The Economist - USA (2019-11-02)

The EconomistNovember 2nd 2019 Middle East & Africa 41

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1

ate of al-Qaeda which is opposed to is.

But Idlib is also home to Hurras al-Din, a

more radical splinter of htsstill loyal to al-

Qaeda. Mr Baghdadi was found in an area

controlled by the group, in the house of one

of its leaders. Some reports suggest that his

host was an isagent, but several experts

raise another intriguing possibility: that

Mr Baghdadi was exploring a rapproche-

ment with al-Qaeda, from which isacrimo-

niously split in 2013. A detente between the

two titans of global terrorism would cause

a serious headache for counter-terrorism

officials around the world.

isalready has a presence far beyond Syr-

ia and Iraq. Its franchises remain a threat,

despite a slowing in the pace of their at-

tacks in 2018. Islamic State Khorasan has

entrenched itself in eastern Afghanistan. It

conducted more suicide-bombings than

the Taliban in 2018, despite losing more

than 50 senior leaders in the past few years.

The isbranch in northern Nigeria, which

split from Boko Haram, is becoming steadi-

ly more powerful. And since 2018 there

have been 11issuicide bombings in Indo-

nesia and six in the Philippines, including

one that killed 23 worshippers in January.

Turkey fears it may be a target for imme-

diate retaliation. This spring the interior

minister remarked that is activity was

higher than at any time in nearly three

years. “The longer they fail to stage attacks,

the more desperate they are to do so,” says a

security official. Within days of Mr Bagh-

dadi’s death, dozens of alleged issympa-

thisers were detained, including three men

suspected of planning a big attack in Istan-

bul on October 29th, a national holiday.

Yet the raid that killed Mr Baghdadi took

place just a few kilometres from the Turk-

ish border, in a part of Syria crawling with

Turkish informers and dotted with Turkish

army posts. Mr Muhajir was found in Jara-

bulus, within a Syrian “safe zone” that Tur-

key established in 2016. The presence of is

leaders on Turkey’s doorstep points to an

embarrassing lapse in intelligence.

Although Mr Trump thanked Turkey for

its help, officials in Ankara made only a few

vague statements about their role. A source

close to the Turkish army says “no intelli-

gence or military co-operation” took place

between America and Turkey. The Ameri-

cans gave notice only to avoid conflict with

the Turkish army. That American comman-

dos embarked from northern Iraq, 700km

from their target, instead of an airbase in

southern Turkey, is a sign of how frosty re-

lations are between the two natoallies.

The raid came just weeks after Mr

Trump withdrew American troops from

north-east Syria, clearing the way for Tur-

key to invade and rout the People’s Protec-

tion Units (ypg), a Kurdish-led militia that

fought isalongside the Americans. His or-

der left the region to be carved up by Tur-

key, Russia, and Mr Assad’s regime. And it

reportedly imperilled the Baghdadi opera-

tion, which relied on Kurdish assistance.

The withdrawal has since been partially

reversed. America now says it will leave

troops in eastern Syria and will even send

tanks to prevent isfrom seizing oilfields,

once a key source of revenue. But the group

is in no position to do so. More likely the

Americans intend to stop Mr Assad from

tapping his own oil, an objective that is

both strategically and legally dubious.

It is confusion, not a successful com-

mando raid, that will be Mr Trump’s legacy

in Syria. The mission relied on having

American troops in the region, which he is

withdrawing; working with allies, whom

he disparages; and relying on intelligence

agencies, which he derides. When Mr

Baghdadi’s successor emerges, America

will be ill-placed to deal with him. 7

100 km

TURKEY

JORDAN

SAUDIARABIA

LEBANON

ISRAEL

SYRIA

IRAQ

IRAN

Damascus Baghdad

Aleppo

Samarra

Jarabulus Mosul

Idlib

Sparsely

populated

Tigri

s

Mediterranean

Sea

Euphr

Jihadists ates

SiteofAbuBakr

al-Baghdadi’sdeath

Turkishtroopsand

Turkish-backedSyrianrebels

Turkishtroops

Rebels

(US-backed)

Government

Government

Kurdsandgovernment Kurds

Areasofcontrol

October28th 2019

Fatalities 20 60

Islamic State attacks

Jan 1st-Oct 29th 2019

Sources:Sources: IHS Conflict Monitor; ACLEDIHSConflictMonitor;ACLED

A

fter nearlytwo weeks of nationwide

protests, the demonstrators in Leba-

non claimed their first scalp. On October

29th the prime minister, Saad Hariri, said

he had reached a “dead end” trying to deal

with their demands over corruption and

the stagnant economy. A package of mea-

gre reforms, announced on October 21st,

satisfied no one. So Mr Hariri said he was

stepping down, along with his govern-

ment. “It has become necessary for us to

make a great shock to fix the crisis,” he said.

Upon hearing the news, protesters in Bei-

rut broke into applause.

Mr Hariri’s government had struggled

to perform the most basic tasks, such as

providing 24-hour electricity or drinkable

water. Internet connections in Lebanon are

among the world’s slowest. Rubbish often

piles up in the streets, or is dumped in the

Mediterranean. After the government in

mid-October proposed to tax calls made via

WhatsApp, a messaging service, public an-

ger erupted. As many as 1m people have

joined the protests, in a country with fewer

than 5m citizens. Mr Hariri’s departure is

unlikely to persuade the demonstrators to

end their campaign.

A rotten political system is at the heart

of Lebanon’s problems. The agreement that

ended the country’s 15-year civil war in 1990

created a complex power-sharing arrange-

ment that remains in place today. Govern-

ment posts and public-sector jobs are div-

vied up among Sunnis, Shias and

Christians—regardless of merit. Former

warlords still hold sway, hogging govern-

ment contracts. Some people fear that the

resignation of Mr Hariri, a Sunni, will

merely contribute to rising sectarian ten-

sions. Michel Aoun, a doddering Christian,

remains president; Nabih Berri, a Shia, is

speaker of parliament.

Both men are allied to Lebanon’s stron-

gest power-broker, Hassan Nasrallah, who

leads Hizbullah, a Shia militia-cum-politi-

cal-party backed by Iran. Many blame it for

aggravating the crisis. The resignation of

Mr Hariri leaves it more exposed. But rather

than come up with solutions, Mr Nasrallah

has denounced the protests as an Israeli

and American plot. Shortly before Mr Hari-

ri tendered his resignation, bully boys clad

in black and answering to Mr Nasrallah

stormed Beirut’s Martyrs’ Square, the cen-

tre of the protests. “Shia, Shia,” they

chanted as they beat protesters. Riot police

watched. “The security forces don’t want to

The prime minister’s resignation is

unlikely to satisfy protesters

Lebanon’s crisis

A Saad ending