IFR International - 20.10.2018

(Nancy Kaufman) #1

CONVICTIONûIS vûSAIDûAûSECONDûBANKERûh4HATSû
WHEREûYOURûCLEARINGûPRICEûISv
4HEûPERSISTENTûVOLATILITYûISûALSOûGIVINGûRISEû
TOûAûWIDEûRANGEûOFûVIEWSûONûPRICINGûAMONGû
SYNDICATESûFORûRECENTûDEALSû!NDûWHILEûSOMEû
BORROWERSûAREûHAPPYûTOûTAKEûAûCONSERVATIVEû
APPROACHûnû#AIXA"ANK ûFORûEXAMPLE ûOFFEREDû
AûBPû.)0ûATû)04SûONûLASTû7EDNESDAYSûõBNû
lVE
YEARû3.0ûnûOTHERSûAREûLOATHûTOûDOûSOûTOû
AVOIDûPRICINGûWIDERûTHANûTHEYûHADûHOPED û
SHOULDûORDERSûDISAPPOINT
)TûISûWORTHûPOINTINGûOUTûTHATû!EGONûISû
UNDERûNOûPRESSUREûTOûISSUEû7HILEûITûHASû
SOMEûõBNûOFûGRANDFATHEREDû4IERûûANDû
4IERûûSECURITIESûITûHOPESûTOûRElNANCE ûITûHASû
UNTILûûTOûDOûSOû!FTERûTHAT ûTHEûSECURITIESû
WOULDûBEûTREATEDûASûLIABILITIES
"UTûTHEûDECISIONûTOûWAITûFORûBETTERûPRICINGû
HASûCOMEûATûAûCOSTûFORûOTHERSû)TALYSû"ANCAû
#ARIGEûISûPERHAPSûTHEûBESTûEXAMPLEûnûITû
POSTPONEDûAû4IERûûTRADEûINû-ARCHû#AAn
### ûAFTERûTHEûPRICEûPROVEDûTOOûHIGHûTOû
SWALLOW ûANDûISûNOWûINûEFFECTûLOCKEDûOUT
/THERûBANKSûAREûSAIDûTOûHAVEûBEENûWAITINGû
TOûANNOUNCEû!4ûDEALSûFORûNINEûMONTHSûORû
EVENûLONGER ûUNDERLININGûTHEûRISKûTHATû
lXATINGûONûAûYIELDûTARGETûMAYûTHWARTû
ISSUANCEûENTIRELYû!USTRIANûNATIONALû
CHAMPIONû%RSTEû'ROUPû"ANKûHASûYETûTOûBRINGû
THEû0.#ûITûANNOUNCEDûINû-AY ûWHENûITû
DEEMEDûTHEûPOTENTIALûPRICEûUNATTRACTIVE
"UTûAFTERûTWOûQUARTERSûWHEREûGOODûDAYSû
HAVEûBEENûFEWûANDûFARûBETWEEN ûBORROWERSû
AREûlNALLYûWISINGûUP ûTHEûlRSTûBANKERûSAID
h)SSUERSûAREûGETTINGûUSEDûTOûTHATûREALITY û
WHICHûMEANSûWHENEVERû;THEûMARKET=û
STABILISESûANDûFEELSûOKAY ûYOUREûDElNITELYû
GOINGûTOûSEEûPEOPLEûJUMPINGûFORWARDûYOUû
HAVEûNOûCHOICEv


NON-CORE CURRENCIES


BFCM EXTENDS FRENCH SUPPLY
IN AUSTRALIA


BANQUE FEDERATIVE DU CREDIT MUTUEL ûRATEDû
!A!! ûBECAMEûTHEûFOURTHû&RENCHûBANKûTOû
ISSUEû!USTRALIANûDOLLARûBONDSûTHISûYEARûWITHû
LASTû4UESDAYSû!Mû53M ûDEBUTû
+ANGAROOûSALEûOFûlVE
YEARûmOATING
RATEû
SENIORûPREFERREDûNOTES
4HEûOFFERINGûUNDERû"&#-Sû%-4.û
PROGRAMME ûVIAûJOINTûLEADûMANAGERSûHSBC
ANDûNAB ûWASûPRICEDûATûPAR ûINûLINEûWITHû
THREE
MONTHû""37ûPLUSûBPûAREAû
GUIDANCE
/Nû/CTOBERû û".0û0ARIBASûISSUEDû!Mû
OFû
YEARûNON
CALLûû4IERûû%UROBONDSûATû
MID
SWAPSûPLUSûBP
/Nû3EPTEMBERû û3OCIETEû'ENERALEûSOLDû
!MûOFûû
YEARûSENIORûNON
PREFERREDû%UROBONDSûALONGSIDEûAû!Mû
lVE
YEARûNON
PREFERREDûTRANCHE


/Nû!PRILûû"0#%ûPRINTEDû!MûOFû
SENIORûNON
PREFERREDû
YEARû+ANGAROOSûINû
TANDEMûWITHûAû!MûlVE
YEARûSENIORû
PREFERREDû+ANGAROOûOFFERING

COVERED BONDS


EUROS


SANTANDER MAKES SHAKY RETURN
TO COVEREDS

BANCO SANTANDERSûlRSTûEUROûCOVEREDûBONDû
SINCEû*ANUARYûûMETûWITHûLOWERûTHANû
EXPECTEDûDEMANDûASûAû3PANISHûCOURTûRULINGû
HITûITSûBANKINGûSECTOR ûBUTûTHEûNATIONALû
CHAMPIONûMANAGEDûTOûPRICEûAûõBNûDEALû
WHEREûOTHERûINSTITUTIONSûMAYûHAVEûFAILED ûAû
LEADûSAID
7HILEû3ANTANDERûWASûINûTHEûMARKETûLASTû
4HURSDAY û3PAINSû3UPREMEû#OURTûRULEDûTHATû
BANKSûnûRATHERûTHANûCLIENTSûnûMUSTûPAYû
CERTAINûTAXESûRELATEDûTOûMORTGAGEûLOANS û
POTENTIALLYûCOSTINGûLENDERSûHUNDREDSûOFû
MILLIONSûOFûEUROSûINûCOMPENSATION
4HATûPROMPTEDûAûSELL
OFFûINû3PANISHû
SECURITIESûnû!4ûPAPERûDROPPEDûUPûTOûû
POINTS ûFORûEXAMPLE ûWHILEûAûõBNûû
/CTOBERûû3.0ûTHATû#AIXA"ANKûSOLDûLASTû
7EDNESDAYûATûONEûPOINTûWIDENEDûBPûTOû
BPûOVERûSWAPS ûACCORDINGûTOû4RADEWEB
h)TûCLEARLYûDERAILEDûTHEû3PANISHûCOMPLEXû
ACROSSûTHEûBOARDûxûSOûITûWASûAûBITûOFûAûDOWN
DAYûONûTHEûBACKûOFûTHATûNEWS vûSAIDûAûLEADû
MANAGER
h4HEûBROADERûMARKETûISûCLEARLYûALSOûTRICKY û
ASûWEûJUSTûSAWûANû2#)û"ANQUEûDEALûPULLEDûASû
WELLvû2#)ûHADûHOPEDûTOûSELLûAûSTERLINGûlVE
YEARûSENIOR
,EADSûCredit Suisse, Natixis, Santander and
UniCredit BEGANûMARKETINGûTHEû
YEARû
!An!! ûATûGUIDANCEûOFûBPûOVERûSWAPSû
AREAû4HEûSPREADûWASûEVENTUALLYûlXEDûATû
BP ûWITHûBOOKSûEXCEEDINGûõBN
h4HEûFACTûTHATû3ANTANDERûGOTûTHISûDEALû
DONE ûTIGHTENEDûPRICING ûPRINTEDûõBNûANDû
GOTûANûOVERSUBSCRIBEDûBOOKûISûAûCREDITûTOûTHEû
NAMEûANDûTHEûFACTûTHEYûHAVENTûBEENûINûTHEû
MARKETûFORûAûLONGûTIME vûSAIDûTHEûLEAD
h/NûAûDAYûLIKEûTODAY ûIFûITûWASûANYûOTHERû
3PANISHûBANKû)MûPRETTYûSUREûITûWOULDûHAVEû
BEENûPULLED ûBUTûASûITSûAûNATIONALûCHAMPIONû
ANDûAûSTRONGûNAME ûTHEYûWEREûSTILLûABLEûTOû
HOLDûTHEûBOOKûTOGETHERv
4HEûDEALûPRICEDûAROUNDûBPûINSIDEûTHEû
SOVEREIGN ûANûACHIEVEMENTûGIVENûTHEûTOUGHû
MARKETûCONDITIONSû"UTûSOMEûHADûEXPECTEDû
THEûBOOKûTOûBEûLARGERûGIVENûTHEûSCARCITYûOFû
3ANTANDERûSUPPLYûANDû3PANISHûCOVEREDûBONDû
ISSUANCEûOVERALL
)TûISûONLYûTHEûlFTHûEUROûBENCHMARKû

COVEREDûISSUEDûOUTûOFû3PAINûINûTHEûYEARûTO
DATEûASûBANKSûHAVEûPRIORITISEDû4,!#
ELIGIBLEû
INSTRUMENTSû$EUTSCHEû"ANKû3!%ûBROUGHTû
THEûLASTûBENCHMARKû#EDULAS ûAûõBNû
YEAR û
ONû3EPTEMBERû

FAIR VALUE OBSCURED
"ANKERSûAWAYûFROMûTHEûDEALûADDEDûTHATû
DEMANDûMAYûHAVEûBEENûLIMITEDûDUEûTOûTHEû
hTRICKYvû
YEARûMATURITYûnûWITHûlVE
YEARSû
CURRENTLYûSEENûASûTHEûSWEET
SPOTûnûANDûAû
DIFlCULTûPRICEûDISCOVERYûPROCESS
3ANTANDERSûõBNûû*ANUARYûSûWEREû
ATûBPnBP ûMIDû4HEûISSUERSûCURVEûHOWEVERû
ISûRELATIVELYûILLIQUIDûGIVENûTHEûLACKûOFûRECENTû
SUPPLY ûCALLINGûINTOûQUESTIONûTHEûRELEVANCEû
OFûTHOSEûLEVELS
4EN
YEARûPAPERûFROMû#AIXA"ANKûANDû
"ANKINTERûSOLDûEARLIERûTHISûYEARûWASûSPOTTEDû
INûTHEûLOWûSû"ANKERSûSUGGESTEDû3ANTANDERû
SHOULDûPRICEûBPnBPûINSIDEûTHESEûNAMES û
IMPLYINGûFAIRûVALUEûINûTHEûMID
TO
HIGHûTEENSû
/NûTHATûBASIS ûONEûSAIDûTHEûSTARTINGûPOINTû
WASûTOOûTIGHTûGIVENûTHEûCHALLENGINGûMARKETû
CONDITIONS
h3ANTANDERûISûAûGREATûBANK ûBUTûNOWûISû
MAYBEûNOTûAûTIMEûWHENûYOUûCANûEXTRACTûTHEû
VALUEûOFûYOURûCREDITûINûAûPRIMARYûCOVEREDû
BONDûTRANSACTION vûHEûSAID
/THERS ûWHOûSAWûFAIRûVALUEûINûTHEûLOW
TO
MIDûTEENS ûSAIDûTHEûSTARTINGûPOINTûSEEMEDû
FAIRû)TALIANûBANKSûPAIDûASûMUCHûASûBPûTOû
RAISEûCOVEREDûDEBTûINû*ULY
h4HEYREûNOTHINGûLIKEûTHEû)TALIANS ûSOûTHEYû
SHOULDNTûBEûPAYINGûMOREûTHANûBP vûSAIDû
ANOTHERûBANKERûAWAYûFROMûTHEûDEAL
!NOTHERûBANKERûAWAYûSAIDûTHATûWITHOUTû
THEûBENElTûOFûHINDSIGHT ûHEûWOULDûNOTû
NECESSARILYûHAVEûRECOMMENDEDûTHATû
3ANTANDERûSTARTûWIDER
!NYûOTHERû3PANISHûISSUERSûTHATûMAYûHAVEû
BEENûLOOKINGûFORûOPPORTUNITIESûINûTHEû
COVEREDûBONDûMARKETûWOULDûNOWûDOûWELLûTOû
HOLDûOFFûANDûSEEûHOWûTHEûTAXûNEWSûDEVELOPS û
SAIDûSYNDICATEûBANKERS
h&ORûAûDEALûOUTûOFû3PAIN û)ûTHINKûPEOPLEû
WILLûTHINKûTWICEûAFTERûTHISûNEWS vûSAIDûONEû
h0EOPLEûWILLûNEEDûTOûTHINKûABOUTûWHATûTHISû

BONDS COVERED BONDS

ALL COVERED BONDS (ALL CURRENCIES)
BOOKRUNNERS: 1/1/2018 TO DATE
Managing No of Total Share
bank or group issues US$(m) (%)
1 HSBC 57 10,590.06 5.7
2 LBBW 63 10,537.20 5.7
3 Natixis 51 10,251.85 5.5
4 UniCredit 62 10,210.00 5.5
5 Commerzbank 59 9,666.01 5.2
6 Deutsche Bank 42 8,058.32 4.3
7 UBS 38 7,992.92 4.3
8 Credit Agricole 41 7,620.64 4.1
9 SG 38 7,265.33 3.9
10 Credit Suisse 35 6,997.73 3.8
Total 258 185,343.75
Source: Refinitiv SDC code: J15a
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