28 United States TheEconomistMay21st 2022
S
ambankman-frieddrivesa Toyota
Corolla and sleeps on a beanbag in a
flat he shares with ten roommates. It
might come as a surprise that the 30
yearold is a cryptoentrepreneur whose
exchange, ftx, was valued at $32bn in
January. Recently he has taken an in
terest in politics.
On May 17th nine Democrats vied to
contest a seat in Oregon’s sixth, a new
congressional district born from the
2020 census. And a $10.5m donation
from Mr BankmanFried to one of them,
Carrick Flynn, made it the costliest
House primary in this cycle to date.
Mr Flynn and his backer both live by
the principles of “effective altruism”,
which urges people to maximise the
amount of good they can do. Effective
altruists argue that money should be
spent where it goes furthest: forgo that
donation to the local soup kitchen when
the same amount could save hundreds of
children in Bangladeshi slums. To Mr
BankmanFried, adhering to the ideology
means earning a lot to give to effective
causes—he has pledged to donate 99% of
his lifetime earnings. To Mr Flynn, a
researcher with no previous political
ambitions who became infuriated with
Congress’s poor response to covid19, it
meansrunningforofficetobolsterplan
ningfordisasters.
Effectivealtruistshavelongheralded
themeasurablebenefitsofdeworming
medicationandmosquitonets.Politics,
however,ismoreofa gamble,withhazier
payoffsanda lowerprobabilityofsuc
cess.TheCentreforEffectiveAltruism,
whichchampions“empathywithevi
dence”,hasadvisedtheWorldBank,the
WorldHealthOrganisationandtheBrit
ishgovernment.ButinOregonthisweek
MrFlynnfailedtowintheDemocratic
nomination:Congressisnotaboutto
experienceaninjectionofaltruism.
Oregon’ssixthdistrict
Ineffective altruism
America’s most expensive House raceandtheideologythatmadeitso
Political gamble
United States, top five House primary districts
By total spending , May 16th 2022, $m
Source:OpenSecrets
20151050
Texas 28
California 20
California 11
Georgia 1
Oregon 6
shipped four full charter planesofthem.)
Can the boom continue? Ithas been
fantastic for air freighters: rateshadtre
bled by the start of the year, saysMrJones
Shah. Profits at big firms, such as Ger
many’s Lufthansa Cargo, have soared,even
as the airline industry in generalstruggles.
Orders for new cargo jets are floodinginto
Airbus and Boeing. But costs arealsogoing
up. The price of fuel has soared.Ground
staff are in short supply. Somefirmshave
not realised they need to raisepay,andare
flailing. “You cannot run a labourinten
sive operation with 50% staffturnover,”
says Mr Jones Shah.
To beat the crunch, a lot ofmoneyis
now being invested in technologytotryto
increase efficiency. Flexport’swarehouse
has clever scanners that use artificialintel
ligence to try to spot automaticallycrates
that have been loaded onto thewronglor
ries. The firm also tries to use itsdatatoof
fer clients more efficient waysto move
their stuff around, balancingairandsea
freight. In the short run, though,higher
costs mean higher prices forconsumers.
That risks bringing the boom toanabrupt
end—an O’Hare raising prospect.n
Pennsylvania
Keystone-cop
politics
L
ikea doctoratthebedside,a politician
must try to soothe voters’ worries. At an
event on the eve of the Republican Senate
primary election in Pennsylvania, Mehmet
Oz, a celebrity television doctor, took vot
ers’ blood pressure. They told him about
their concerns, from inflation to schools,
and their fondness for Donald Trump. But
as they filed out, many still seemed scepti
cal. Dr Oz had won the former president’s
endorsement, but not the love of his fans.
By May 18th, the day after the election,
Dr Oz appeared to have edged ahead of Da
vid McCormick. But with a margin of less
than 0.5 percentage points separating the
two, the race will probably head to a re
count that must be completed by June 7th.
The saga will weigh on Republicans,
who cannot afford to lose the state come
November. With an incumbent Republican
senator retiring, Pennsylvania is one of
Democrats’ few chances to flip a seat and
retain their thin majority in the upper
chamber. But in chasing votes and Mr
Trump’s coveted endorsement, Dr Oz and
Mr McCormick, a former hedgefund exec
utive, adopted nearly identical messages
and spent much of the campaign attacking
one another in television ads.
They had a scare from the insurgent
campaign of Kathy Barnette, a charismatic
AfricanAmerican farright commentator.
She rocketed into contention on the back
of her strenuous opposition to abortion
and background as the child of rape. Mr
Trump appeared alarmed to find his pre
ferred candidate outflanked, and labelled
Ms Barnette unelectable. “He’s not Jesus,
he can be wrong,” said Ms Barnette, refer
ring to Mr Trump, while tarring her oppo
nents as part of the “woke right”. In the
end, after being vastly outspent, she came
third with a quarter of the vote.
Republicans faced more discomfort in
the governor’s contest. The comfortable
victor, a state senator, Doug Mastriano, is
also among the more extreme flavours of
Republican. He joined the rally (as did Ms
Barnette) to overturn the election of Presi
dent Joe Biden at America’s Capitol on Jan
uary 6th 2021. He has vowed to appoint a
likeminded Pennsylvania secretary of
state to administer elections—one who
may resist certifying a future Democratic
presidential victory there.
The Republican candidates now face
two formidable Democratic opponents.
The state’s nononsense attorneygeneral,
Josh Shapiro, won the uncontested nomi
nation for governor. The Democrats’ Sen
ate nominee, John Fetterman, the hulking,
goateed state lieutenantgovernor, won by
a landslide. Mr Fetterman spent the cam
paign disavowing his lefty reputation and
would appear wellpositioned closer to the
centre. But he suffered a stroke five days
before the primary, requiring surgery and
raising questions about his fitness for the
rough and tumble of a campaign.
If Democrats have managed to unite be
hind credible candidates, Republicans are
increasingly panicked that they may
squander two prime chances in Pennsylva
nia. Even Mr Trump appears less in control
of a Republican electorate that continues
to pay him homage. He endorsed Mr Mas
triano with just four days to go before the
primary, when he was already well ahead
in the polls. If Dr Oz prevails, Mr Trump
will no doubt claim further vindication,
however shaky. Nearly every Republican
candidate mimicked the former presi
dent’s positions and rhetoric. But the expe
rience suggests that, thoughthe party has
been recast in Mr Trump’simage, taming
the voters is more elusive.n
H ERSHEY, PENNSYLVANIA
Republicans may be fumbling a key
step in their path to a Senate majority