,000 Taiwanese now work in China. The young in
particular are crossingthe strait in droves.
Lin Chong-pin, a Taiwanese scholar and former senior official,
calls this Mr Xi’s “soft prong”. In some respects it seems to be re-
shaping attitudes towards China. It does not help Ms Tsai that she
has failed to make much progress on her promise to create more
opportunities for the young. Taiwan’s economy remains slug-
gish. The young think older generations get the better deal. But
she gets the blame fortricky cross-strait relations more than Mr Xi
does. A recent poll even shows Taiwanese feeling more warmly
towards Mr Xi than to Ms Tsai. They do not admire China’s politi-
cal culture. But Mr Xi may be nurturing a reluctance among
young Taiwanese to bite the hand that feeds them. 7Hard prong, soft prong
China is getting tougher on Taiwan’s government. It is also luring its peopleBanyan