2019 Nigeria –
history of a struggle foretold
T
hereisplentyofnoiseinNigeria:clashes
between communities in the Middle
Belt; Delta militants slow to shoul-
der arms in the South; and Islamists
fighting the military in the north-east.
Naturally, attention focuses on Nigeria’s ethnic
and religious fault lines.
But another clash looms that could throw shade
over all these battles: a generational political
clash. One, older, ruling class is leaving the stage;
another, ‘middle-aged’ one is taking the reins;
and a younger generation is disputing that power
as the presidential elections of 2019 hover into
view. The generation of young Nigerians under
40 is slowly coming to terms with the nuanced
nature of the country’s politics, with fewer ethnic
and regional filters.
Generations can create powerful waves that drive
change across countries. The US generation born
in the 20 years following World War II, known as
the Baby Boomers, have been a defining force in
the 20th and 21st centuries. Coming of age in the
1960s and 1970s, they were on the forefront of social
change, including the later stages of the civil rights
movement, protests against the Vietnam war, and
the second wave of the feminist movement.
To the ‘first generation’ of post-independence
politicians in Nigeria, the sudden and violent
emergence of a military-led political class in 1966
was a shock. What prompted the young soldiers to
seize power were rifts between politicians, and a
series of increasingly violent elections.When the military took power,the hopes of the
second generation of politicians were truncated.
Power did not transit from the first generation
of politicians to a second generation, but to a
generation of soldiers who have held power under
various guises ever since.
The military ruled for the next 13 years direct-
ly, and then indirectly after Olusegun Obasanjo
handed over to Shehu Shagari, a cabinet member
in Nigeria’s First Republic, following his victory
over Obafemi Awolowo in the 1979 elections.ChetaNwanze
Head of research, SBM Intelligence, Nigeria*Both Shagari and Awolowo belonged to the
First Generation, hence 1979 was still a contest
within the set of leaders that broadly led the
country to its independence.
Then followed a slew of coups, as the military
tightened their grip. Shagari was deposed in 1983,
bringing Muhammadu Buhari to power. Buhari,
having participated in one of the 1966 coups,
was also a member of that First Generation of
politically awake military officers.
Buhari was deposed by Ibrahim Babangida in- Babangida ruled until 1993, when he was
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