The Economist June 11th 2022 51
EuropeFrenchparliamentaryelectionsDamage control
F
iveyears ago, a wave of political debu
tants surged into the French National
Assembly. A teacher from Strasbourg, an
entrepreneur from Lyon, a farmer from
Brittany, a fireman from western France:
all these, and many more, won seats for
Emmanuel Macron’s centrist party, then
called La République en Marche. With al
lies it bagged 60% of the lower house of
parliament, marking a wholesale clearout
that lowered the average age of deputies
and filled the assembly with women.
Today, however, it is Mr Macron’s party
that faces an insurgency at the ballot box,
which could deprive the reelected presi
dent of his majority and put a stop to any
further plans for reforms. On June 12th and
19th voters will elect a new parliament. Na
tionally, the polls put Ensemble, Mr Mac
ron’s centrist alliance, neckandneck with
JeanLuc Mélenchon’s new radicalleft
grouping nupes, which includes the So
cialists, Communists and Greens. Under
the tworound firstpastthepost system,
Mr Macron’s alliance is likely to remain the
biggest. nupes looks set to replace the cen
treright Republicans as the main opposi
tion, grabbing at least three times as many
seats as both that party and Marine Le Pen’s
National Rally. Mr Mélenchon is unlikely
to win a majority. But polls suggest that the
president could lose his, with a shortfall of
anything from 14 to 39 seats.
By swallowing the moderate left, the
70yearold wisecracking Mr Mélenchon,
who admires Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez and
wants France out of nato, has forged a po
tent leftwing movement that has achieved
uncommon unity. It appeals in particular
to the greenminded, the citydwelling and
the young: 44% of 18 to 24yearolds back
him. This time it is Mr Mélenchon who is
fielding the boldest novices, including a
baker in eastern France and a chamber
maid near Paris. Although he is not even
running for reelection, he has also deftly
framed the debate around the role he fan
cies for himself: as Mr Macron’s prime
minister. “What will you say to him when
you turn up at the Elysée on day one?”
asked a radio host.
Sensing this threat, Mr Macron last
month named as his new prime minister
Elisabeth Borne, an engineer and civil servant who has built her career working for
Socialist politicians. Her nomination itself
will win few votes on the left, but it marks a
shift after Mr Macron’s two previous prime
ministers, each of whom hailed from the
centreright. Ms Borne has promised a
“food cheque” for the lowpaid and other
measures to shield the French from infla
tion. The president has borrowed Mr Mé
lenchon’s core idea of “green planning” to
underpin policymaking. Mr Macron has al
so named as his new education minister
Pap Ndiaye, a historian who has written a
lot about race and discrimination. Much done, much still to do
Mr Macron enjoys sweeping powers under
the French constitution, including the
right to pass laws with minimal parlia
mentary oversight and to appoint the
prime minister. But, politically, he still
needs a working majority to finish what he
started in his first term. This includes a re
form of the pension system, which would
increase the retirement age from 62 years
to 64 or 65. At stake in the parliamentary
vote, in other words, is whether Mr Macron
can continue as an economic reformer and
moderniser of the French welfare state.
The answer will be a firm no if Mr Mé
lenchon pulls off a surprise and secures a
majority. Mr Macron has hinted that he
would refuse to name him prime minister.
But he would find it extremely hard not
to—just as Jacques Chirac, a Gaullist, ap
pointed Lionel Jospin, a Socialist, after los
ing his majority in 1997. In the job Mr MéP ARIS
Emmanuel Macron’s majority is on the line→Alsointhissection
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