The Economist - USA (2019-11-02)

42 Middle East & Africa The EconomistNovember 2nd 2019

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dealwiththeprotestsformally,sotheydo

it informally,withthugs,”saysAliHashem,

a Lebanesecommentator.

Despitesuchprovocations,theprotests

sofarhavebeenremarkablypeacefuland

non-sectarian.OnOctober27thhundreds

of thousands of peopleformed achain

stretchingfromSidoninthesouthtoAkkar

inthenorth.Demonstratorshavestaged

ravesincitysquaresandmadeBeethoven’s

“OdetoJoy”theiranthem.Buttheyarealso

leaderlessandlackcleargoals.Somewanta

secularparliamentinwhichmps areindi-

viduallyelected,ratherthanthroughsec-

tarianlists,asunderthecurrentsystem.

Othersfearthat,giventhenumericalsupe-

riorityofShias,suchreformswouldsimply

entrenchHizbullahinpower.

AdaybeforeMrHaririresigned,Riad

Salameh,theveterancentral-bankgover-

nor,saidLebanonneededa politicalsol-

utiontoavertaneconomiccollapse.Banks

havebeenclosedforovera week,leadingto

fearsofarunwhentheyreopen. Mean-

whiletheprotestersaregrowingtiredand

moreconcernedabouttheirsafety,saysan

organiser.FacedwiththeprospectofHiz-

bullahtakingoverthegovernment,some

maypreferstickingwiththeoldpolitical

class,evenMrHariri(whohasbeenasked

tostayonasa caretakerprimeminister).

Westernpowersmightbeconvincedtore-

leaselong-promisedloans.Noneofthat,

though,wouldsolveLebanon’sdeepstruc-

turalproblems.^7

N

eartheportofBissau,thecapitalof

Guinea-Bissau,oneofAfrica’ssmallest

states,isa neglectedmonumenttopastre-

bellion.A giantfistofblacksteelcommem-

orates strikingdockersgunneddownby

Portuguese soldiersin1959.Thestrike—

andsubsequentmassacre—helpedstarta

warforindependenceledbytheAfrican

PartyfortheIndependenceofGuineaand

Cape Verde (paigc), a Soviet-sponsored

guerrillamovement.Ittookpowerin 1974

whenPortugal’sdictatorshipfell.

Formuchofthenearly 50 yearssince,

themain probleminGuinea-Bissau has

beenthepaigc. Presidentialelectionsare

dueonNovember24th.OnOctober29th

thepresident,JoséMárioVaz,sackedhis

governmentandappointedanewprime

minister,thoughthedismissedone,Aristi-

desGomes,refusedtoleaveoffice.Ifhe

does,itwillbringtoeightthenumberof

BISSAU

Africa’smostfamousnarco-stategoes

tothepolls

BreakingBissau

Coups,drugsand

party finance

I

f it were not for the flags being waved, it

would be difficult to tell the difference

between the protests in Lebanon and those

in Iraq. In Baghdad, as in Beirut, masses of

people have taken to the streets, angry over

corruption, poor governance and a lack of

jobs. Thousands have also come out in cit-

ies such as Basra and Karbala in Iraq’s Shia

south, the government’s heartland. But un-

like in Lebanon (so far), the protests in Iraq

have been met with extreme violence. At

least 250 people have been killed by the au-

thorities and their allied militias since the

turmoil began on October 1st.

It looks as if Adel Abdul-Mahdi, Iraq’s

prime minister, may suffer the same fate as

his Lebanese counterpart, Saad Hariri, who

stepped down on October 29th. Mr Abdul-

Mahdi came to power after elections last

year produced a political deadlock. He was

the compromise candidate of Muqtada al-

Sadr,afirebrandclericwholeads parlia-

ment’s largest bloc, and Hadi al-Amiri, who

heads an alliance of Iranian-backed Shia

militias. But Mr Sadr has now abandoned

him and Mr Amiri is wavering.

His removal is unlikely to satisfy the

protesters. Most see him as a puppet of the

politicians who have plundered Iraq. Even

after the jihadists of Islamic State were

pushed off their territory two years ago, the

government dithered over rebuilding. The

people have benefited little from record oil

production. About a fifth of the population

is poor. But instead of helping them, politi-

cians enrich themselves and their militias.

Much of the public’s anger has focused

on those militias and their patron, Iran

(which calls the protests an act of sedition).

In the holy city of Karbala protesters tore

down posters of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,

Iran’s supreme leader, and burnt the Irani-

an consulate. A mob in Amarah lynched the

local commander of Asaib Ahl al-Haq, a mi-

litia that considers Mr Khamenei its leader.

And in Kut protesters torched the home of

Qasim al-Araji, a prominent member of Mr

Amiri’s alliance.

Militia commanders vowed revenge. On

October 27th Abu Mahdi al-Muhandes, the

deputy head of the Hashd al-Shaabi, an

umbrella group of government-funded mi-

litias, ordered his men to “stand against

discord”. The next day his followers opened

fire on protesters in Karbala. Between 14

and 30 people were reportedly killed. The

authorities say no one died.

In the past Mr Sadr championed prot-

ests. But this time his efforts to co-opt

them have failed. When he drove to a rally

in his hometown of Najaf, protesters

would not let him out of his car. More se-

nior clerics also seem to be losing their

sway. Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani has

called for restraint on both sides. But some

criticise him for helping bring to power the

parties responsible for misgoverning Iraq.

The authorities have re-raised the con-

crete barriers around Baghdad’s Green

Zone, the seat of government. Inside, some

favour an even more forceful response to

the unrest and want Mr Abdul-Mahdi to

take the rap until the bloodshed is over.

Others have begun squabbling over who

gets what once the prime minister goes.

Outside, the protesters are becoming

more angry, more confident and more nu-

merous. Some observers fear they will take

down the whole political system. What

they want to replace it with is unclear.^7

Another Arab prime minister looks set

to fall, as protests continue in Iraq

Iraq’s crisis

A bloody mess

Burning with rage in Baghdad