38 The Americas The EconomistJanuary 20th 2018
2W
HAT should be done when a re-
gime remains in power by dictatori-
al means while pitching its people into
penury? That is the question that Venezu-
ela’s opposition has been grappling with
since it won a legislative election in 2015,
only to see Nicolás Maduro’s government
use its puppet courts to strip power from
the legitimate parliament.
The opposition has tried two strat-
egies. One wassustained protest. That
was met with violence: about 120 people
died in protests last year, many at the
hands of the security forces. Despite the
protests, Mr Maduro created a new, hand-
picked assembly to replace the parlia-
ment. (The opposition boycotted a vote in
July that was intended to give this new
body a figleaf of respectability.)
The second track has been to try to ne-
gotiate with the regime for a free and fair
presidential election due laterthis year. In
theory the two strategies are not incom-
patible, but in practice pursuit of both has
divided the opposition (which has paid a
high price for its failure to forge a single
party with a single leader). Those splits
and the regime’s refinement of fraud and
clientelism—votes for food and cash—al-
lowed Mr Maduro to win the recent re-
gional and municipal elections.
In talks with partof the opposition this
month in the Dominican Republic the
government has been uncompromising.
It has barred the two most popular oppo-
sition leaders from running for president.
It shows no sign of agreeing to a non-par-
tisan electoral authority or to the interna-
tional election monitoring that the oppo-
sition demands. In desperation, the
opposition may settle for much less.
Venezuela is not standing still. Living
conditions continue to deteriorate. On
top of shortages of food and medicines
and rampant crime, the country has nowentered hyperinflation. The central bank
has stopped publishing regular statistics.
According to an estimate bythe finance
committee of the national assembly, prices
rose by 2,616% in 2017, and by 85% in the
month of December alone, as the govern-
ment finances itself by printing money.
(Most economistsdefine hyperinflation as
being 50% or more permonth.) Despite reg-
ular increases, the minimum wage has lost
most of its value.
In the 1970s Venezuela was the richest
country in Latin America. Partly because
of a fall in the oil price in 2014, but mainly
because of the anti-market policies of Mr
Maduro and his predecessor and mentor,
Hugo Chávez, the economy this year will
be a third smaller than it was in 2013. (In ac-
knowledgment of that decline, and of the
poor quality of Venezuela’s data, this week
we have replaced the country in our statis-
ticspages with Peru, whose economy will
soon be bigger. We will continue publish-
ing statistics on Venezuela on our website.)
Venezuela’s desperate plight is prompt-
ing some desperate thinking. Warning of
impending famine, Ricardo Hausmann, a
Venezuelan economist at Harvard Univer-sity, this month called for the parliament
to appoint a new president who would
call for international military action to
overthrow the regime.
This is a bad idea, and unlikely to come
about. No Latin American government
will back it. Nor, probably, will Donald
Trump, though he has mused about it.
And it risks large-scale bloodshed: Vene-
zuela has a well-equipped army. At least
some of its forces would fight, as would
pro-regime militias.
More likely is guerrilla action by Vene-
zuelans. In a small way, this has begun.
On January 15th the security forces cor-
nered Óscar Pérez, a dissidentpolice cap-
tain who last month led a raid on a Na-
tional Guard armoury, making off with a
cache of weapons. Mr Pérez tried to sur-
render, but was summarily killed along
with six followers. This contrasts with the
leniency shown to Chávez: the democrat-
ic government that he tried to overthrow
in 1992, in a coup attempt that left 67 peo-
ple dead, not only spared his life but par-
doned him after just two years in jail.
Mr Maduro’s ruthlessness betrays in-
security. His regime may have crushed
the opposition for now, but it is under
strain. The country has seen another
round of looting and protests over food
shortages. A fall in oil output is offsetting
the recent increase in its price. Financial
sanctions imposed by Mr Trump have
made it hard for Mr Maduro to raise mon-
ey abroad. There are reports of sympathy
for Mr Pérez among the security forces.
In one respect Mr Hausmann raises a
valid point. Latin America should not
stand idly by in the face of an unprece-
dented and entirely man-made calamity
in Venezuela. The region could put more
diplomatic and financial pressure on the
regime. There is no guarantee of success—
but the alternatives are worse.Bello The threat of violence in Venezuela
Armed action against the dictatorship is risky and ill-advised, but it has starteded houses, many pelumaniacos were con-
vinced that he had been cursed.
The show’s popularity testifies to Mexi-
co’s love of all things supernatural. “Mexi-
can culture is very mystical,” says Ricardo
Vázquez, a director of programming at TV
Azteca, which broadcasts “Extranormal”.
That programme began airing in 2007 after
Laura Rivas, a medium with a five-minute
horoscope segment on a morning show in
Guadalajara, one day started interpreting
the dreams of those who called in. “We re-
alised when she started talking about
ghosts, or dreams, or something paranor-
mal, the ratings wentup,” says MrVázquez.“Extranormal” has nearly 4m viewers.
Some people think the demise of “The
Hairy Hand” shows that Mexicans are be-
coming less interested in eerie entertain-
ment. Macabre movies have also entered a
dead zone. More than 5m people thronged
cinemas to see the four Mexican-made
horror films released in 2007, according to
the Mexican Institute of Cinematography.
In 2017 the three scary flicks released at-
tracted just 250,000 people.
But othersigns suggest that Mexicans’
fondness for morbidity is alive and well.
The Day of the Dead, a holiday on which
they wear ghoulish costumesand visit thegraves of loved ones, remains as popular
as ever. Last year Mórbido Fest, a horror-
film festival, held itstenth and biggest edi-
tion, so the genre may not be dead after all.
Some famous Mexican film directors,
including the winners of two of the past
five Golden Globe awards for directing, be-
gan by working on “La Hora Marcada”, a
horror show on television. After getting his
Golden Globe on January 7th for “The
Shape of Water”, Guillermo del Toro was
asked why he has such an affinity for
themes of fantasy and terrordespite his
cheerful demeanour. He immediately re-
plied: “I’m Mexican.” 7