The Economist May 21st 2022 BriefingThefoodcrisis 21
dia’s subsequent stemshrivelling heat
may not have any direct connection. But
when the probability of extremes goes up
worldwide, so too does the probability of
multiple regions suffering from one sort of
extreme or another at the same time, or in
the same time frame.
And time frames matter. Although ma
ny commodities can be produced year
round, crops depend on the seasons. Miss
the window for certain crucial steps, such
as planting, fertilising or harvesting, and
much of a year’s work can be lost in a mat
ter of weeks.
This is the worry when it comes to Uk
raine's winter wheat. Sown last year, it will
be ready for harvest come June. Mr Solskiy
expects this year's harvest to be 2030%
smaller than expected. Roughly half the
winterwheat fields are in the partoccu
pied, partfoughtover southeast. Many
fields are scattered with explosives. Infra
structure has been destroyed. Water, pow
er and fuel are sure to be in short supply.
Yields in the fields which do get har
vested will be down by 10%, according to
the fao: fertiliser applications have been
missed; pests and diseases have run amok.
And as long as Odessa is blockaded, the
harvest will have no route to market. Nor
can it be stored away. The blockade means
that the country’s silos are still more than
half full with last year’s crop. Unless ex
ports through the Black Sea start again (see
Europe section) millions of tonnes could
simply rot.
Things rank and gross in nature
The crops now nodding their heads in Rus
sian fields should fare better. International
sanctions do not target food exports direct
ly, and though they make the trade more
difficult, ways through and around the
problems they create can be contrived.
Though exports have dropped by a few mil
lion tonnes, Russia has managed to sell
more grain since the war began than ex
perts expected, with Egypt, Iran, Syria and
Turkey the main buyers. When this sum
mer’s harvest is brought home most of it
will get to market. But that will not set right
the shortfall in Ukraine.
Nor is the rest of the world well placed
to make good the lack. China has warned
that last year’s floods mean its winter
wheat crop could be “the worst in history”.
Much of America’s grain belt is undergoing
a drought as bad as the one which it saw in
201213. Around 40% of the wheat growing
in America’s parched plains was recently
deemed in poor or very poor condition (15
20% is average). On May 12th the usdapre
dicted that the country’s production of
hard red winter wheat, the main kind
grown in the plains, would fall by 21% com
pared with 2021. Europe is getting too little
rain at a point in the season when wheat is
most vulnerable to dryness. A little late
rain may be enough to revive the crops. But
it seems certain that production will come
up alarmingly short this year.
There are still stocks in exporting coun
tries that could make up some of the differ
ence. Nick Schaefer, who works at a grain
elevator in Rugby, North Dakota, says he
sees 40 to 50 trucks a day dropping off
grain to be loaded onto trains heading
west. And he knows there’s more where
that came from. “It seems like whenever
they sold, [the price] keeps going higher. So
definitely, what they’ve got left in the bin,
they’re probably going to hold on, just to
see what happens.”
Normally the farmers would have an in
centive to run down stocks before the har
vest, when prices typically drop. But this
year that looks unlikely to hold. Futures
markets expect wheat and maize prices to
stay at today’s extortionate levels until
mid2023. Mr Solskiy says that it will be
when the harvest fails to change things
that the world will start to feel the true im
pact of the crisis.
“There is no room for any weather issue
in the northern hemisphere this season,”
says an executive at one of the world’s larg
est traders. While Ukraine’s output re
mains inaccessible, “every single tonne in
the market will be needed,” says Michael
Magdovitz of Rabobank, a Dutch lender.
That tight coupling of supply and demand
means that prices will be very volatile, too,
moving on the slightest bit of news; fur
ther shocks could send them much higher.
What of harvests after that of this year’s
winter wheat? In Ukraine and elsewhere a
smaller wheat crop is also planted in the
spring, along with other things. For Mr Na
zarenko this meant first uprooting the af
termath of war. With a number of employ
ees, friends and relatives he walked the
fields, removing spent shell cases and
some unexploded shells, marking unex
ploded mines, pulling a “Smerch” rocket
from the mud in which it was entombed
with a tractor. “It was scary, but we did not
have a choice,” he says.
In the end, he managed to sow most of
his fields, barring the one still taken up by
burntout Russian trucks. That puts him
ahead of many. Some lack seeds. Some
must plant at night to avoid air raids. Some
are planting potatoes for home consump
tion rather than grain for export. A recent
survey by Ukraine’s agriculture ministry
suggests 3050% of the country’s spring
wheat fields could end up not being plant
ed. Yields may also suffer. Fertiliser is not
yet scarce but some may well be repur
posed to make explosives; ammonium ni
trate serves well in both offices. Diesel is
twice the price it was before the war, and it
is hard to get hold of even if you can pay.
Pesticides look set to be scarce.
Grown by what it fed on
Russian farmers do not face the problems
of bombing, but they too will be short of in
puts. The country’s large farms, which spe
cialise in supplying global markets with
grain, require a lot of them. Last year Rus
sia imported $870mworth of pesticides
and $410mworth of seeds—mostly from
the eu. Elusive bank financing, payment
headaches and a lack of willing shippers
are making such purchases much more
difficult. Most big Western seed and chem
icals companies have pulled out of Russia,
or are in the process of doing so (Chinese
ones have stayed). Some may return after
the war ends, but some may stay away.
Fertiliser will not be in short supply for
the Russians. But it will be in most other
places. In 2021, 25 countries got more than
30% of their fertilisers from Russia. In Eu
rope energysecurity concerns are restrict
ing the use of natural gas to make nitrogen
based fertiliser, so the continent will need
to import more, adding extra demand to a
market where the naturalgas price has al
No data
Lower impact Higher impact
Nil
Most aected
A bigger battlefield
Net income eect of food-price changes, % of GDP
Dec 31st 221-May 13th 222
Source: Gro Intelligence