74 Science & technology TheEconomistMay28th 2022
S
incebritainreporteda caseofmon
keypoxonMay7th,morethan 300
furtherinstanceshavebeennotedacross
theworld.Thedisease,whichisusually
confinedtoAfrica,isnowpresentinat
least 17 countriesinEuropeandfive
othernonAfricanones(seemap).
Thesymptoms(fever,exhaustionand
pustuleswhichspreadacrosstheface
andbody)aresimilartothoseofsmall
pox,a diseasethatonceplaguedhuman
itybuthasnowbeenexterminated.Some
researcherssuggestthat,byending
routineantismallpoxvaccination,this
exterminationmayhaveopenedthedoor
formonkeypoxtospread.
TheWorldHealthOrganisation(who)
saystheillnessrarelykillshealthyadults
if treatedearly,butcanbedangerousfor
children,pregnantwomenandtheim
munocompromised.Thosecaveatsare
important.Thereisnorecordedcaseof
anyoneoutsideAfricahavingdiedof
monkeypox.Butinthatcontinent,where
healthcareisoftenpoor,it isfatal36%
ofthetime.Also,a strainprevalentin
Congoismuchmorelikelytokillthan
thewestAfricanvariantnowspreading
outsidethecontinent.
PreviousEuropeanoutbreakshave
beenlimitedtotravellersfromAfrica,or
theirclosecontacts.Thefirstcasefound
inBritainthismonthinvolvedsomeone
recentlyarrivedfromNigeria.Since
then,thediseasehasspreadmorewidely.
ByMay25thBritainhaddiagnosed 71
cases.Spainhadreported119.Portugal,
39.Argentina,AustriaandDenmark
confirmedinfectionsonMay23rd.
Monkeypoxismostfrequentlytrans
mittedbyskintoskincontact,bodily
fluidsorcontaminatedmaterialsuchas
clothesandbedding.Manyoftherecent
Europeaninfectionshavebeenlinkedto
bigevents,includinga gayprideparade
inSpainanda fetishfestivalinBelgium.
HansKluge,thewho’s regionaldirector
forEurope,haswarnedthat“transmis
sioncouldaccelerate”duringthesum
mermonths,fuelledbyfestivalsand
parties.Herecommendsthoroughhand
washingandprotectiveequipmentfor
healthworkers.Infectedpeopleandtheir
contactshavebeenadvisedtoisolatefor
21 daysandhealthauthoritiesareusing
contacttracingtominimisethespread.
Butthevirusisnotasrapidlytrans
missibleassarscov2.Nordoesit mu
tateasquicklyascoronavirusesare
pronetodo,reducingtheriskofit sud
denlybecomingmoredangerous.And
Westerncountriesknowhowtodeal
withit.Thelastbigoutbreakoutside
Africawasin2003,whenmonkeypox
carryingprairiedogscausedmorethan
70 casesinAmerica.Thatincidentwas
quicklycontained.
Vaccinationcanhelppeoplerecover
evenaftertheyhavebeeninfected,and
smallpoxjabs(ofwhichmanycountries
retainlargestocks)areestimatedtobe
85%effectiveagainstmonkeypox.Some
placesarealready“ringvaccinating”the
personalcontactsofthoseinfected,both
toprotecttheindividualsinquestion
andtobreakthechainofinfection.So,
althoughthenumberofcaseswillprob
ablycontinuetorisefora while,mon
keypoxismostunlikelytoleadtolock
downsinthewaythatcovid19did.
Anewoutbreakofdisease
Thespread of monkeypox
It isnotcovidmk2.Butitneedstobenippedinthebud
Cause for concern?
Monkeypox cases in non-endemic countries*, May 7th-25th 2022 5 50 Endemic countries
Sources:Airfinity;WHO *Confirmedandsuspected cases
Portugal 39
Canada (^23) Spain 119
Australia 2
Argentina 1
UnitedStates 8
Britain 71
No reported cases in Asia
wide association studies (which look for
synergies between different parts of a ge
nome), may be able to excavate and make
use of these.
“It's life insurance to be able to plant in
the future,” says Lise Lykke Steffensen, the
director of the Nordic Genetic Resource
Centre, which operates one of the biggest
and bestknown seed banks, the Svalbard
Global Seed Vault, in the eponymous Nor
wegian archipelago. Besides the obvious
risks of higher temperatures and more fre
quent droughts, climate change may also
encourage new pests and diseases. To pre
pare for such events, breeders will need a
formidable genetic arsenal to pick from.
Though Kharkiv’s vault remains intact,
the attack has sparked worries. Even with
Russian troops now driven back, the
150,000 samples of 1,802 species repre
senting 544 types of crop which it hosts are
still at risk while the war rages. So are col
lections of crops such as strawberries and
grapes that are propagated by cuttings
rather than seeds, and are conserved by the
bank in open fields.
Moreover, Kharkiv’s is not the only fa
cility affected by the war. In March, for ex
ample, Ukraine lost access to a plantirri
gation institute in Kherson when that city
fell to Russian forces. And, as Olga Trofimt
seva, an agriculture expert at the Ministry
of Foreign Affairs, observes, many agricul
turalresearch workers have joined the ar
my, while others have left the country.
A need for diversity
Such problems are not unprecedented. In
2002 Afghanistan’s national seed bank, in
Kabul, was destroyed in combat and loot
ed. A year later the same happened to Iraq’s
seed bank in Abu Ghraib. And a collection
of seeds from dry areas based in Aleppo,
Syria, closed in 2012 as the civil war began,
and had to be reestablished in Lebanon
and Morocco.
It has thus become good practice in all
countries to back up seed collections
abroad. The Svalbard vault, for example,
holds some 1.1m samples, many of them on
behalf of other institutions. Even so, many
gene banks, Ukraine’s included, lack the
resources to turn out the extra seeds re
quired to back their collections up com
pletely. As a result, only 2,800 of Ukraine’s
150,000 samples have duplicates in Sval
bard’s permafrost.
The country does store some duplicates
elsewhere, but unfortunately “elsewhere”
includes the Vavilov seed bank in St Peters
burg, now enemy territory. Ms Trofimtseva
hopes that after the war is over Ukraine’s
agriculturalresearch institutions, until
now hardwired into networks developed
in Russianimperial and Soviet times, will
diversify their connections byalsoplug
ging themselves into other institutions of
agronomy all around the world.n