2019-11-09_The_Economist

(Tuis.) #1

50 Britain The EconomistNovember 9th 2019


2 “get Brexit done”. Beyond that, Mr Randall’s
message to voters is limited. Crime and the
green belt are mentioned in his literature,
but these play second fiddle. “tom ran-
dall will respect gedling’s vote to
leave,” booms one leaflet.
Yet Leave voters are not in the bag for Mr
Randall yet. About half intend to vote Con-
servative, according to our poll. The bulk of
the rest go for the Brexit Party. In seats with
only a narrowish majority for Brexit, the
Conservatives will need the support of al-
most every Leave voter. In nearby Labour-
held constituencies such as Ashfield, a for-
mer mining community where 70%
backed Brexit, the Tories could afford to
lose more Leave voters to other parties. But
there are many more Gedlings than Ash-
fields. There are 46 Labour-held seats that
the Conservatives could win with a 5%
swing. Of those, 11 voted Remain. Another
21—including Gedling—had a Leave vote of
between 50% and 60%. Only 14 backed
Brexit by more than 60%.
There is a reason Mr Coaker is happy to
pose with propaganda painting him as a
fan of the eu. About 70% of those who vot-
ed Labour in 2017 backed Remain in the ref-
erendum. Labour’s strategy in Gedling, and
across the country, is to bank on Britain’s
relationship with the eu sinking to its nat-
ural place in the political debate: a second-
order issue for most voters. It believes that
more workaday issues, such as schools,
crime and hospitals, will win out. If “La-
bour Leavers” go anywhere, it will be to the
Brexit Party, argues Mr Coaker. Straight La-
bour-to-Tory switchers will be few.
If Brexit is not the main issue, other pro-
blems may hit Labour. Infighting is one. On
November 6th the party’s deputy leader,
Tom Watson, announced he was stepping
down, after years of clashing with Jeremy
Corbyn, his boss. The bigger problem is Mr
Corbyn himself, the least popular opposi-
tion leader in history. In Gedling, only four
out of ten Labour voters think he would
make the best prime minister. By contrast,
nearly all Tory voters there back Mr John-
son. A serious-looking prime minister

findshiswayontoToryleaflets,whereas
MrCorbynisnowheretobeseenonLa-
bour’s,whichfeaturelargepicturesofMr
Coaker.MrCorbyn’sratingsimproveddra-
maticallyinthe 2017 election,butthatpar-
ticularsoufflémaynotrisetwice.
Still,themessagefromtheMidlandsisa
warningtothegovernment.Anditcomes
ina weekwhentheConservatives’national
campaigngotofftoa dreadfulstart.Alun
Cairns,thesecretaryofstateforWales,re-
signedfromthecabinetfollowingclaims
thatheknewofa formeraide’sroleinthe
“sabotage”ofa rapetrial.Thepreviousday
JacobRees-Mogg,theleaderoftheHouseof
Commons,hadtoapologiseforimplying
thatthosewhodiedintheGrenfellTower
firelackedthe“commonsense”torunto
safety.The BrexitParty’s announcement
thatit willruncandidatesineveryseatwill
nothelptheConservatives.
Aboveall,itwilltakemorethanBrexit
towinseatslike Gedlingwhentheyare
splitdownthemiddleonthetopic.Until
theToriesputtogethertherestofa pro-
gramme,Labourwillbebullish.“We’real-
wayssupposedtolose,”saysMrCoakerof
hisprospects.“Butweneverdo.” 7

Seats to beat

Sources:ElectoralCommission;TheEconomist

England and Wales, seatswonby
Labour in 2017 where Conservatives
weresecond-placed

2

Ranking of Conservativetargetseats

0 20 40 60 80

Swing
required
% points
10

8
6

4
2

0

Gedling
constituency

London
Midlands
North
South
Wales

I


n northern irelandBrexit has served
mainly to harden already uncompromis-
ing attitudes. But in the election campaign
there are surprising signs that it has in-
spired a new—though probably tempo-
rary—form of pragmatism.
The most remarkable example came on
November 4th when Sinn Fein, the largest
and most hardline republican party, urged
its supporters to vote for a unionist mp. “It
sits very comfortably with me,” said Sinn
Fein’s leader, Mary Lou McDonald, as she
endorsed Lady Sylvia Hermon, the inde-
pendent mpfor North Down, whose late
husband was head of Northern Ireland’s
police. The Social Democratic and Labour
Party (sdlp), a more moderate nationalist
party, also said it would stand aside.
Their tactical support for Lady Sylvia
was due to her opposition to Brexit. Sinn
Fein and the sdlpboth backed Remain,
whereas the Democratic Unionist Party
(dup), which until recently propped up Bo-
ris Johnson’s government, supported
Leave. A vote for Lady Sylvia, Ms McDonald
declared, was the best way to keep out the
dup. Two days later Lady Sylvia, who is 64,
said she would not run, citing family rea-

sons. The dupis now expected to win the
seat. But North Down is not the only con-
stituency seeing such pacts—even if the
parties prefer not to use that word.
Sinn Fein and the sdlpare standing
down in Belfast East, to help Naomi Long of
the non-sectarian (and pro-Remain) Alli-
ance party. She hopes to unseat Gavin Rob-
inson, the low-profile dup incumbent.
Though she once held the seat and is a spir-
ited campaigner, Ms Long faces an uphill
struggle to overturn an 8,474 majority. Sinn
Fein and the sdlp’s deal ought to help her,
but not by much: in 2017 they won barely
1,000 votes between them.
Pacts could have a bigger impact in two
other seats. In Belfast South, Sinn Fein is
sitting out the race to allow the sdlp a clear
run. The local mpis the dup’s Emma Little-
Pengelly, another lacklustre presence in
Westminster. Her majority is just 1,996. The
sdlp’s candidate is Claire Hanna, a more
dynamic politician and better tvperform-
er. She also has the backing of the pro-Re-
main Greens, making her the narrow fa-
vourite to take the seat.
In the sectarian cockpit of Belfast
North, the sdlpis returning the favour,
standing aside to give Sinn Fein a better
chance of unseating the dup’s leader in
Westminster, Nigel Dodds. His majority
has been eroded to 2,081 by a growing local
Catholic population. Things looked espe-
cially dicey for the dupwhen a smaller
party, the Ulster Unionists (uup), said it
would break with tradition and contest all
seats. Seething local Protestants objected
that this would split the unionist vote, let-
ting in Sinn Fein. After receiving calls “of a
threatening nature” from loyalist paramil-
itaries, the uuphastily pulled out.
The campaign is likely to grow still
more heated. In one example, the dup
claims that a convicted Irish Republican
Army bomber, whose device killed nine
Protestants 25 years ago, has been seen can-
vassing for Sinn Fein. 7

BELFAST
Parties form unprecedented pacts in a
bid to unseat their enemies

Northern Ireland

Joining forces


IRELAND

NORTHERN
IRELAND

Belfast
North
Belfast
South

North
Down
Belfast
East

10 20 30 40 50

DUP

SinnFein

2017 generalelectionresults,
byconstituency
Majority,percentagepoints

Independent

50 km

Divided kingdom

Source: House of Commons
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