India Today – August 13, 2018

24 INDIA TODAY AUGUST 13, 2018

issuance of a timely two billion dollar
credit line and the Isla mic Development
Bank’s four-and-a-half billion dollar oil
payment allowance will ease some pres-
sure and help the country build a runway
for better conditions when it approaches
the IMF for loans.”

E

xtra liquidity, like a couple of
billion dollars from the Saudi
crown prince, is on its way. And
an IMF bailout, the 12th in
three decades, seems imminent. Accord-
ing to Bloomberg, external debt and li-
abilities have swelled to 76 per cent to
10.6 trillion rupees ($92 billion) since
June 2013, hiking the ratio up to 31 per
cent of gross domestic product, the high-
est in over half a decade. The IMF esti-
mates that Pakistan’s debt will continue
to rise as it has the highest finan cing
need as a percentage of GDP in emerging
markets over the next two years. Thus,
the need for an IMF bailout is not a drill.
Despite his anti-lender views, Asad
Umar, also deemed as a potential foreign
minister, tweeted again, three days after
his party’s victory, saying “no option in-
cluding IMF is ruled out”. But US secre-
tary of state Mike Pompeo’s recent inter-
view to CNBC, where he clearly warned
that there was no “rationale” for an IMF
bailout for Islamabad if the funding was
used to pay off Beijing, didn’t help the lo-
cal markets. And despite the announce-
ment of accountability and austerity by
Khan—he has said he will take a small
house in the minister’s enclave and not
live in the ostentatious prime minister’s
palace—actual policy measures, the
shape of the cabinet, the future of ties
with China, the US and India and, of
course, his chemistry with the generals
in Rawalpindi’s General Headquarters,
are key questions.

THE KHAN OF KHANS

Born of Mongolia. From the Turkic,

Kan. From the Persian, Kagan. From

the Siberian, Qayan. From the Hindu-

stani, Khan Sahib. Vote him in or out,

Imran’s last name inspires, and literally

means, leadership. But titles of power in

Pakistan come less with nomenclature

(Sharif means ‘sheriff’ in Arabic, and

look where he ended up) and more with

sheer might. Enter, the Pakistan army.

There are three schools when it

comes to projecting the incoming prime

minister’s ties with GHQ.

First, there are the Clash Theorists,

who think Khan is too much of his own

man, too much of a loose cannon, and

too larger-than-life to actually survive

five years (and three chiefs, if the three-

year chief of army staff term of service

is calculated) with the military till he

completes his term in 2023. Their argu-

ments are based on personality analysis,

but rubbished by the likes of Shahzad A.

Chaudhry, a former ambassador and re-

tired air vice-marshal in the air force. “I

don’t think Khan will be his ‘own man’

in the selfish sense,” he says. “He does

have the capacity and capability to get

everyone—the ISI, the Foreign Office,

the national security apparatus, the par-

liament on one point of consensus. He’s

going to be Pakistan’s man, not his own.

Also, he doesn’t have much of a choice.

Our challenges are such, that whether

muftis [civilians] or khakis [soldiers],

we have to cooperate.”

Then, there are the Puppeteers, who

think Khan is Rawalpindi’s stooge, that

his ascent has been stage-managed, since

1996 till last week, and that he’ll deliver,

in a populist yet no-questions-asked

way whatever the cantonments dictate.

Clearly, they haven’t read recent politi-

BEFORE THE

PREMIER

LEAGUE

From leading the Pakistani

cricket team to three

marriages to becoming the

country’s prime minister, it

has been a long journey for

Imran Khan

MUCH MARRIED

MAN With spiritual

advisor-turned-wife

Bushra Wattoo at

the nikah ceremony

this February; with

second wife Reham

in January 2015

OVER STORY
PAKISTAN

AFP