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flightglobal.com 17-23 February 2015 | Flight International | 29
Big changes
for the
Big Country
AUSTRALIA P32EXPORTS BETH STEVENSON LONDON STEPHEN TRIMBLE WASHINGTON, DC
Can Predator prosper outside NATO?
US government backs Dutch and French MQ-9 requests, but barriers stand in way of potential sales to India and Jordan
W
ith requested purchases of
General Atomics Aeronauti-
cal Systems Predator/Reaper-se-
ries unmanned air vehicles by
France and the Netherlands made
in recent weeks, the USA’s backing
of an export license for India but a
rejection for Jordan have raised
questions over how much poten-
tial the UAVs really have outside
of NATO.
Later this year, General Atomics
is expected to take an MQ-9 Reap-
er out of storage and deliver it to
the French air force, Flightglobal
understands. On 5 February, the
US Air Force announced a plan to
award the company $3.8 million
to return the aircraft to flying sta-
tus and modify it into the un-
armed French configuration. Paris
ordered an initial two MQ-9s in
June 2013, with a follow-on deal
for 16 more announced two
months later.
The US Defense Security Coop-
eration Agency (DSCA) said on 6
February that the Netherlands has
requested a Foreign Military Sales
deal for four MQ-9 Block 5 sys-
tems and associated equipment,
worth $339 million. Still requiring
Congressional approval, a sale to
the NATO nation has been in the
pipeline for some time. “It is vital
to assist the Netherlands to devel-
op and maintain a strong and
ready self-defence capability,” the
DSCA says.
INTEROPERABILITY
An MQ-9 NATO users group was
established during the Alliance
summit in Newport, Wales last
September. Officials from France,
Italy, the UK and USA are be-
lieved to have met in January to
discuss the group’s terms, in a bid
to enhance interoperability.
But where such NATO custom
will take General Atomics is large-
ly speculative. As it attempts to
break beyond this market and into
other promising areas, the US gov-
ernment and restrictions on UAV
sales present a barrier to the com-
pany.
While it has invested in an ex-
port-specific Predator XP variant- effectively an unarmed, surveil-
lance-only version of the MQ-1
that has become synonymous
with unmanned air strikes in the
USA’s areas of operation – only the
United Arab Emirates to date has
been permitted to purchase the
aircraft.
When US President Barack
Obama visited India in January, a
request for a Predator XP purchase
was expected, with New Delhi
seeking an array of unmanned
technologies.
General Atomics confirms that
the US government has granted it
a DSP-5 export license, enabling it
“to engage in discussions with the
government of India, as well as
local industry, for the potential
sale of Predator XP”.
Jordan, meanwhile, is seeming-
ly focusing all of its military power
on the fight against Islamic State
militants, following the killing of a
captured air force pilot. General
Atomics is understood to have re-
quested export licence applica-
tions earlier in 2014 for a possible
sale to Amman, but the US state
department rejected this. “We
defer to the two governments for
comment on this issue,” says the
firm, which is “ready to support
whichever decision is made”.
The international Missile Tech-
nology Control Regime’s restric-
tions are likely to play a part in the
US government’s decision to veto
certain aircraft sales. Washington
would not be allowed to sell mili-
tary technology to a nation if it
could end up in the hands of an
insurgent group, for example.Sales to Jordan and India would
also rock the boat between the
USA and Israel. Jordanian sales
would politically upset Israel,
while India is a significant market
for Israel’s UAV industry, and one
that it would be hesitant to lose.
As the export market sharpens
focus, the outlook on the US mili-
tary side appears bleak. General
Atomics has delivered all 164
MQ-1s that the USAF requires,
while the US Army plans to order
a final batch of 17 MQ-1C Gray Ea-
gles in the next fiscal year, com-
pleting a need for 158 aircraft.
Even demand for the MQ-9 Reaper
is nearly exhausted. On 4 Febru-
ary, the USAF announced award-ing a $279 million contract to the
type’s manufacturer to deliver 24
MQ-9 Block 5 aircraft and related
equipment. That leaves only 77
aircraft remaining in the USAF’s
plan to acquire 361 Reapers, with
a final order expected in fiscal year
2019.
There may be additional de-
mand in the US intelligence com-
munity’s classified budgets, how-
ever. Last April, a senior company
official told Flightglobal that it is
delivering one Avenger – a jet-
powered, armed UAV with radar
stealth characteristics – every nine
months to a classified customer,
and that there could be additional
Reapers in the pipeline as well.
But the unclassified budget has
formed the backbone of General
Atomics’ order backlog since the
late-1990s, and it is going away
with no known requirement in the
acquisition pipeline to replace the
inventory. At the same time, the
US Navy is deferring by three
years to 2023 a plan to field an un-
manned carrier-launched surveil-
lance and strike aircraft, for which
the Avenger is competing against
rival bids from Boeing, Lockheed
Martin and Northrop Grumman. ■General Atomics Aeronautical Systems
Full approval to sell the unarmed XP has so far only been secured for the United Arab Emirates“It is vital to assist
the Netherlands to
develop and maintain
a strong and ready
self-defense”
DSCARead more news from the
unmanned air system sector:
flightglobal.com/UAV