The Economist

The EconomistAugust 4th 2018 Asia 41

1

2 lations with India the sworn enemy.
There is room for surprises though. Un-
der Nawaz Sharif the civilian government
and the army clashed. The generals dis-
trusted and then thwarted Mr Sharif’s
overtures to his Indian counterpart Naren-
dra Modi. Relations with India they make
it clear are their remit. But perhaps says Se-
har Tariq of the United States Institute of
Peace “harmony” between civilian rulers
and the army (ie civilian subservience)
could “reap dividends” over India. High-
level exchanges have recently taken place
between the two countries’ armed forces.
Pakistan’s army chief General Qamar

Bajwa is relatively doveish towards India

acknowledging that home-grown jiha-

dism is a far greater threat to Pakistan. Paki-

stan via the generals may yet find the will

to seek better Indian ties.

One day though Mr Khan will surely

clash with the generals. He speaks of open-

ing the border with Afghanistan an idea at

odds with the 2300km-long fence the

army wants to build. And he wants to

spend heavily on health and education

money which can only be found by crimp-

ing the armed forces’ budget. Farooq Tir-

mizi an analyst predicts a fight that will

come down to “guns versus textbooks”.

But that is for the future. For now Mr

Khan who has seldom attended parlia-

mentary sessions and who has described

the assembly as “the most boring place on

earth” must find a sense of dedication de-

tail and compromise that has evaded him

till now. He must learn to work with a polit-

ical class he has only slammed. And he

must gently let down his most enthusiastic

supporters from the irresponsible highs he

generated for them—for instance by pro-

mising to end corruption within 90 days. It

will require dogged strength which he has

in abundance and humility—which

equally he lacks. Over to the captain. 7

A controversial register ofcitizens in north-east India

We are Assamese if you please

G

IVEN the problem it seemed a rea-

sonable solution. The north-eastern

state of Assam is among themost ethni-

cally linguistically religiously and topo-

graphically mixed bits of India. It is also

the most combustible. In the 1970s and

1980s thousands died in unrest mostly

(but by no means entirely) sparked by

fears of the biggest group Assamese-

speaking Hindus ofbeing swamped by

an influx of Bengali-speakers. An impov-

erished country Bangladesh had sprung

up next door in 1971 pushing both perse-

cuted Hindus and Muslim migrants over

a border so porous that 162 bubbles of

foreign territory some no bigger than a

few rice paddies had been left trapped

on either side. So why not the state’s

leaders suggested in 2005 do a tally to

sort out Assam natives from recent in-

truders and send anyone who came

after 1971 packing?

Fast-forward to July 30th when the

state government released a draft of its

National Register of Citizens. The much-

delayed count undertaken in earnest

only in the past three years suggests that

some 4m out of the state’s 33m people

most of whom are Bengali-speaking

Muslims have failed to prove they are

pukka Assamese. The prospect of so

many being made stateless and possibly

expelled hasunderstandably aroused a

furore.

Opposition politicians decry the

exercise. They say the ruling Bharatiya

Janata Party (BJP which reigns in Assam

as well as in Delhi India’s capital) has

cynically designed it to rally its Hindu-

nationalist base in advance of next year’s

general election. Mamata Banerjee chief

minister of neighbouring West Bengal

state warns of “a civil war a bloodbath”.

While cooler heads in the BJPnote that

the count was started under previous

governments hotterones accuse the

opposition of being unpatriotic and

playing “vote-bank politics” with Mus-

lims who make up over a third of As-

sam’s population. OneBJPlegislator

from far-off southern India declared that

if Bangladeshi or Rohingya immigrants

(the latter fleeing persecution in Myan-

mar) do not leave they should be shot.

Assam remains calm for now. Local

leaders insistthe register is just a draft

and that anyone may challenge their

status. As it is many have spent weeks

and months as well as fortunes in legal

fees to dig up the dusty old documents

needed to prove ancestral links to the

state—if these even exist. Those left off

the current list include officers in the

Indian army one from a pair of twins

tens of thousands of women from fam-

ilies too poor unlettered or conservative

to have considered registering their births

or marriages and several serving or

former members ofAssam’s local legisla-

ture—including one from the BJP.

DELHI

Some 4m worry whether they are suddenly about to become stateless

Counting who counts and who doesn’t

I

T DID not take long for Islamic State (IS)to

claim responsibility for a bomb on the is-

land of Basilan partof the southern region

of Mindanao in the Philippines that killed

nine soldiers and civilian bystanders

along with the driver of the van the bomb

was carried in. The army suspects the work

of Abu Sayyaf a brutal kidnapping-for-

ransom gang from Basilan and the neigh-

bouring island of Jolo which these days

claims allegiance to IS.

The attack on July 31st highlighted the

dangers of dragging out a slow stumbling

peace process that had made a leap for-

ward just days before when President Ro-

drigo Duterte enacted the Bangsamoro Or-

ganic Law. The law is key to ending half a

century of rebellion by Filipino Muslim

separatists in Mindanao which has cost

tens of thousands of lives. It is surely key

too to ending the chaos in which jihadists

such asISthrive.

Congress in Manila the capital had tak-

en years to pass the new law which pro-

vides for greater autonomy for the home-

land of the Bangsamoro Muslims who are

in a majority in their part of Mindanao

(which is predominantly Christian like the

country). In return the main rebel group

the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)

has dropped its demand for Bangsamoro

independence. Greater autonomy was

promised in a peace agreement signed by

the government with the MILFin 2014.

The armed campaign for Bangsamoro

independence began in 1969. The 2014

agreement was the culmination of de-

cades of on-and-off negotiations between

the government and Muslim separatist re-

bels first the Moro National Liberation

Front and then its less secular offshoot the

MILF. During those years war-torn im-

Rebellion in the Philippines

Murder in

Mindanao

MANILA

A bombing tells peacemakers to make

haste