The Economist - UK (2022-05-28)

TheEconomistMay28th 2022 Europe 29

Western partners as much as, and probably
more  than,  they’re  negotiating  with  the
Russians,” says Olga Oliker of the Interna­
tional Crisis Group, a think­tank. The fuzz­
iness also reflects the uncertainties of war.
Is  Ukraine  winning,  because  it  saved  Kyiv
and pushed Russia back from Kharkiv; or is
it losing, because Russia has taken Mariu­
pol and may soon encircle Severodonetsk?
The peace party worries that the longer the
fighting  goes  on,  the  greater  the  human
and economic cost to Ukraine and the rest
of the world. The justice camp retorts that
sanctions  on  Russia  are  just  starting  to
bite;  with  more  time  and  more  and  better
weapons Ukraine can win. 
Behind  all  this  lie  two  contradictory
worries. One is that Russian forces are still
strong  and  will  prevail  in  a  grinding  war.
The other is that they are brittle. If routed,
Russia could lash out at nato, or resort to
chemical or even nuclear weapons to avoid
defeat.  In  the  long  term,  says  Emmanuel
Macron, the French president, Europe will
need to find a way of living with Russia. Es­
tonia’s prime minister, Kaja Kallas, retorts,
“It  is  much  more  dangerous  giving  in  to
Putin than provoking him.” American and
European officials have quietly been help­
ing Ukraine develop negotiating positions.
One point is its demand for security guar­
antees from the West. Short of a promise to
defend Ukraine directly, ideas include the
ability  to  “snap  back”  any  sanctions  on
Russia  that  are  lifted;  and  rearming  Uk­
raine quickly if it is attacked again.
Right  now,  Ukraine  is  reasonably  opti­
mistic.  It  has  denied  Russia  an  easy  con­
quest,  and  new  Western  weapons  are  ap­
pearing  on  the  front  lines.  But  speaking
from  the  sandbagged  presidential  head­
quarters,  Mykhailo  Podolyak,  Mr  Zelen­
sky’s  chief  negotiator,  says  he  is  increas­
ingly  concerned  by  the  “fatigue”  in  some
European countries. “They don’t say it di­
rectly,  but  it  feels  like  an  attempt  to  force
us to capitulate. Any ceasefire means a fro­

zenconflict.”Healsocomplainedof“iner­

tia”inWashington:weaponsarenotarriv­

inginthequantitiesUkraineneeds.

Whenthewarendswilldependinlarge

partonRussia.Itisinnohurryfora cease­

fire.Itseemsdeterminedtoconquerallof

theDonbasintheeast,andtalksoftaking

morelandinthewest.“Theparadoxofthe

situation is thatboth sidesstill believe

theycanwin,”saysVolodymyrFesenko,a

politicalanalystinKyiv.“Onlyifwereally

reachastalemate,andMoscowandKyiv

recogniseitassuch,cananytalkofcom­

promisebepossible.Eventhen,itislikely

tobetemporary.”n

Melitopol Mariupol

Mykolaiv

Kherson

Odessa

Dnipro

Kramatorsk

Zaporizhia

Kharkiv

Izyum

Slovyansk

Kyiv

Black

Sea

Seaof

Azov

Dnieper

UKRAINE

ROMANIA

MOLDOVA

RUSSIA

Crimea

Ukrainian territory annexed

by Russia in 201

Luhansk

Donetsk

Area controlled by

Russian-backed

separatists before

Feb 2th

Transnistria

Do

nba

s

Severodonetsk

150 km

ClaimedasRussian-

controlled

AssessedRussian

advances*

AssessedasRussian-

controlled

Claimed Ukrainian

counter-attacks

May 25th 222

*Russia operated in or attacked,

but does not control

Sources: Institute for the Study

of War; AEI’s Critical Threats

Project; Rochan Consulting

RefugeesinPoland

The tide turns

V

aleria, a fashion consultant, and her

mother,  a  housewife,  escaped  to  Po­

land  in  early  March,  a  week  after  Russian

missiles began falling on Kyiv, their home

town. Three months later they are return­

ing. “It’s hard to live a normal life when all

you think of is your country,” Valeria says,

standing  alongside  a  bundle  of  bags,  and

hundreds  of  other  Ukrainians,  at  a  train

station in Warsaw, the Polish capital.

With  Russian  troops  forced  to  retreat

from  the  outskirts  of  Kyiv  and  Kharkiv,

Ukraine’s two biggest cities, many refugees

reckon  it  is  safe,  or  at  least  safer  than  be­

fore, to come back. In the two weeks to May

23rd,  the  number  of  Ukrainians  heading

back home from Poland (345,000) exceed­

ed  the  number  of  those  entering  Poland

(253,000). Neighbouring countries are see­

ing a similar trend. Many of those return­

ing say they simply want to see loved ones.

Men of fighting age have not been allowed

to leave Ukraine. As a result, 94% of the ref­

ugees  in  Poland  are  women  and  children.

“I’m a bit scared,” Valeria says, “but I need

to see my dad and my grandma.” 

Poland has taken in 3.5m refugees from

Ukraine  since  the  start  of  the  war,  more

than  all  other  eu countries  combined.

Hundreds of thousands of the newcomers

have  moved  farther  west  or  returned

home,  but  Poland’s  resources  are  still

stretched  to  the  limit.  Large  cities  and

towns  near  the  border,  where  most  of  the

Ukrainian refugees have settled, are burst­

ing  at  the  seams.  A  plan  drawn  up  a  few

years ago by municipal officials in Warsaw

had  predicted  that  the  city’s  population

would grow by up to 250,000 by the end of

this  decade.  It  expanded  by  as  much  after

three weeks of war in Ukraine. 

As  many  as  600,000  Ukrainians  are

staying  with  Polish  families.  The  rest  live

with  friends  or  relatives,  in  dormitories,

hotels and resorts or on their own. But pro­

blems are surfacing. In urban areas the in­

flux  has  compounded  a  housing  shortage

and driven up prices. Rents in Warsaw are

up  by  an  average  of  more  than  40%  com­

pared with a year ago, over three times the

current  rate  of  inflation.  The  supply  of

rental properties has plunged. Apartments

listed one day are snapped up the next. 

Municipal  officials  are  desperately

looking  for  new  housing.  Office  buildings

have  been  converted  into  temporary  refu­

gee  shelters.  Last  month  the  city  seized  a

hulking  apartment  block,  which  once

housed  employees  of  the  Soviet  embassy,

from Russia. Warsaw’s mayor says he plans

to  use  the  compound—popularly  known,

in  honour  of  its  former  occupants,  as

Szpiegowo,  or  Spyville—to  accommodate

displaced Ukrainians.  

The  housing  problem  may  worsen  in

the  coming  months.  Polish  host  families

and their Ukrainian guests may soon tire of

sharing  the  same  bathroom  and  washing

machine.  Once  resorts  or  youth  camps

reopen  for  the  summer­holiday  season,

the  hundreds  of  thousands  of  Ukrainians

living  in  them  may  have  to  look  for  other

places to stay. With housing scarce and ex­

pensive, they risk finding none.

Jobs  are  not  a  big  problem.  Poland’s

economy grew by 8.5% in the first quarter

of  this  year,  compared  with  a  year  earlier.

Unemployment  is  at  3%,  the  third  lowest

in the eu. At least 145,000 Ukrainians, and

perhaps as many as 200,000, have already

found work. “If you want a job, you can find

one,”  says  Ludmila,  feeding  ducks  at  a

pond  overlooking  the  derelict  Szpiegowo

compound;  she  now  works  at  the  hostel

where she stayed after arriving in Warsaw.

Yet  language  barriers  and  bureaucratic

obstacles to getting skills and diplomas re­

cognised  mean  that  refugees  who  held

WARSAW

As Russia’s invasion stalls, Ukraine’s

refugees start to return home