36 The Americas The EconomistJune 9th 2018
M
AY 30th was Mothers’ Day in Nicara-
gua. On that day hundreds of thou-
sands of people marched in Managua, the
country’s capital, in solidarity with moth-
ers of students who had been killed in prot-
ests against the government of Daniel Or-
tega, the authoritarian president. By the
end of the day more mothers had cause to
mourn. Masked men fired on the crowd at
sundown, killing 16. In Masaya, a town
near Managua, nine people, including a 15-
year-old boy, were killed by security forces
on June 2nd. Human-rights groups are in-
vestigating claims that a plane sprayed cy-
permethrin, an insecticide, on citizens.
By the count of the Inter-American
Commission on Human Rights, at least 127
people have been killed and 1,000 injured
in protests that began in April. They started
as a reaction to cuts in pensions, which Mr
Ortega imposed after his regime had frit-
tered away much of the national pension
pot. He later reversed thecuts, but other
grievances, including corruption, presi-
dential power grabs and the elevation of
Mr Ortega’s wife, Rosario Murillo, to the
vice-presidency, continue to inspire prot-
ests. State media suggested that the killings
were caused by protesters to stir up anti-
government sentiment.
The repression has disrupted an alli-
ance with business formed by Mr Ortega,
who led the left-wing Sandinista revolu-
tion against a thuggish dictatorship in the
1970s and returned to power after an elec-
tion in 2006. Business leaders gave him a
free hand in politics, which he used to take
control of independent institutions, sub-
vert opposition partiesand rig subsequent
elections. In return, MrOrtega adopted
business-friendlypolicies. That led to eco-
nomic growth of better than 4% a year on
average from 2007 to 2017; inflows of for-
eign investment more than trebled over
that period.
Mr Ortega’s brutality has exposed that
bargain as morally bankrupt and political-
ly unstable. The unrest since April has cost
the economy $600m, about 4% ofGDP,
says José Adán Aguerri, the head of Cosep,
an employers’ association. Hundreds of
millions of dollars have left the country.
Nicaragua’s three most powerful business-
men called for early elections in interviews
with newspapers. “The model that got us
here is exhausted,” said Carlos Pellas, Nica-
ragua’s only dollar billionaire. Business
leaders now talk openly of a post-Ortega
era and of a “permanent consensus-seek-ing dialogue” between the government
and such groups as students, farmers and
representatives of civil society.
Hoping to end the turmoil Mr Ortega
agreed to participate in talks with his foes,
mediated by Catholic bishops. This has
not allayed his opponents’ anger. In tele-
vised meetings last month the president
listened impassively as teenage students
called him a murderer and read out a list of
the dead. Opposition groups want the ne-
gotiations to be about restoring democratic
institutions and holding early elections.
Mr Ortega refused to talk about that. The
bishops withdrew from the talks, in effect
ending them. Then came the Mothers’ Day
deaths, which destroyed the trust that
might have allowed them to prosper if
they resume.
This leaves Mr Ortega with few choices.
To become an outright dictator, like Nicolás
Maduro in Venezuela, may not be possible.
Nicaragua’s private sector is more power-
ful than was Venezuela’s in 2013, when Mr
Maduro became the country’s president,
points out Mateo Jarquín, a graduate stu-
dent in political science at Harvard Univer-
sity. No one knows how the armed forces
would respond to an imposition of dicta-
torship. Mr Ortega has largely abandoned
the left-wing ideology that helps sustain
Mr Maduro’s tyranny.
The alternative to continued repression
is to accede tothe opposition’s demandsfor an early election, probably in 2019, two
years before it is due. A fair vote would
probably end Mr Ortega’s rule. His foes
will not participate in an election if he
runs. His candidacy would only be legal
because the national assembly scrapped
presidential term limits at his bidding in- The opposition would also boycott
the vote if Mr Ortega nominates his wife,
Ms Murillo, to run in his stead.
Before anyelection the opposition will
demand the dismantlingof the machinery
that Mr Ortega set up to perpetuate his
power. The changes needed include re-
placing all seven members of the electoral
council, says Juan Sebastián Chamorro,
the director of Funides, a think-tank fi-
nanced by the private sector. If Mr Ortega
does not agree to such demands, calls for
his immediate resignation will grow loud-
er. Some opponents favour a national
strike, like the one that brought Mr Ortega
to power in 1979, as a last resort.
The last time he lost an election, in 1990,
the Sandinistas did not go quietly. On the
eve of the transition the central bank trans-
ferred millions of dollars to government
loyalists on Mr Ortega’s orders. As bureau-
crats vacated their offices they carried
desks and chairs with them. Nicaraguans
call that episode of asset-strippingla piña-
ta. The carnage of Mother’s Day shows that
the price of getting rid of Mr Ortega this
time will be even higher. 7
NicaraguaOrtega’s last act
A slaughter ofthe president’s
opponents will not keep him in powerParts of Guatemala’s lush green countryside became deathly grey after the Fuego
volcano, 25km (16 miles) south-west of Guatemala City, started its strongest eruption
in 44 years on June 3rd. The volcano sent ash billowing 6km into the air, closing the
capital’s airport. It set off lahars—fast-flowing mixtures of rock, debris, ash and
water—and red-hot pyroclastic flows, which buried several nearby villages. The
confirmed death toll has climbed to 99. Around 200 people are still missing.
Guatemala’s president, Jimmy Morales, declared three days of mourning. Fuego’s fury