New Zealand Listener – June 01, 2019

JUNE 1 2019 LISTENER 11

LIFE

Ngaro-ing the gap

Many in Botany

are unhappy

at speculation

that they might

be sacrificed

to Ngaro’s

Christians.

ST

EV

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BO

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O

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BILL

RALSTON

I

t appears we may have the second

coming of a Christian party at the

next election. Well, actually, it is

at least the fifth coming of one.

Ex-National MP Graeme Lee formed

one, Graham Capill ran another,

Brian Tamaki is rumbling about start-

ing one (he’s been there before, from

2003-7), and Colin Craig founded the

Conservative Party.

Putting aside the fact that Capill

was convicted of child sex offences

after quitting Christian Heritage and

Craig had a peculiar public meltdown

with his press secretary 48 hours

before the 2014 election, faith-based

parties seem unable to

win more than 4% of

the vote, short of the

5% needed to enter

Parliament without an

electorate seat. How-

ever, the right leader

might just get them in

the door.

Hence the specula-

tion that National MP

Alfred Ngaro might

be given a safe seat, à

la Epsom and Act, to

start a new Christian

party. In Parliament,

the National Party is

Nigel No-mates and the

support of a Christian

party may push it over

the top and back into

power in 2020.

This is a little

Could Christian

soldiers march

no-mates National

into office?

“I thought I’d love living in the country but I’m getting

really tired of picking up after all these ponies.”

hopeful, but it is a better strategy than leader Simon

Bridges closing his eyes and wishing that NZ First

and the Greens would fall below 5% of the vote

and exit Parliament, letting National and Labour go

head to head.

Cook Islands-born Ngaro is a genial chap and a

pastor. Chances are he would pull a sizeable chunk

of the Auckland Polynesian vote from Labour and,

if other churchgoers followed, he may get the cru-

cial 5% for a new party.

Giving Ngaro a winnable seat could be a better

guarantee of a support party for National than its

“blue green” imaginary friends, who seem to have

vanished without trace. The problem is, which

seat? National voters in the East Auckland con-

stituency of Botany, left reeling when elected MP

Jami-Lee Ross turned independent, were hoping for

a real National candidate, and many are reacting

badly to media speculation that they might be

sacrificed to Ngaro’s Christians.

Of course, with Act moribund on about 1% sup-

port, the loyal centre-right voters of Epsom may be

persuaded to drop David Seymour for a potentially

more popular Ngaro. But that’s a big “maybe”.

N

garo would need a key issue

to ignite the Christian vote

and capture 5% of the vote.

Homosexual law reform and gay

marriage are now law and opposition

to them is an unlikely vote-catcher.

His best bet is probably opposing

cannabis law reform, which will

be put to a referendum during the

election.

Many voters implacably oppose

legalising marijuana. Some Christians

seem to believe there is an 11th com-

mandment that says “Thou shall not

smoke dope”. This could be a good

banner for Ngaro and his Christian

soldiers to march under, gathering

up other clean-living folk to push

the party over the 5% barrier into

Parliament without having to win an

electorate seat.

National’s biggest problem is that

Labour has gone solidly centrist,

chomping into former blue votes.

It is not making the

mistake of Labor’s Bill

Shorten in Australia,

who campaigned on

substantial tax hikes

for many, forgetting

the maxim regard-

ing turkeys and early

Christmases.

Here, Labour is

projecting a warm and

fuzzy brand, despite

such apparent set-

backs as the KiwiBuild

programme.

A looming danger for

Labour is the property

market going into full

free fall and eroding by

too much a property

owner’s sense of wealth.

Politics is a tricky tight-

rope to tread. l