44 China TheEconomistJune11th 2022
offset the shortfall during it.
In Shanghai’s case, that is a tall order.
Retail sales fell by almost half in April,
compared with a year earlier. From that
low point, sales would have to grow by al
most 100% merely to get back to normal.
For sales to exceed normal by as much as
they fell short of it during the lockdown,
they would have to grow by roughly 200%
from trough to peak.
In some categories of spending, such as
cars, refrigerators and other “durable” con
sumer items, a fairly complete recovery is
imaginable. Those who were not able to
buy in April or May could make their pur
chase in the summer instead, provided
they kept their jobs. That could leave annu
al sales close to where they would have
been without the lockdown. To encourage
this kind of catchup buying, Shanghai’s
government has increased the quota of
new car number plates it will allow this
year by 40,000. It has also offered subsi
dies for the purchase of electric vehicles
and “smart” appliances.
But in many other categories, including
services and perishable goods, consump
tion has been forgone, not merely post
poned. “My hair has not been trimmed for
three months,” said Sheng Songcheng of
China Europe International Business
School at an economic forum last month.
“After the lockdown is lifted, it is impossi
ble for me to trim my hair three times a
month. This lost consumption will be lost
forever.” The same is true of gym trips, res
taurant meals and weekend revelries. Peo
ple cannot have thrice as many workouts,
lunches, or weekends to compensate.
Since one person’s spending is anoth
er’s income, weak consumption has also
hurt jobs and pay. Unemployment in Chi
na’s biggest cities now exceeds its rate in
early 2020. Morgan Stanley’s survey arm,
AlphaWise, asked more than 2,000 urban
Chinese about their job situation. Over a
quarter said they or a relativehad received
a pay cut in the past month.
Moreover, the lifting of lockdown hasnotentirelyliftedpeople’sfears.Thecon
sumerexpectationindexbytheNational
BureauofStatisticsfellto 87 inApril,byfar
itslowestpointsince thedata beganin- (Below 100 denotes pessimism;
above,optimism.)Theworstreadingdur
ing the pandemic’s first wave was 115.
Whenaskedabouttheirspendingplans,
more peoplesaytheywill cutspending
thansaytheywillincreaseit(seechart).
Theonlyexceptionsarespendingongro
ceriesandeducation,aspeoplestockup
theirlardersandminds.Thereis“perma
nent scarring on consumer behaviour”,
saysRobinXingofMorganStanley.
China’sstatenewsbulletinsstilldwell
oncoviddeathsabroad.Thathelpscasta
favourablelightonChina’sowncontain
mentpolicies,buthardlyliftsthemood.
Thosewhoarenolongerscaredofthevirus
arefrightenedofthelockdownsthatfol
lowinitswake.InthemostrecentAlpha
Wisesurvey,respondentswereaskedto
listtheirtopconcernsfortheyear.Forty
fivepercentsaid“arelapseofcovid19in
mycommunity”.Chinahasvanquisheda
seriousOmicronwave.Buttheviruscould
stillcomebackwitha vengeance.n
Sorry, Hermès
China, balance of respondents intending to
increase/decrease spending next month
May 25th-29th 2022, percentage pointsSource:MorganStanley Research-40-60 -20 40200Luxury productsEntertainmentConsumer electronicsHome appliancesMortgage/rentBeautyClothingEating out and alcoholEducationGroceriesBeinggayinChinaPride and
prejudice
“W
hydidI givebirthto a monster?”
asks the mother of Huang Shuli in
his awardwinning documentary short
film, “Will You Look at Me”. Mr Huang, who
grew up in the coastal city of Wenzhou, has
filmed his mum tending her garden, pick
ing flowers and swimming in the wild.
There are several dreamy shots of her smil
ing when she sees him. The audio, though,
is from an anguished conversation be
tween the two about his homosexuality.
It was never easy to be gay in China,
where the government cares little about
the rights of sexual minorities. lgbtactiv
ists were allowed some space in the early
years of President Xi Jinping’s reign, even
as he crushed other parts of civil society.
Last year, though, lgbtsocieties at several
universities saw their socialmedia ac
counts closed for unspecified violations.
Groups pushing for more inclusion have
shut down, with members citing an
increasingly hostile environment. June is
celebrated as “pride month” in parts of the
world, but China’s only big lgbtcelebra
tion, Shanghai Pride, has not occurred
since 2020, when police interrogated sev
eral of its organisers.State media amplify Chinese national
ists who accuse lgbt groups of serving
hostile foreign forces and corrupting
young people. Last year the top media reg
ulator banned portrayals of “effeminate”
and “sissy” men. This year it banned “boys’
love” dramas, a popular genre of shows
featuring subtly romantic male friend
ships. The education ministry has called
for strengthening physical education to
“cultivate masculinity” and prevent the
“feminisation” of boys.
These policies reflect a belief among
China’s leaders that sexual orientation can
be socially engineered, says Darius Longa
rino of Yale University. “The party is afraid
that forces outside its control had been
changing the cultural landscape so much
that it was going to change the sexual ori
entation or gender of China’s youth.” Now
it wants to make young people “normal”
and “healthy” according to its own vision,
says Mr Longarino.
Another potential avenue is conversion
therapy, which is still legal, despite the ef
forts of Peng Yanzi, an activist. Mr Peng vo
luntarily underwent hypnotism and elec
tric shocks intended to “cure” his homo
sexuality. In 2014 he sued the clinic and
won, receiving an apology. The ruling,
which stated that samesex attraction is
not an illness, received sympathetic media
coverage. For a time it seemed as if things
might improve for gay people in China.
But the case did not change the law,
which discounts the rights of sexual mi
norities. Mr Peng’s group, lgbtRights Ad
vocacy China, closed last year amid pres
sure from the authorities. Today there is
much less discussion of lgbt issues.
“Everyone is living in a state of silence,”
says Mr Huang (who lives in New York).
His voice, though, broke through. “Will
You Look at Me” was not released in China,
but it has been pirated and sharedonline.
On Douban, a Chinese film site, ithasre
ceived thousands of positive reviews.nLife is getting harder for
sexual minoritiesAdarkening mood