Bloomberg Businessweek - USA (2019-10-07)

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BLOOMBERG

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offense, he’s also taken a few careful steps to insu-

late his caucus against a possible reversal. “If this

is the ‘launching point’ for House Democrats’

impeachment process,” he said in a statement to

Politico, “they’ve already overplayed their hand.”

But he also told CNBC he’d have “no choice” under

Senaterulesbuttotakeupimpeachmentarticles

andstoppedshortofblessingTrump’sconduct.In

recentweekshe’sordereda bipartisanSenateintel-

ligenceinvestigation,backeda resolutionwrittenby

SenateMinorityLeaderChuckSchumerdemanding

thattheadministrationturnoverthethen-secret

whistleblowerreport,andannouncedhe’dbeen

privatelypushingtheadministrationtoreleaseaid

toUkrainethathadbeenheldupbeforeTrump’s

phonecallwiththatcountry’spresident.

WhilenoSenateRepublicanhasyetsaidTrump

shouldbeimpeachedoverUkraine,whatthey

havesaidsuggestshemightnothavea solidwall

behindhimif damaginginformationcontinuesto

comeout.Trump’ssometimerivalMittRomney

ofUtahhascalledthepresident’sactions“trou-

blingintheextreme.”Nebraska’sBenSasse,who

criticizedTrumpasa candidatebuthasfallenin

linesince,saidhiscolleaguesshouldn’trushto

“circlethewagons”aroundthepresident.And

SenateIntelligenceChairmanRichardBurrof

NorthCarolinahasvowedto“gettothebottom”

ofwhathappened.

Itwouldlikelytakea collapseinsupportfor

TrumpamongRepublicanvoterstochangeGOP

senators’calculus.Whilepollsshowincreasing

approvalamongthepublicforimpeachment,it’s

comemostlyfromDemocrats.Thepresident’s

approvalratingamongGOPvotersremainsabove

80%inpublicpolls,makinganyRepublicansena-

tor’sdefectiona potentiallycareer-endingdecision.

Theadministrationis countingonRepublicans

to toe the party line. Before it released a rough tran-

script of Trump’s call with the president of Ukraine,

the White House summoned a group of Republican

lawmakers for a strategy briefing. Anyone who

might have been considering breaking ranks

wouldn’t have had to look further than former

SenatorsJeffFlakeofArizonaandBobCorkerof

Tennesseetoseetheconsequences:Bothdecided

toretirelastyearratherthanrunforreelection

aftertheirdust-upswithTrumpsenttheirpoll

numbersplummeting.

Havingtocasta voteinanimpeachmenttrial

wouldputsomeswing-stateRepublicans,such

asPatToomeyofPennsylvaniaandRobPortman

ofOhio,onthespot.ToomeyandPortmanhave

soughttosplitthedifference,criticizingthepres-

identbutsuggestinghisactionsdon’twarrant

removalfromoffice.GOPSenatorsCoryGardner

(Colorado),MarthaMcSally(Arizona),JoniErnst

(Iowa),andThomTillis(NorthCarolina),allupfor

reelectioninbattlegroundstates,haveaccusedthe

Houseofoverreaching.

Others,includingSusanCollinsofMaine,have

startedtellingreportersthey don’twanttocom-

mentontheimpeachmentquestionbecausethey

mightendupservingasdefactojurors,a linethat

convenientlykeepsthemoutofthedailypolitical

fray.Collinshasyettosaywhethershe’srunning

nextyear,butshecouldfacethetoughestfightof

hercareerif shedid,havingtocourtvotersina

statethatwentforHillaryClintonin2016.Many

DemocratswhohavevotedforCollinsinthepast

areangryoverhersupportforTrump’sagendaand

hervotetoconfirmSupremeCourtJusticeBrett

Kavanaugh,causingherapprovalratingstotumble.

Bycontrast,animpeachmentfightcouldben-

efitMcConnell—whois himselfrunningforreelec-

tionnextyear—giventhatTrumpwonhisstate,

 POLITICS Bloomberg Businessweek October 7, 2019

○ MITCH McCONNELL

Kentucky

The Senate majority

leader is up for

reelection in a state that

loves Trump.

○ MITT ROMNEY

Utah

One of Trump’s frequent

critics within the party,

Romney also has a

major national platform.

○ MARTHA McSALLY

Arizona

Appointed to fill John

McCain’s seat, McSally

faces voters next year in

a state she lost in 2018.

○ BEN SASSE

Nebraska

Sasse, who has tried

to position himself as

Congress’s moral voice,

said the party shouldn’t

rush to defend Trump.

○ CORY GARDNER

Colorado

He’s one of the most

vulnerable Republicans

running for reelection

in 2020, in a state Hillary

Clinton won easily.

○ SUSAN COLLINS

Maine

Seen as a crucial swing

vote, Collins is vulnerable

on both the left and the

right in her state.

Six Republicans Trump Should Keep Close

His fate could hinge on these senators

○ Republican senators

who voted against

Trump’s emergency

border directive

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