Aviation Week & Space Technology - January 15, 2015

44 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JANUARY 15-FEBRUARY 1, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst

Bill Sweetman Washington

Balancing Act

Brazil weighs autonomy and af ordability

JAS 39F and leads Brazilian industry

participation in the manufacture of

all Gripens. Embraer will build later

Gripens for Brazil and other custom-

ers—likely including, but not limited to,

Latin America—and it is also probable

that Embraer will play a major role in

developing a carrier-based Gripen.

The Gripen is a major focus of busi-

ness and technology for other Brazilian

companies, such as Odebrecht—a $43

billion conglomerate that has diversi-

fi ed into defense, including the acqui-

sition of radar and missile developer

Mectron—and Elbit subsidiary AEL

Sistemas. The Brazilian aircraft are ex-

pected to feature a panoramic-display

cockpit using AEL hardware, and will

be armed with the Odebrecht Defense

& Technology MAR-1 anti-radar missile

and the Denel/Odebrecht A-Darter air-

to-air missile.

The fi rst-batch deliveries continue

until 2024, controlling expenditure

and mitigating risk. All the compa-

nies involved, along with the air force,

have gained experience with avion-

ics and weapon integration through

three deep upgrade programs—the

air force’s F-5EM/FM and Embraer-

Alenia A-1M, and the Navy’s AF-1M

Skyhawk—which use a mix of Elbit

and Odebrecht avionics and weapons.

(The A-1M has Brazil’s fi rst indigenous

fighter radar.) As a further hedge

against military risks, the air force has

acquired 11 more F-5E/Fs from Jordan.

Naval modernization programs are

taking a similar approach to schedule

and indigenous capability. Three proj-

ects are underway: Prosub (subma-

rines), Prosuper (surface combatants)

and Pronae (aircraft carrier capability).

Under Pronae, Brazil plans to operate

1950s hardware, including the carrier

Sao Paulo—formerly France’s Foch—

AF-1Ms and KC-2s (modernized Grum-

DEFENSE EXPORT TRENDS

cials suggest all they can do is try to

help industry understand what is pos-

sible. Kevin Wolf, assistant secretary of

commerce for export administration,

told Aviation Week how the number of

people the Commerce Department has

trained in the new rules has doubled

each year from fi scal 2011 to 2013. It

should show continued growth for 2014

once final data is available, as Com-

merce of cials have hosted scores of

opportunities like webinars.

But at some point, all of cials can do

is reach out. “I often refer to the fi ve

stages of export-control acceptance

where it starts of as denial—‘this won’t

actually happen’—and then to curiosity,

then to panic, and then intense focus,

and then acceptance,” Wolf said.

“There are some companies that

waited, thinking that it was never go-

B

razil faces a complex and unique

set of defense, security and eco-

nomic challenges and opportuni-

ties, including a 10,500-mi. , ten-nation

land border and a large exclusive eco-

nomic zone (plus interests in the South

Atlantic). It has a powerful aerospace

and defense industry, but also some ma-

jor internal development needs, and its

diplomacy is oriented toward regional

and even hemispheric infl uence.

The nation’s defense trade is con-

sequently complex. A 2014 study pub-

lished by the U.S. National Defense Uni-

versity refers to Brazil’s “trilemma” —a

problem for which the solution can be

optimized for any two of three desired

outcomes. In the defense world, those

outcomes are autonomy and national

development; af ordability; and military

capability. For example, direct impor-

tation is often the least costly way to

acquire hardware. Alternatively, tech-

nology and systems can be developed

indigenously within a fi xed budget, but

that is a long process that may involve

accepting and mitigating military risk.

Brazil’s major defense programs

strike a balance among the three points

of the trilemma, but the balance point

dif ers from one project to another. This

strategy will be tested over the next ten

years and beyond, because a number of

ambitious long-term programs are now

reaching the big-money stage.

Some defense projects sit at oppo-

site extremes of the autonomy-versus-

import spectrum. Brazil’s P-3AM Orion

maritime patrol aircraft were modifi ed

in Spain by Airbus Defense after being

acquired from the U.S. Navy. (Retired

long ago as P-3As, they had fl own fewer

hours than the U.S. Navy’s own P-3Cs.)

Likewise, Brazil’s most advanced un-

manned air vehicle is the Elbit Hermes

900, acquired of -the-shelf with indus-

trial participation via AEL Sistemas.

In contrast, the Embraer KC-

390 tanker-transport is one of two

modern-technology single-nation

airlifter programs, the other being

Japan’s C-2. The dif erences between

these programs are that the KC-390

matches Embraer’s proven ability

to build transport aircraft and has a

large potential domestic, regional and

worldwide market, while the UAV and

maritime aircraft are small-number

systems in markets already dominated

by powerful incumbents.

Other programs are being pursued

through partnerships, the largest in-

volving the Saab JAS 39E/F Gripen.

The 36 aircraft ordered so far make

up the fi rst of three tranches that will

replace all the air force’s current tac-

tical jets by the early 2030s. The fi rst

21 aircraft will be built in Sweden and

the remainder in Brazil, while Embraer

leads development of the two-seat

Importing and upgrading 11 F-5s

from Jordan allowed Brazil to

stretch out its Gripen acquisition

to reduce risk.

BRAZILIAN AIR FORCE