44 Europe The EconomistJanuary 27th 2018A
FTER nearly four years of war in eastern
Ukraine, and more than 10,000
deaths, reports from international moni-
tors in the region sound like a grim broken
record. On January 19th: 340 explosions.
On January 20th: 240 explosions. On Janu-
ary 21st: 195 explosions and two middle-
aged civilians hit by rifle fire while travel-
ling in a bus near a separatist checkpoint in
the town of Olenivka. “One had blood cov-
ering the left side of his face and was hold-
ing gauze to it and the otherhad gunshot
wounds in his neck and left cheek,” the
monitors from the Organisation for Securi-
ty and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) re-
ported this week. One of the men ended
up in hospital; the other died atthe site of
the attack.
The Minsk agreements, a peace plan
signed in early 2015, are meant to prevent
such incidents. Yet an end to the conflict in
the Donbas region remains a distant
dream. Russia bears the brunt of the blame
for failing to rein in its separatist allies in
the area and secure a ceasefire. But Ukraine
in turn has balked at taking some political
steps outlined in the deal, saying they are
impossible until security improves; many
in Kiev see the accords as a raw deal. West-
ern negotiators hope that keeping dialogue
with Russia open may yet bear fruit. A qui-
et day on the front on January 23rd shows
“peace ispossible with political will,” says
America’s special representative to the
conflict, Kurt Volker. On January 26th Mr
Volker will meet his Russian counterpart,
Vladislav Surkov, in Dubai for the first time
since the American government approved
plans last year to provide lethal defensive
weapons to Ukraine, a move that then-
President Barack Obama had long resisted.
The meeting will also come on theheels of a contentious new Ukrainian bill
aimed at redefining national policy to-
wards the Donbas. President Petro Porosh-
enko, who pushed the bill, says it will
“pave the way for reintegration of the occu-
pied Ukrainian lands”. The legislation de-
clares Russia an “aggressor”, and calls the
separatist-controlled parts of Donetsk and
Luhansk “temporarily occupied territo-
ries”, like Crimea—thus making it crystal-
clear that Ukraine blames Russia, not local
elements, forthe secession. Italso shakes
up the local command and expands presi-
dential authority to conduct operations
there without imposing martial law. Critics
of Mr Poroshenko argue that the bill gives
him unnecessarily far-reaching powers,
and protestors clashed outside parliament
ahead of its passage. Analysts expect themeasure to have little effect on the ground.
Instead, it looks more like domestic politi-
cal posturing by Mr Poroshenko, who faces
a tough re-election fight in 2019.
Unsurprisingly, Russia reacted with in-
dignation. “You cannot call this anything
but preparation for a new war,” declared
Russia’s foreign ministry, warning that the
bill risked “a dangerous escalation in Uk-
raine with unpredictable consequences
for world peace and security”. Russian offi-
cials say the bill undermines the peace
plan. “Kiev has gone from sabotaging the
Minsk agreements to burying them,” said
Konstantin Kosachyov, chairman of the
foreign-affairs committee in the Russian
parliament’s upper house. Most would say
the Minsk agreements have long been on
life support, if they are not dead already. 7UkraineCalling a bully a
bully
MOSCOW
Legislators bicker, diplomats gab and
conflict rolls on in eastern UkraineKHARKIV LUHANSKDONETSKDNIPROPETROVSKZAPORIZHIASea of
AzovRUSSIAUKRAINEOlenivkaDonetsk
DONBASCRIMEALuhanskLine of
Contact100 kmKiev
UKRAINEFinland’s presidentMr Congeniality
I
N EUROPE’S frozen north, two presi-
dents are standing for re-election: Rus-
sia’s Vladimir Putin and Finland’s some-
what lesser-known Sauli Niinisto. Both
are likely to win with huge majorities.
Some 70% of Finns back Mr Niinisto,
polls say—a Putinesque level of support.
Mr Niinisto looks likely to glide to victory
in the first round of voting on January
28th. In a world where outsiders and
populists are on the march, how does he
do it? Unlike Mr Putin, he has none of the
advantages of being an autocrat; Finland
is one of the world’s freest democracies.
True, the Finnish presidency is mainly
a symbolic role, focused on glad-handing
foreigners and with little power over
internal politics. Yet Mr Niinisto has a
reputation for competence at both. As the
Speaker of parliament, he won applause
by encouragingMPs to travel second-
class and book cheaper hotels. When he
was finance minister in the late 1990s he
slashed publicdebt from 60% to just over
40% ofGDP, tickling the Finnish love of
frugality. He also oversaw the transition
to the euro.
Mr Niinisto is, besides, a skilled retail
politician. He shares details of his private
life in tabloids: his much younger wife, a
poet, is expecting a baby; his dog recently
became an internet star after trying to
steal the presidential Christmas ham. Mr
Niinisto once called a radio nature show,
identifying himself only as “Sauli from
Naantali”, to ask about invasive wild
parsnips. He roller-blades, too. His closest
competitor, Pekka Haavisto of the Green
Alliance, has struggled to climb above
10% in the polls. Laura Huhtasaari of the
populist-nationalist Finns Party (formerlyknown as the True Finns) has failed to
capitalise on her party’s base.
But luck also has something to do
with it. Finland recently emerged from a
recession, and is still riding high after the
country’s centennial celebrations—which
Mr Niinisto largely oversaw—in late 2017.
Finland also shares a 1,300km (800-mile)
border with Russia. Finns do not want a
maverick wrecking the carefully bal-
anced relationship with their scary
neighbour. On the world stage, Mr Nii-
nisto has portrayed himself as a mes-
senger between superpowers. Last year
alone he met Donald Trump, Xi Jinping
and Mr Putin. Mr Niinisto saysthat, as
president, the most important thing is to
act in a way that won’t “blow the world
to pieces”. He is surely right there.Sauli Niinisto loves dogs, hates wild parsnips and won’t do anything rashРЕЛИЗ
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