Innovations in Dryland Agriculture

214

2 Risk Associated in Livestock Production in Drylands

Producing livestock in drylands has been described as “living off uncertainty”
(Kratli and Schareika 2010 ) because producers are confronted by multiple risks and
uncertainties. Before exploring this topic, we first turn to Hardaker et al. ( 2015 ) to
distinguish between ‘risk’, when the probabilities of the possible outcomes are
known, and ‘uncertainty’, when the probabilities are not known. However, for prac-
tical purposes, it may be more useful to define uncertainty as “imperfect knowl-
edge” and risk as “uncertain and unfavourable consequences”. Therefore, the degree
of aversion for some of the possible consequences determines the risk profile for a
particular production system (Hardaker et al. 2015 ). For example, a producer might
say that he or she is uncertain about the weather in the next few months, which is a
value-free statement simply implying imperfect knowledge of the future. However,
whether the producer plans to modify his or her flock size is a reflection of their
appetite for risk in the face of uncertainty. The concept of uncertainty has to be kept
in mind when thinking about animal production systems in dryland areas. While
uncertainty cannot be managed, producers do have opportunities for implementing
strategies, such as feed supplementation and/or the provision of shelter that can
decrease the probability of aversive consequences of uncertain climatic and socio-
economic events (risks).
In dryland environments, especially in the context of developing countries and
sustainable agriculture, livestock production can be extensive or part of a more
intensive mixed farming system based on production of both crops and livestock.
Both types of production systems are exposed to the same uncertainties in dryland
areas, but the degree of risk (e.g., in profitability or in natural resource management)
could be quite different.

Table 1 (continued)

Source of risk

Management strategy

Nonea Feeda Waterb

Heat

stressc

Stocking

densityd

Integrated
(shrubs +
behaviour)
People (producers)
Adoption Serious Medium Low Serious Serious Serious
Skilled labour High Serious High Serious Serious Medium
Risk aversion Serious Medium Low Serious Serious Serious
Financial
Borrowing power Serious Serious Serious Serious Serious Medium
Investment Serious Serious Serious Serious Serious Medium
Capital debt Serious Serious Serious Serious Serious Medium
Profit margin High Medium Serious Medium Medium Medium
aImproving feedbase
bImproving access to water
cReducing heat stress
dAdjusting stocking density

D. Blache et al.