46 Europe The EconomistApril 14th 2018
12 and securing amandate for them,the pres-
ident has managed to tick off a fair number
of items on his to-do list. His ministers have
tried to marginalise hard-line unions. Mr
Macron is also hoping to lean on public
opinion, explaining, for instance, that his
plans for pensions and training are not just
about penny-pinching.
If Mr Macron is nudging France in the
right direction, why then is there so much
discontent, on and off the street? From a
high of 57% last June, his approval rating
has dropped to just 40%. One answer is
that he is touching vested interests. Fully
63% of retirees, for instance, disapprove of
his presidency, according to an Ifop poll.
Another is that, in his quest to govern
from on high, Mr Macron tends to come
across as disdainful, and out of touch with
ordinary folk. The French like the way he
has improved their country’s image. As
many as 66% think he defends the country
well abroad. Yet only 34% of the French
judge the former investment banker close
to the everyday preoccupations of his fel-
low citizens. He has been tagged “the presi-
dent of the rich”.
All French leaders are haunted by the
memory of 1968. Mr Macron, though, was
born nearly a decade later, and seems to
have less of a complex about it than most.
Of all his reforms, theSNCFrestructuring is
not the most radical. But thecheminotre-
mains a romantic figure, and high-speed
railways are an emblem of French techno-
logical prowess. Public opinion could
swing behind the strikes. The railways
may not be Mr Macron’s defining reform.
But his handling of the conflict could be the
decisive moment of his presidency. 7V
IKTOR ORBAN, the Hungarian prime
minister, swept back to power on April
8th for the third time in a row, as his right-
wing Fidesz party took 134 seats in the 199-
seat parliament. His opponents were left in
the dust: Jobbik, a nationalist party now
moving to the centre, won 25, while the So-
cialists and their allies took 20. Fidesz won
thanks to an ugly but effective campaign
that focused almost entirely on supposed
threats to Hungarian sovereignty from
George Soros, a Hungarian philanthropist,
the EU and the United Nations.
Mr Orban’s fourth term in office (he
also governed from 1998-2002) is likely to
see him entrench his vision of an “illiberal
democracy”, and cause further problemsfor liberal NGOs, especially those dealing
with migration. It will doubtless deepen
Hungary’s cultural and generational di-
vide, widening the rift between liberal Bu-
dapest, which mostly voted against him,
and the more traditional countryside.
Doubtless, it will inspire nationalist dema-
gogues in other parts of Europe, too. Mr Or-
ban, now Hungary’s longest-serving prime
minister since the end of communism,
greeted his own victory by declaring that
he intends to push for a Europe of sover-
eign states, and to oppose the develop-
ment of a “United States of Europe”. Liber-
al NGOs and civic organisations are
bracing themselves for a further crack-
down when a new tranche of laws, nick-
named the “Stop Soros” package, is passed.
The laws require NGOs that deal with mi-
gration to obtain a government licence and
to pay a 25% tax on foreign donations. The
government does not want to close down
such NGOs, but to close the “legal loop-
holes” around them, said Zoltan Kovacs, a
government spokesman. “They believe
there are no limits to how they operate, but
there are limits.”
Mr Orban’s thumping victory was over-
shadowed by strong criticism from the Or-
ganisation for Security and Co-operation
in Europe, which had deployed observers.
The OSCE claimed the campaign was
marked by “intimidating and xenophobic
rhetoric, media bias and opaque campaign
financing”, while public television “clearly
favoured the ruling coalition”. But the
OSCE also said that “fundamental rights
and freedoms were respected overall”, and
that election-day organisation was profes-
sional and transparent; Hungarian media
reported a few local anomalies. Govern-
ment officials accused the OSCE of over-
stepping its remit. “This is political content.
The OSCE’s role is procedural,” says Mr
Kovacs. “They have no mandate for this.”
The result was a shattering blow for
Hungary’s fractious left-wing and liberal
parties. The left, says Gyorgy Schopflin, a
FideszMEP, should give up its “exhausted
proposals” to undo everything Fidesz has
done, and rethink what it means to be left-
wing and Hungarian.
Concerns over media diversity will
grow after Lajos Simicska, a former ally of
Mr Orban and the publisher ofMagyar
Nemzet,an opposition paper, closed it
down this week because of financial pro-
blems. That follows the closure in 2016 ofNepszabadsag, a left-wing daily.
Ideologyaside, many Hungarians vot-
ed with their wallets. Buoyed by lavish EU
subsidies—sometimes equivalent to 6% of
GDP—the economy is in decent shape. Un-
employment is down and GDPis growing
at a steady pace of 4% or so. In Budapest
and provincial cities, especially in the
more prosperous west of the country,
gyms and bars, cafés and restaurants are
crowded with young professionals with
disposable income. For much of the mid-
dle class, “Orbanomics” is working—so
long as Europe keeps on subsidising it. 7HungaryViktor victorious
BUDAPEST
Hungary’s prime ministerwins another
landslide; fears for democracy deepenNo contest
Hungary, seats in the National Assembly, 2018*
Total: 199Sources: ParlGov;
National Election Office*Preliminary results; separate tallies for Fidesz and KDNP unavailable
†Left/right determination from ParlGovFidesz-Christian Democrats (KDNP)
134Jobbik
25 3MSZP
20LMP
8DK
9Independent /Other
Left of centreParty ideology†
Right of centreW
HEN Recep Tayyip Erdogan travelled
to Greece late last year, the first such
trip by a Turkish president in more than six
decades, hopes surfaced that he and his
hosts might hammer out a formula to re-
duce tensions. The past couple of months
have disappointed the optimists. Rather
than coming to grips with old grievances,
Turkey and Greece are creating new ones
instead—in the skies and in the seas.
On March 27th a Turkish court denied
bail to two Greek soldiers arrested weeks
earlier after crossing the border with Tur-
key. The soldiers say they strayed into Turk-
ish territory because of thick snow and fog.Turkey and GreeceRough seas
ISTANBUL
Trouble is brewing in the eastern
MediterraneanLEBANONCYPRUSTURKEYJORDANISRAELEGYPTLIBYABULGARIAGREECESYRIABlack SeaMediterranean SeaAegean
SeaAnkaraAthensProposed gas pipelineTurkish-Cypriot
Greek-CypriotRhodesKardak/Imia
islandsGAZA STRIPJerusalemIstanbul200 km