DECEMBER 2017 AUSTRALIAN AVIATION 27GREAT SOUTHERN LANDS
widebody airliners of the 787 size over
the next 20 years. Given Qantas is by
far the largest of the three major airline
groups in Australasia, that suggests
a much larger Qantas 787 fleet in the
longer term.
Joyce hinted a 787 fleet in the
“teens” was likely at the minimum.
“We’ve always said that the eight
aircraft that we have as an example
of the 787s is a minimum,” he said.
“We’d like to have a lot more than
that. You actually do have to get in the
teens, I think, for the aircraft to have
a minimum flyable level of operation.
Eventually, we will be ordering more of
the 787s because we think it’s a great
aircraft. It’s just at what pace of time
that we do that.”
How and where Qantas deploys the
787 will also determine how many 787s
it eventually acquires. One point Joyce
stressed was that it was unlikely the
787-9 would be deployed on domestic
routes – at least after VH-ZNA finishes
its domestic flying in November and
December while crews build currency
and experience on the type.
For the domestic mission, especially
on east coast trunk routes, the 787, like
the A330, is too heavy, Joyce said.
“With the 787s, as with the
330s, we find that they are pretty
powerful over-specced aircraft for
flying Melbourne to Sydney, so the
economics do not work on those legs.
What we have done is we’ve added
more and more frequencies, which the
market likes with 737s, and that has
dramatically improved the economics
of our domestic operation.
Instead Joyce revealed Qantas
is looking very closely at Boeing’s
proposed New Mid-sized Airplane
(NMA) project to develop a new small
widebody airliner.
“That’s why this mid-range aircraft
is actually very interesting, because
while there are slots at Sydney today,
[over time it will be] completely full.We know that. But I think our forecast
has by 2023, we’re thinking we’ll be
full and therefore having bigger aircraft
that can do those routes, I think is
going to be key.”
Qantas is “very keen” on the
prospects of the NMA, which the
Qantas boss described as “a fantastic
transcontinental and maybe [to] Asia
aircraft”.
“The economics of that on paper
look good,” Joyce said.
“We think there is a bit of gap... and
Boeing thinks that as well,” Joyce said.
“This is where Qantas is probably
unique because we want ultra long-
range but we also have a huge domestic
network, so you want an aircraft unlike
the 787s and the A330s which are
designed for long range and are heavier
than what we want [for domestic flying]
so the economics on domestic takes a
hit, whereas this aircraft could be the
perfect vehicle east-west, into South-
East Asia and leveraging the [available]
slots [at Sydney].
“And that is something that we are
very keen on and are working through.”
And at the other end of the size
scale, Qantas’s likely 787 order
book is likely to be affected by the
decision it makes for its ‘Project
Sunrise’ requirement for an ultra
long-range aircraft, a development of
either Boeing’s 777-8X or the Airbus
A350-900ULR, capable of operating
nonstop between the east coast of
Australia to London and New York.
Joyce says the existing Airbus
and Boeing designs come close in
terms of meeting the mission of a full
passenger and cargo payload in both
directions for London and New York
from Australia’s east coast capitals of
Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney, as
well as points in South America and
South Africa.
“We think this challenge is feasible,”
Joyce said.
“From our perspective, the critical
thing is to get it with full payload. We
want the full capability of the 777-8X
on those routes with full passenger
payload and full freight payload.”
While most of the initial focus when
Project Sunrise was publicly launched
in August was on London Heathrow
(9,188nm from Sydney) and New
York JFK (8,647nm), Qantas has also
earmarked Rio de Janeiro in Brazil
(7,312nm) and Cape Town (5,946nm)
in South Africa as new frontiers for
nonstop service.
And Joyce has publicly stated a
desire to mount nonstop flights to otherVH-ZNA departs Paine Field on
the first leg of its delivery flight
to Sydney.SARAH COLLINS