334 Chapter 9 | ElectionsThe 2016
Presidential
Election: State
by StateFIGURE
- 5
AK
(3)
HI
(4)
CA
(55)
AZ
(11) NM(5)
TX
(38)
OK
(7)
KS
(6)
CO
(9)
UT
(6)
NV
(6)
OR
(7) ID
(4) WY
(3)
SD
(3)
ND
(3)
NE
(5)
MN
(10) WI
(10)
IN
(11)
KY (8)
OH
(18)WV
NC (15)
VA
(15)
PA (20)
NY
(29)
VT
(3)
MI (16) NH
(4)
MA (11)
RI (4)
CT (7)
NJ (14)
DE (3)
MD (10)
SC (9)
IL
(20)
IA
(6)
MO
(10)
AR
(6)
LA
(8)
MS
(6)
AL
(9)
TN (11)
GA
(16)
FL
MT
(3)
WA
(12)
Clinton/Kaine (D): 232 Trump/Pence (R): 306D.C. (3)
(29)
(5)
ME
(4)
of seats (about 30) gained by the party out of power in midterm House elections.
Moreover, an abnormally high number of Republican incumbents retired rather than
pursue another term. Some left because the party’s rules forced them to step down from
committee chairs, some to pursue other offices, some because of scandals, and some
because they feared losing a primary or general election. These retirements raised
Democratic hopes for gains in Republican-held suburban districts.
A final fundamental factor was a Democratic advantage in enthusiasm—national
polls consistently showed higher levels of interest among Democrats compared
to Republicans, as well as a Democratic advantage in polls asking which party
respondents would like to control Congress. Of course, because these polls aggregated
results across the entire nation, they did not provide much information about specific
races, where voters might favor one party over the other, or where a candidate might
run a poor campaign or be beset by scandals. It was also unclear whether these
Democratic advantages would translate into higher turnout on Election Day.The Campaign The early months of the election cycle set the tone for the entire
campaign. In House campaigns, Democrats fielded many well-funded, politically
experienced candidates, while Republicans struggled to find good replacements
for retiring incumbents or as challengers against Democrats. And while Senate
Republicans reinforced their structural advantage by nominating a slate of well-
qualified candidates (including several House members and governors), Democratic
incumbents such as John Tester (D-MT) and Joe Manchin (D-W V) ran effective
campaigns that highlighted their attention to local concerns and willingness to vote
with President Trump on issues vital to their states. Democrats also outraised their
Republican opponents in many races, although this advantage was narrowed by
independent groups aligned with Republicans.
In October, public attention to the hearings for Supreme Court nominee Brett
Kavanaugh (and accusations of sexual assault against the nominee) appeared toFull_10_APT_64431_ch09_296-339.indd 334 16/11/18 1:46 PM