William_T._Bianco,_David_T._Canon]_American_Polit

330 Chapter 9 | Elections

benefits and programs to their constituents. Even so, congressional incumbents are not

necessarily safe from electoral defeat. Rather, their high reelection rates result from the

actions they take every day, which are calculated to win favor with their constituents.

In normal elections, these strategies are generally enough to ensure reelection. In

nationalized elections, however, they are not enough to guarantee reelection for some

legislators from the disadvantaged party, such as Democrats in 2010.

Wave elections are relatively rare. Most of the time, not many citizens are highly

concerned about national issues or hold strong opinions about the president, Congress,

or the overall state of the nation. Congressional incumbents also work hard to

focus attention during their campaigns on the good things they have done for their

constituents. And it is important to remember that even in wave elections some voters

still use the incumbent-centered cues described earlier. In a wave election, voters don’t

suddenly become better informed about politics. Rather, some of them just switch to a

different set of voting cues depending on the circumstances of the election.

FIGURE

9. 3 House Republicans

House Democrats

0

20

40

60

100%

10

30

50

70

80

90

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Percentage

of House

Incumbents

Reelected

The figure shows that, despite

public dissatisfaction with Congress,

incumbents still tend to be reelected

in their respective districts. According

to the chart, which congressional

elections were wave elections? Which

were normal elections?

Source: Calculated by the authors from

election results.

“Why

Should

I Care?”

After each election, people look at the results and try to figure out what the election

was about—why some candidates won and others lost. Before each election,

would-be candidates wonder whether this is “the year” to run for office (you may

be one of these candidates someday). The most important thing to understand is

that there are no easy explanations and no guarantees. The problem is not that voters

are fickle or clueless or that the rules are too complex. Rather, elections boil down to

voters and the many different ways they decide how to vote. Knowing what is likely

to influence voters can help you make predictions about who will win elections and

thus what policies and issues government will tackle.

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