Flight International - January 13, 2015

flightglobal.com 13-19 January 2015 | Flight International | 21

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FEATURE P22

NEWS ANALYSIS

track, starting from a known posi-
tion. The last radar contact posi-
tion of the aircraft was at 1822Z.
Inmarsat-measured beat frequency
offset data indicates that the 777
was still on a westerly heading
3min later, and that it had turned
southerly by 1840Z, leaving a
point somewhere within a 15min
window when the turn happened.
“Extending the line from just
south of Penang [where the air-
craft’s radar track passed] to the
1822Z position, it lines up within
2 ̊ with waypoint ANOKO on the
Chennai FIR boundary,” Hardy
says [see diagram right]. “Its
route and speed are known from
1722Z until 1822Z, so we can
work out a time at ANOKO of
1836Z. This satisfies the 15min

window so we will use ANOKO

as the turn point.”

Again using the “what if”

points A, B and C, which are all

on the 4th arc as defined by a sat-

com handshake at 2141Z, this

means MH370 had 3h 5min to fly

from ANOKO to arc 4. Hardy’s

measurements suggest respective

results of 443kt, 485kt and 601kt,

with the speed required to cover

the distance increasing the more

westerly the track is from the start

point. As a result, he says, there is

only one place where the speed

from ANOKO to the 4th arc is the

same as the speed from that point

to the 5th and 6th arcs.

Plotting a graph of true air

speed against longitude using the

three speeds derived for the sec-

tors from ANOKO to arc 4 and

then for the legs beyond points A,

B and C, the lines cross at 488kt

90E 95E 100E 105E 110E 115E 120E

20S

10S

0

30S

40S

85E

ANOKO

SOURCE: Capt Simon Hardy/Inmarsat/Boeing/Google

110 115

Malaysia

Previous search area a

Splash zone position: S38.082 E87.400

Area surveyeeyed eyee

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ANOKO

MH370 timing (UTC) with

corresponding rings

MH370 timing (UTC) with

corresponding rings

Kuala LumpurKuala Lumpur

Satellite ring derivation

Ring of locations equidistant

from satellite on earth surface

Australia

True airspeed 488kt/ M0.84

Track 188 ̊T

Visible to military radar

Not visible to radar

7 th

ar

c^

Arc 4 21:41

Arc 5 22:41

Arc 6 00:11

Arc 7 00:19

MH370 TRACK FROM WAYPOINT ANOKO TO ‘SPLASHDOWN’

and 91.25E. Using the same logic,

if at this point a fourth line is

drawn just 5nm west of line C,

the speed that fits the equations

at this line is 488kt and the true

track is 188 ̊T, which Hardy sug-

gests is MH370’s actual track.

VALIDATION

Another group of aviators, calling

themselves the Independent

Group – and also offering advice

for the ATSB team – like Hardy

calculates the southbound leg as

beginning at ANOKO and offers a

remarkably similar track, of

187 ̊T. As the group reached its

conclusions via slightly differing

logic, the calculations could be

considered to validate each other.

Hardy tests his argument

against calculations about where

the aircraft’s fuel would have

been exhausted. “If we follow the

188 ̊T line to the 7th arc we find

that it meets it almost exactly at

the same place where the fuel cir-

cle crosses the 7th arc,” he says.

“We have not used any reference

to fuel in the analysis whatsoever,

so this meeting of all three lines

in one place makes one feel great

confidence in the result.” The

188 ̊T track line crosses the 7th

arc at S38.528 E87.336.

Finally, he refines his data for

variations created by the aircraft’s

descent. “This method gives a

splash zone position of S38.082

E87.400. The maximum range

cruise [fuel exhaustion] arc also

goes extremely close to this point

[within 30nm].”

Hardy notes: “The ATSB [Octo-

ber] area of interest extends some

600nm along the 7th arc, but

stops 20nm short of where the

188 ̊T crosses arc 7, where I be-

lieve the aircraft is positioned.” ■

For a more detailed version of

Capt Hardy’s calculations, go to

flightglobal.com/MH370

“This meeting of all

three lines in one

place makes one

feel great confidence

in the result”

SIMON HARDY

Senior 777 captain

The Boeing

777-200 went

missing on

8 March 2014

A multinational search failed

to find any trace of MH370

AirTeamImages

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