Hostages to fortune
Trump’s sanctions on Iran are unlikely to succeed
JOHN R. BRADLEY
est monitoring programme ever imposed.
The endgame for Trump, though, is
regime change. It’s a strategy based not on
military intervention — the US would never
dare to attack Iran — but on the hope that
oppressed Iranians will rise up against the
mullahs as they face the indignity of star-
vation without meaningful representation.
The history of sanctions on regimes suggests
a different outcome, because they provoke
nationalist outrage among the population
directed not so much at the ruling elite
inside the country as at those who in a dis-
tant land so cruelly impose them.Trump’s Middle East policy — anchored
on supposed ally Saudi Arabia getting into
bed with Israel to contain their common
erratic foe Iran — isn’t gaining much trac-
tion at home either.
Even before the Saudis finally admitted
that the Washington Post columnist Jamal
Khashoggi had died in a ‘fistfight’ in its
Istanbul consulate, a poll revealed that only
4 per cent of Americans considered Saudi
Arabia an ally. (Given the margin of error
and the widespread revulsion caused by
news of Khashoggi’s killing, there could now
be literally no one in the US who holds such
a positive view.) An Economist-YouGov sur-S
unday, 4 November, marks the 39th
anniversary of the storming of the
US embassy in Tehran by Ayatollah
Khomeini’s militant student thugs, begin-
ning a 444-day hostage crisis that proba-
bly cost Jimmy Carter a second presiden-
tial term and took a toll on the collective
American psyche since equalled only by the
September 11 attacks on the Twin Towers
and the Pentagon.
Coincidentally, it’s also the day America
ratchets up already devastating economic
sanctions against Iran, following Washing-
ton’s unilateral withdrawal in May from the
nuclear treaty brokered by Barack Obama.
No doubt Donald Trump will exploit the
propitious timing to highlight how, four
decades on, Iran remains, in his view,
entrenched in its hostility to US interests in
the Middle East.
How ironic, then, that casting Iran as a
uniquely rogue state just got a lot more diffi-
cult for President Trump because of another
notoriously undiplomatic act inside a diplo-
matic mission — this one by a 15-man Saudi
hit squad on a murderous mission to silence
a dissenter in neighbouring Turkey.
Officially, Trump is imposing sanctions
on the heart of Iran’s economy because of
the country’s alleged nuclear treaty viola-
tions and its failure to curb its ballistic mis-
sile programme. This is despite the fact that
the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the European
Union, Britain, Russia and China all remain
convinced that Iran is abiding by the strict-Th e Iranian s h ave rea son to be el at ed
at how the Saudis need no help in
digging themselves into a deeper holeOn the wagonA ‘caravan’ of several thousand Central
American migrants was reported to be
travelling through Mexico towards the
southern US border. The concept of a
caravan comes from karwan, a Persian
word for a group of merchants who would
travel together to take advantage of safety
in numbers. In its turn it is believed to have
derived from the Sanskrit word for camel.
It is first recorded in English in the late
17th century for a large number of people
travelling together, and soon afterwards
became a word for a covered wagon —
predating the motor car by two centuries.
A wing and a prayerThe owner of Leicester City football club,
Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha, died along with
four others when his helicopter crashed
shortly after taking off from the ground
after a Premiership match. Meanwhile, a
Boeing 737 crashed in Indonesia, killing
all on board. How safe are helicopters
compared with fixed-wing aircraft?
Accidents per 100,000 flight hours
Commercial helicopter 2.28
Commercial fixed wing 2.97
Non-commercial helicopter 5.29
Non-commercial fixed wing 6.30
Source: International Helicopter Safety Team
Social media bluesPhilip Hammond announced that every
school is to have a dedicated mental health
team, following fears that social media is
causing an increase in depression and other
psychiatric symptoms. Does using social
media affect children’s mental health?
Percentage reporting ‘high or very
high’ total difficulties scores —
a questionnaire-based measure used to
identify children at risk of mental illness.
(A high score indicates elevated risk.)
Do not use social media 12.5%
Up to three hours a day 12.2%
More than three hours a day 26.3%
Source: UK Household Longitudinal Study
Not coining itThe Chancellor revealed there will be
a commemorative 50p coin to mark
Brexit next year. How much are previous
commemorative 50p pieces now worth as
collectors’ items (depending on condition)?
Peter Rabbit (2016) (^50) P-£3.50
Battle of Hastings (2016) (^50) P-£4
25th anniversary of Britain’s
EU membership (1998) £1-£10
Sir Isaac Newton (2017) £1.50-£10
Entry into Common Market
(1973) £2-£4
D Day Landings (1994) £3-£3.60
Kew Gardens (2009) £65-£230
BAROMETER