Understanding the 2016 and 2018 elections 33353FemaleGenderMale65 and over45 –6 4
30 –4 4
Age18–29AsianLatinoBlackRace/EthnicityWhite100K or more50–100K
30 –49K
Income Under $30KDemocrats Republicans53%
41
42
5437%
55
42
5044
53
4558 %
37
8
88
29
65
29
6541%
53
42
51
50
46
48
47FIGURE
9.4Groups and
Votes in the 2016
ElectionThis figure shows variation in
group support for Democrats and
Republicans in the 2016 elections.
How did the positions and issues
emphasized by candidates in the two
parties create or strengthen these
differences?Source: CNN Exit Poll, http://www.cnn.com/
election/results/exits-polls/national/house
(accessed 11/9/16).The 2018 Midterms
The 2018 election involved campaigns for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, as
well as 35 Senate elections. At first glance, electoral forces favored Republicans in 2018,
with a strong economy and no major international conflicts. However, sustained partisan
polarization meant that economic factors were relatively less important than in previous
elections. For many Americans, vote decisions were driven by party identification, and
their approval or disapproval of President Trump’s performance in office.
The most important structural feature of 2018 was the partisan division of Senate
seats: of the 35 seats contested, Democrats controlled 26 and the Republicans only 9.
Moreover, of the dozen or so seats that were truly in play, 10 were Democratic, many
of them in strongly Republican states such as North Dakota, where President Trump
defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016 by more than 35 points. Democrats had to divide
campaign resources among a much larger number of seats than Republicans, so the
odds favored Republican rather than Democratic gains.
In contrast, Democrats had notable opportunities in House contests. Democrats
needed 23 seats to regain majority control—a number smaller than the average numberFull_10_APT_64431_ch09_296-339.indd 333 16/11/18 1:46 PM