Flight international

24 | Flight International | 15-21 August 2017 flightglobal.com

WORLD AIRLINER CENSUS

❯❯

Source: Flight Fleets Analyzer (10 July 2017)

28%

13%

5%5% 9%

4%

1% 3%

32%

Boeing

787

666

Boeing

777X

306

Airbus

A350

764

Boeing

777

113

Airbus

A330ceo

108

Airbus

A330neo

210

Boeing

767

67

Boeing

747

20

Airbus

A380

104

2,358

To tal

Widebodies: order backlog

market share

(^0200820092010201120122013201420152016) Jul-17
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
Number of aircraft
Source: Flight Fleets Analyzer
China
Backlog in China 2008-2017
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jul-17
Number of aircraft
Source: Flight Fleets Analyzer
China
In service fleet distribution in China 2008-2017
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Perhaps surprisingly, China has been
relatively slow to develop a network of region-
al feeders, with only about 140 aircraft in ser-
vice at the end of 2016, mostly 85- and
100-seaters. The 50-seater fleet is being rapidly
phased out. Deliveries of the new Chinese-
built Comac ARJ programme, although de-
layed, began in 2016; Flight Ascend antici-
pates that the development of airports in
smaller cities will lead to growth of regional
connections. The delivery forecast of some 535
regional jets over 20 years is just 7% of China’s
total and will be initially focused on 85-seaters
like the ARJ21 before more 100-seaters arrive
in the 2020s. Overall, the fleet is expected to
rise to 540 by 2036.
SINGLE-AISLE DOMINANCE
Globally, Flight Ascend forecasts 43,725
new commercial jet and turboprop aircraft to
enter passenger and freighter airline service
over the next 20 years. The global commer-
cial aircraft fleet in service is expected to in-
crease by 81% to 51,200 aircraft at the end of
2036, including 42,855 passenger jets, 4,470
passenger turboprops and 3,875 freighters.
Single-aisle jets will account for 65% of de-
liveries and 48% of delivery value, with twin-
aisle types at 17% and 42%, respectively.
The core of the single-aisle market will re-
main in the 150-seat size, with more than
60% of demand by value, although the larger
180-seat size will take an increasingly bigger
share. The 300-seater twin-aisles will lead
their category, with 40% of twin-aisle value.
Just under half of deliveries will be for re-
placement purposes, as some 74% of the cur-
rent fleet is forecast to be retired during the
20-year period. This includes about 18,930
Boeing
Growing 787 range is steadily climbing the
in-service fleet rankings