Foreign affairs 2019 09-10

Yascha Mounk

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They oered protection from other extremists. They vowed to build

a stable political system that would dispense with the chaos and dis-

cord o‘ democratic competition. Above all, they promised less corrup-

tion and faster economic growth.

In most cases, those promises were hard to keep. Dictatorships fre-

quently produced political chaos o‘ their own: palace intrigues, coup

attempts, mass protests. In many cases, their economic policies proved

to be highly erratic, leading to bouts o– hyperinÇation or periods o‘

severe economic depression. With few exceptions, they suered from

staggering levels o‘ corruption. But for all these di”culties, their ba-

sic stories o– legitimation were usually coherent. Although they often

failed to do so, these dictatorships could, in principle, deliver on the

goods they promised their people.

This is not true o‘ populist dictatorships. As the case o“ Erdogan

illustrates, populists come to power by promising to deepen democracy.

This makes it much easier for them to build dictatorships in countries

in which a majority o‘ the population

remains committed to democratic val-

ues. Instead o‘ accepting an explicit

trade o between self-determination

and other goods, such as stability or

economic growth, supporters o‘ popu-

list parties usually believe that they can

have it all. As a result, populists often

enjoy enormous popularity during their ¿rst years in power, as Russia’s

Vladimir Putin, Hungary’s Viktor Orban, and India’s Narendra Modi

have demonstrated.

Once they consolidate their authority, however, populist dictators

fail to live up to their most important promise. Elected on the hope

that they will return power to the people, they instead make it impos-

sible for the people to replace them. The crucial question is what

happens when this fact becomes too obvious for large segments o‘ the

population to ignore.

THE VICIOUS CYCLE

At some point during their tenure, populist dictators are likely to face an

acute crisis. Even honest and competent leaders are likely to see their

popularity decline because o‘ events over which they have little control,

such as a global recession, i‘ they stay in o”ce long enough. There are

Populist dictatorships are

liable to su‹er from an

especially sudden loss of

legitimacy.