Financial Times Europe - 12.09.2019

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2 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Thursday12 September 2019


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I N T E R N AT I O N A L


M U R E D I C K I E— EDINBURGH
JA N E C R O F T— LONDON


Scotland’s highest court has ruled that
British premier Boris Johnson’s proroga-
tion of parliament was unlawful, but
stopped short of ordering the recall of
MPs to Westminster ahead of a UK
Supreme Court hearing.
Edinburgh’s Court of Session saidyes-
terday Mr Johnson’s advice to the Queen
“was unlawful and is thus null and of no
effect”. His decision to prorogue, or sus-
pend, parliament ahead of Brexit was
“motivated by the improper purpose of
stymying parliament”.
The Scottish ruling contrasted with a


decision by London’s High Court astl
week, released in full yesterday, that the
suspension of parliament was “inher-
ently political” and so could not be
reviewed by the courts.
Both Scottish and English rulings and
another case brought in Belfast will be
considered by the Supreme Court for
three days starting on Tuesday.
Anti-Brexit campaigners had hoped
the Scottish court might order an imme-
diate recall of parliament, but Lord Car-
loway, its top judge, said it would not
make any “ancillary orders” before the
Supreme Court hears the case.
Downing Street said the government
was “disappointed” by the decision and
would appeal. It said that if the govern-
ment was defeated at the Supreme
Court it would abide by the ruling and
parliament would be reconvened.
Mr Johnson has insisted that parlia-

ment was being suspended as a routine
matter ahead of setting out its plans for
a new session. “Proroguing parliament
is the legal and necessary way of deliver-
ing this,”Number 10 added.
But in a draft ruling on a legal

challenge brought by more than 70
parliamentarians, the Scottish judges
made clear they believed Mr Johnson’s
real intention was to undermine parlia-
mentary scrutiny in the run-up to the
UK’s exit from the EU.
Lord Carloway said the Queen’s deci-
sion to order the suspension of parlia-

ment, on the premier’s advice, would
not usually be subject to judicial review,
but could be unlawful if its purpose was
to stymie scrutiny of the executive.
“The circumstances in which the
advice was proffered and the content of
the documents produced [by the UK
government] demonstrated that this
was the true reason for the prorogation,”
a draft summary of the decision quoted
him as saying.
Lord Brodie, also on the three-judge
panel, said the prorogation was “an
egregious case of a clear failure to com-
ply with generally accepted standards of
behaviour of public authorities”.
The ruling prompted calls for parlia-
ment to be recalled before the Supreme
Court hearing. Joanna Cherry, the SNP
MP who headed the groupthat brought
the Scottish case, saidthe majority of
MPs “want to be in the house scrutinis-

ing and debating Brexit... therefore
parliament should return”.
Keir Starmer, the opposition Labour
party’s Brexit spokesman, said it was
obvious that shuttingparliament at a
crucial time was wrong and that the
prime minister was not telling the truth
about why he was doing it.
“What we need to do is get back to
parliament and see if we can reopen up
those doors and get Boris Johnson back
in parliament and hold him properly to
account,” Sir Keir said.
But in the earlier ruling on a legal
challenge to prorogation by anti-Brexit
campaigner Gina Miller, London’s High
Court said the premier’s decisions to
prorogue and his advice to the Queen
were “inherently political in nature and
there are no legal standards against
which to judge their legitimacy”.
Editorial Comment age 8p

V I C TO R M A L L E T —PARIS
JA M E S S H OT T E R —WARSAW
M I C H A E L P E E L —BRUSSELS


A burst ofdiplomatic activity y Frenchb
president Emmanuel Macron to repair
the EU’s frayed relations with Moscow
has triggered alarm in other European
capitals, where suspicion of Russian
leader Vladimir Putinruns deep.
Mr Macron’s immediate aim has been
to brokertalks between Mr Putin and
Volodymyr Zelensky, the new Ukrain-
ian president, to try to end the Russian-
backed separatist war in eastern
Ukraine.
A peace summit, the first in three
years, is expected in Paris this month
following last week’s exchange of pris-
oners between iev and Moscow.K
But the French leader has a broader
ambition — to strengthen European ties
to Russia to secure Moscow’s co-opera-
tion inother international crises, in par-
ticular the dangerousdispute over Iran’s
nuclear ambitions.
“Pushing Russia away from Europe is
a profound strategic error, because we
will push Russia either into an isolation
that increases tensions or into alliances
with other great powers such as China,”
the French leader told a gathering of his
country’sambassadorsin August. “The
European continent will never be stable
or secure if we don’t pacify and clarify
our relations with Russia.”
Like US leader Donald Trump, Mr
Macron, who hosted Mr Putin at the
French presidential retreat at the Fort
de Brégançon ahead of last month’s G
summit, envisages the return of Russia
to the group of leading industrialised
economies, from which it was excluded
after its annexation of Crimeain 2014.
His diplomatic outreach s based oni
the conclusion that “it’s absurd to have
relations with Moscow that are worse


than they were during the cold war”,
said Thomas Gomart, director of
the French Institute of International
Relations.
Butsome of France’s allies, notably
Germany, the Netherlands, Poland and
the Baltic states, are wary, and several
want to maintain or reinforce EU sanc-
tions against Russia imposed over
Crimea.
Norbert Röttgen, head of the Bun-
destag’s foreign affairs committee,
accused Paris of failing to co-ordinate
with Berlin or other EU capitals. “The
problem is that you’re rewarding Putin
even though he hasn’t moved an inch on
anything,” he said.
But Nils Schmid, foreign affairs
spokesman for the SPD, the junior part-
ner in Ms Merkel’s coalition, said: “This
is part of a co-ordinated approach...
Germany and France are definitely
pulling in the same direction on
this, although France does it more
bombastically.”
Poland, where historical suspicion of
Russia has been exacerbated by Mos-
cow’s meddling in Ukraine, has also crit-
icised the French strategy.
“Many countries, especially those
that are not Russia’s closest neighbours,
are keen to ignore the fact that Russia
has not really changed its ways in the
Ukrainian conflict,” said Pawel Jablon-
ski, an adviser to Polish prime minister
Mateusz Morawiecki. “We have no illu-
sions about [Russia].”
Polish officials say the country will
push to maintainEU sanctions on Mos-
cow, which are due for renewal early
next year. Paris has for now ruled out
lifting the sanctions: speaking at a meet-
ing of the French and Russian foreign
and defence ministers on Monday,
France’s foreign minister, Jean-Yves Le
Drian, said it was “not yet time”.
But French officials have suggested
Paris will not makeCrimea an obstacle
to better relations if Mr Putin and Mr
Zelensky can reach agreement on end-
ing the war in Ukraine.
Russia hasseized on Mr Macron’s

rhetoric as an example of the pragmatic
co-operation with Europe it has called
for. But Moscow has made no suggestion
it will make significant concessions over
Crimea or easternUkraine.
The concerns of several EU states,
particularly the Netherlands, have been

stoked by Ukraine’s surrender to Russia
ofVolodymyr Tsemakh, aseparatist
commander, as part of the prisoner
swap. Mr Tsemakh was identified as a
“person of interest” by a Netherlands-
led investigation into the 2014 downing
of flight MH17 in eastern Ukraine, in
which 298 were killed, including almost
200 Dutch nationals. The Hague has
said it “greatly regrets” the decision to
let him go.
James Nixey and Mathieu Boulègue of
the Chatham House think-tankaccused
Mr Macron of hubris. “The French pres-
ident’s assumption that he can find a
way to bring Russia into the fold (or in
from the cold.. .) is mistaken,” they
wrote. “Russia does not want to be
brought in, even if it says it does. And
certainly not on the EU’s terms.”
Additional reporting by Guy Chazan in
Berlin

M I C H A E L P E E L— BRUSSELS

Ursula von der Leyen’s new European
Commission is heading for a potential
showdown with the EU parliament
over one of the posts created in her pro-
posed Brussels team: commissioner for
“protecting our European way of life”.

The job, to be taken by Margaritis Schi-
nas, a Greek who is a former chief
spokesperson for the commission, cov-
ers migration, one of the most conten-
tious issues of recent years for the EU,
particularly since an influx of asylum
seekers in 2015 and 2016.
Some MEPs have said the job title and
the description set for the role by Mrs
von der Leyen’s team echoes the lan-
guage of the far-right by suggesting that
Europeans and their cultures are under
threat from the arrival of outsiders.
They have threatened to block the
nomination at parliamentary hearings
that must confirm the27 new commis-
sioners.
Sophie in ‘t Veld, a Dutch MEP with
the Liberal group that helped deliver
Mrs von der Leyen’s narrow majority
when confirmed as the next commis-
sion president in July, called on her to
think again.
“Reactions in parliament to the crea-
tion of this portfolio seem to be gener-
ally very negative,” she said. “Everyone
immediately recognises the ‘dog whis-
tle’, in particular when the title of the
portfolio is read in conjunction with the
mission letter for Schinas.”
Mrs von der Leyen’s appointment let-
ter to Mr Schinas talks of the need for
“workers... equipped to thrive in our
evolving labour market”, as well as
“well-managed legal migration, a strong
focus on integration and ensuring our
communities are cohesive and close-
knit”.
“The European way of life is built
around solidarity, peace of mind and
security,” she writes. “We must address
and allay legitimate fears and concerns
about the impact of irregular migration
on our economy and society.”
Ms in ‘t Veld said Mrs von der Leyen
“would be well advised to reshape Schi-
nas’ portfolio herself immediately and
not wait for parliament to force her
hand”.
Ska Keller, co-president of the Greens
group in the EU parliament, said it was
“scary” to see the proposed new portfo-
lio. “We hope President von der Leyen
does not see a contradiction between
supporting refugees and European val-
ues,” Ms Keller tweeted.
Mina Andreeva, chief commission
spokeswoman, said criticism eflected ar
“fundamental misreading of what the
portfolio is about”. She said the job
reflected a “broad political approach
including European values, democracy,
asylum, the reform of [the] Dublin
[migration rule] and fighting cross-
border terrorism”.
“The central mission that vice-presi-
dent Schinas will be tasked to ensure is
to co-ordinate the work on inclusion
and ‘building a genuine Union of equal-
ity and diversity’,” she said. “You will
also see that the portfolio covers the
areas of migration, security union,
employment and education and cul-
ture.” A spokesperson for Mrs von der
Leyen said: “Europe stands for vibrant,
open and democratic societies”.

UK


PM advice to Queen unlawful, rules court


Suspension of parliament


described as ‘egregious’ by


member of three-judge panel


‘A clear failure to comply


with generally accepted
standards of behaviour

of public authorities’


Commission team


Von der Leyen


under fire


for creating


‘European


way of life’ job


France. approchement risksR


Macron’s Russian


overture sparks


EU unease


French leader’s ambition is to


secure Putin’s co-operation in


other disputes such as Iran


Pro-Russia rebels
in east Ukraine.
Below, Vladimir
Putin and
Emmanuel
Macron —Aleksey
Filippov and Gerard Julien/AFP

‘The
problem is

that you’re
rewarding

Putin even
though he

hasn’t
moved

an inch’


M A RT I N A R N O L D— FRANKFURT

When the European Central Bank’s gov-
erning council meetstoday, its outgoing
president Mario Draghi will face one of
the most crucial moments in his eight-
year tenure.
The talian economist is widely cred-I
ited with saving the euro by promising
to do “whatever it takes” to ease
Europe’s crippling debt crisis in 2012.
The question now is whether he will be
able to launch one last stimulus push to
boost the eurozone’s stagnant inflation
and weak growth before he hands over
to Christine Lagarde next month.
Many economists believehis uncon-
ventional monetary policies are losing
their effectiveness, while some mem-
bers of the ECB governing council are
opposed to pumping even more cheap
money into markets.

How big will the stimulus be?
There is broad consensus among econo-
mists that the ECB will cut its deposit
rate further into negative territory, the
first cut since March 2016, when it fell to
a record low of minus 0.4 per cent.
The only question is whetherit will
choose to cut by 10 basis points or 20bp.

Morecontentious is the robablep
restarting of the quantitative easing pro-
gramme of sovereign and non-financial
corporate bond purchases.
The central bank bought €2.6tn of
bonds between 2015 and last December.
But the heads of the German, Dutch,
Austrian and Estonian central banks —
who all sit on the governing council —
have said they oppose restarting QE.
With bond markets already pricing in
a sizeable stimulus and the German
economyon the brink of recession, the
stakes for Mr Draghi, below,are high.

Will the QE rules change?
When the ECB launched QE four years
ago, it imposed a one-third limit
on the amount of outstand-
ing bonds of any single
member state that it could
buy — known as the issuer
limit. This was designed to
prevent the ECB from hold-
ing enough of any one
country’s debt to have the
power to block a potential
restructuring.
This limit is viewed by
economists as a hurdle to
another large-scale QE

programme because the ECB is already
close to owning 33 per cent of some
countries’ bonds, such as Germany’s.
Mr Draghi said recentlythe ECB still
had “considerable headroom” to buy
more bonds, emboldened by a rulinglast
year by the European Court of Justice
that QE as currently designed was legal.
Yet some analysts saidinvestors
would only believethe ECBhad plenty
of QE firepower left if it raised the limit.

Will there be relief for banks?
Critics saynegative ratesweaken het
eurozone’s struggling banking system,
discouraging lending and motivating
institutions and savers to hoardcash.
To mitigate the hit to the finan-
cial system, the ECB has been
discussing a possible tiering
system in which a portion of
banks’ excess deposits are
exempt from negative rates.
One question is how the ECB
could avoidlimitations of such
a system. For instance,
banks could start trad-
ing their tiering
rights, pushing
up money mar-
ket rates.

Willit change its forward guidance?
The ECB signalled in July that it was con-
sidering changing the language it uses to
describe its intentions. For example,
instead of saying it would not raise rates
before the middle of next year, it could
say that rates would rise only if inflation
expectations came into line with its tar-
get of below, but close to, 2 per cent.
Another ideais to introduce more
symmetry to the inflation target. This
would mean that when the central bank
undershoots, as the ECB has done for
years, it indicates it will tolerate over-
shooting in the future to compensate.

How will Donald Trump react?
After very dovish comments by Mr
Draghiin July, Mr Trumpsaid monetary
easing would weaken the euro. This, he
tweeted, made it “unfairly easier for
them to compete against the USA”.
Having already accused China of
being a currency manipulator and
started a trade war with Beijing, econo-
mists fearan ECB rate cut could provoke
a similar backlash. Such a currency war
with the US could outweigh any poten-
tial benefits ofmonetary easing.
Editorial Comment age 8p
Markets Insight age 20p

MAKE A SMART INVESTMENT ECB meetingEurozone prepares for debate over fresh stimulus


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$ per ££ per €$ per €CURRENCIES1.074Mar 301.2490.8591.0751.241prev0.
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