Financial Times Europe - 12.09.2019

Thursday12 September 2019 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 3

I N T E R N AT I O N A L

TO B I A S B U C K —BERLIN

Hong Kong democracy activistJoshua
Wong as called on Germany and otherh
European countries to step up their
support for the anti-governmentpro-
tests n the city and denounced thei
“increasingly barbaric level of force”
faced by the demonstrators.

Speaking during a visit to Berlin that has
already angered the Chinese authori-
ties, Mr Wongyesterday urged Europe
to halt the export of crowd control
equipment to theHong Kong olice andp
make human rights a core part of trade
talks with China. Germany, he added,
had in the past supplied water cannons
and other riot control gear.
“We are strongly aware that Hong
Kong is the new Berlin in a new cold
war,” Mr Wong said. “Hong Kong people
stand in the front line to confront
authoritarian suppression.”
Hong Kong has been gripped by politi-
cal turmoil for more than three months,
after chief executiveCarrie Lam ried tot
pass a law that would have allowed

criminal suspects to be extradited to mainland China for the first time. The bill has since been withdrawn but the protests have continued unabated. According to Mr Wong, more than 1, demonstrators have been arrested. Mr Wong called for full and free elec- tions in the city, insisting he protestt movement would continue despite the recent political concession by Ms Lam. “We shall continue our fight for democracy and freedom because we do not accept that Hong Kong will be trans- formed into a police state,” Mr Wong said. The prominent activist is on aninter- national tour o drum up support for thet Hong Kong protests, and is due to travel to Washington this week. On Monday, he met German foreign minister Heiko Maas for talks that drew a formal rebuke from China. The Chinese foreign ministry on Tuesday expressed “extreme dissatisfaction” with Berlin’s decision to allow Mr Wong to enter the country, and to meet Mr Maas. Notebook age 8p

Political unrest

Hong Kong activist calls on

Berlin to support protests

N A J M E H B OZO R G M E H R— TEHRAN

John Bolton, the outgoing US national
security adviser, predicted last year that
the Islamic republic of Iran would not
see its 40th birthday and promised cele-
brations in Tehran to mark its demise.
The dismissal of the hawkish Mr Bol-
ton seven months after the 40th anni-
versary of the 1979 revolution and 18
months into his job has been cautiously
welcomed in Tehran. But officials in the
capital make clear that the departure of
a man long seen as an advocate of war
against Iran and regime change did not
necessarily bring the prospect of talks
with Washington any closer.
“With the firing of the biggest sup-
porter of war and economic terrorism,
the White House faces fewer barriers to
understand the realities of Iran,” Ali
Rabiei, Iran’s government spokesman,
said in a post on Twitter.
Hassan Rouhani, Iran’s president,
said yesterday that the US had to not
only remove “warmongers” — a clear
reference to Mr Bolton — but also aban-
don “its warmongering and ‘maximum
pressure’ policies”. He said Iran would
continue its policy of resistance against
the US pressure.
Majid Takht-Ravanchi, Iran’s ambas-
sador to the UN and a nuclear negotia-
tor, said the dismissal by Donald Trump
was a domestic issue that would not
influence the likelihood of talks.
Relations have been in crisis since Mr
Trump pulled the US out of the 2015

nuclear accord in May last year and imposed sanctions that deprived the Islamic republic of much of the reve- nues it derives from the export of oil. Sanctions needed to be lifted before talks could begin, Mr Takht-Ravanchi said, and that would pave the way for multilateral negotiations. “We have repeatedly said... that as long as unjust sanctions and economic terrorism of the US administration are in place, there is no chance for negotiations,” he told a state news agency. “We can look into it when the unjust sanctions are lifted and [then] hold talks within 5+1 [major powers] in the same way we negotiated the nuclear issue.” Immediately after the sacking, Mike Pompeo, US secretary of state, raised the prospect of talks between Mr Trump and Mr Rouhani t the UN Generala Assembly this month. He saidthey could meet with “no pre-conditions”. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, has to approve any meetings between Iranian and US officials and there is no sign he would do so. “The government of Mr Rouhani has no permission to hold talks with the US in New York at any level,” said Hamid- Reza Taraghi, a politician close to hard- liners. “The sacking of Mr Bolton may help Mr Trump not to make hasty anti- Iran decisions any more but the change is mainly to deceive the world’s public opinion and pretend that hawks are gone from his administration.” In an effort to keep the nuclear deal alive, Iran has been in talks with France, Germany and the UK, the European sig- natories. US officials have played down the idea of backing a French proposal to give Iran a $15bn credit line. “The US has deprived Iran of about $100bn of income since reimposing sanctions. This is what the US has to change for negotiations to begin instead of changing a figure like Mr Bolton,” said Saeed Laylaz, a reformist analyst of Iran’s political economy. “The US has to take one serious step in practice like lifting some sanctions. Oth- erwise, Iran’s economy has proven resil- ient despite the pressure which helps the leaders not to be desperate for negotiations with the US.” The Iranian rial has fallen 60 per cent against the US dollar over the past year and inflation is running at 40 per cent, but Iran has earned foreign currency through exports of crude and non-oil goods. This has allowed for the import of basic commodities and medicines. Supermarket shelves remain full and fuel is readily available. Iranian officials have long argued that Mr Bolton’s links to Mojahedin-e Khalq, an overseas opposition group, and US reliance on opposition analysis, has dis- torted the picture of Iran.

D E M E T R I S E VA STO P U LO A N D A I M E W I L L I A M S— WASHINGTON

John Bolton was seen as an odd choice when Donald Trump chose the foreign policy hawk to succeed HR McMaster as the White House national security adviser in March 2018. Aside from his trademark moustache, which Mr Trump hated, he was a propo- nent of employing American power overseas in the kind of muscular way that Mr Trump had rejected during his 2016 campaign. Eighteen months later, Mr Bolton met the same fate as Mr McMaster —fired by a president who had grown frustrated ta his efforts to thwart his foreign policy on everything from Iran and North Korea to Russia and, just last weekend, Afghanistan. When Mr Bolton entered the West Wing — after being passed over for Mr McMaster the previous year — there was no mystery about his views. In newspaper articles and appearances on Fox News, the unrepentant supporter of the Iraq war had argued that the US should push for regime change in Iran and strike North Korea. In his new role, Mr Bolton argued that his job was to advocate for the policies of Mr Trump. But unlike Mike Pompeo, the equally hawkish secretary of state, the former Bush administration official failed to leave his own views at the White House doorstep and continued to push Mr Trump in directions that

matched his world view. “Bolton made a cardinal mistake. He would get ahead of the president and almost try to box him in — including on North Korea,” said one former senior official. One White House official said Mr Trump had grown increasingly angry with Mr Bolton in recent months, chaf- ing at his hardline views and his reluc- tance to defend the president. Mr Bolton was conspicuously absent from TV talk shows, particularly when Mr Trump had pushed policieshe opposed, such as his suggestion at the G7 in Franceto invite Russia ack into the club.b The official said Mr Trump decided to fire Mr Bolton over the past 48 hours after concluding that “enough was enough”. The move came just days after Mr Bolton strenuously opposed a plan by Mr Trump to bring members of the Taliban to Camp David, the presidential retreat, to sign a peace accord to end the conflict in Afghanistan. While the Afghanistan dispute was the final straw, there were already clear signs that Mr Bolton was under pressure. He did not attend some of Mr Trump’s meetings with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, including an important session in Hanoi in February and when the two leaders met in June in the demilitarised zone. There were other signs of conflict. Shortly after Mr Bolton said in May that North Korean missile tests had violated UN sanctions, Mr Trump contradicted him at a press conference by saying: “I view it differently.” The current and former officials said Mr Trump erupted at Mr Bolton in March for sparking an embarrassing controversy over US sanctions on Chi- nese companies.

The day after the Treasury imposed sanctions on two Chinese shipping companies accused of helping North Korea, Mr Trump tweeted he had “ordered the withdrawal” of the measures. Officials scrambled to defend the tweet by claim- ing that he was referring to another batch of sanctions that were in the planning stage. But the officials said Mr Bolton had led Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, to believe that Mr Trump supported the move to sanction the Chi- nese businesses when in fact that was not the case.

“They had tried to misrepresent what Potus was thinking and Potus got upset,” said the former official, using a com- monly used government acronym for the president of the United States. The White House official said the inci- dent became a “sticking point” in the relationship between Mr Trump and Mr Bolton since it underscored the view, held by some other officials, that Mr Bolton was not an honest broker. Mr Bolton was not always alone in his opposition to Mr Trump. After the president abruptly called off a military strike on Iran following the downing of a US drone, Mr Pompeo joinedMr Bolton in opposition. However, in recent months the 70- year-old, Yale-educated lawyer asw also at odds with Mr Pompeo. On Iran, Mr Trump and Mr Bolton

agreed on withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal ith Tehran. But Mr Boltonw wassceptical ofMr Trump’s push to meet Iranian president Hassan Rou- hani, just as he did not endorse the three summits with Mr Kim. Underscoring the chaotic nature of personnel decisions in the Trump administration, Mr Bolton had been scheduled to appear at a White House news conference on Tuesday alongside Mr Pompeo and Mr Mnuchin.Mr Pom- peo said smilingly that he was “never surprised” when asked if he had been caught off guard by the dismissal. “Bolton had many ideological foes in the administration, and they seem to have been successful persuading the president that Bolton was undermining him, leaking about him or boxing him in,” said Jon Alterman, a foreign policy expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The former official said that while some members of the Trump team were able to use their relationship with the president to further their goals, Mr Bol- ton had gone too far. “Bolton tried to take advantage and even tried to manip- ulate Mr Trump. He misunderstood how to use his power.” With Mr Bolton having already left the White House, the focus has shifted to who will become the fourth person to hold the critical role. “It is hard to imagine anyone of serious accomplishment who would be willing to jump into the breach at this point, observing the failure of three predeces- sors,” said James Stavridis, a retired top US military leader. “This weakens national security by taking away an independent voice who was willing to challenge the president.”

West Wing hawkwore out his

welcome at White House

Bolton and the president were

increasingly at odds, with

Afghanistan the final straw

‘Bolton made a cardinal

mistake. He would get ahead of the president and

almost try to box him in’

Iran welcomes

dismissal of

Bolton but

resists talks

Removal of sanctions demanded in

return for any negotiations with US

Listening in: John Bolton looks on as Donald Trump speaks to the press at the White House in May Brendan Smialowski/ AFP/Getty

ecurity adviser’s sackingS

Three Australians, two of whom also hold UK passports, have been arrested in Iran amid growing tensions between Tehran and London following theseizure f oilo tankers passing through the Gulf. Australia’s department of foreign affairs saidyesterday it was providing consular assistance to the families of three Australians detained in Iran. “Due to our privacy obligations, we will not comment further,” the department said in a statement. One of the women with dual nationality is a British-Australian blogger who was travelling with her Australian boyfriend who was also arrested, according to The Times newspaper in London. The other holder of both Australian and British nationality is a female lecturer at an Australian university. Jamie Smyth, Sydney

Australian arrests Tension with UK rises amid oil tanker dispute

M I L E S J O H N S O N— ROME

Italy’s prime minister has asked for a “little bit of time” to cut its debt by investing in economic growth in his first meeting with the incoming president of the European Commission.

Giuseppe Conte, sworn in as leader of Italy’s ruling coalition this week, said after his talks with Ursula von der Leyen that Rome would not pursue policies that risked financial stability. “We must make investments that allow us to direct growth towards greater employment, and we want to make a transparent pact with the EU on what is our programme,” Mr Conte said. “Our objective is the reduction of debt,” he said. “We are not saying we do not want our accounts in order, but we want to do it through a reasonable growth and productive investments.” Italy’s government borrowing costs have collapsed over the past month on expectations the coalition will take a far more conciliatory stance in budget negotiations with the EU.The previous

coalition of the rightwing League and anti-establishment Five Star Move- ment, which clashed with Brussels over budget plans,collapsed last month. Mr Conte has stayed on as premier in the coalition of the pro-EU Democrats and formerly Eurosceptic Five Star. Italy has the highest level of public

debt as a proportion of gross domestic product in the eurozone after Greece, and has long struggled with low growth. Expectations of smoother Italy-EU discussions have been heightened by the appointment of Roberto Gualtieri, a veteran member of the European Par- liament, as Italy’s economy minister. Paolo Gentiloni, a former Italian prime minister, has been nominated as Euro- pean commissioner for the economy.

Budget talks

Italy asks Brussels for time to

cut debt through investment

JA M E S S H OT T E R —WARSAW

Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party has moved to suspend the parliament until after a general election, raising suspicions it plans to delay unpopular bills until after the vote.

The parliament, in which Law and Jus- tice has a majority, was due to hold its final session from yesterday until tomorrow. But parliamentary business was being suspended after yesterday’s session until after the October 13 poll. Theparliament would then reconvene for two days to finish the session. Elzbieta Witek, the Speaker, said the unprecedented suspension, which has echoes of the prorogation furore in the UK, was meant to allow MPs to focus on campaigning, and denied new bills would be added to the agenda. “We have not broken the rules,” she said, adding the party had not provided a justification for its request. “This is not a new sitting.. .It is the same sitting that has [already] been planned.” Opposition politicians suspected the

suspension was meant to let Law and Justice pass bills at the last minute if the election, which it is expected to win, did not go as forecast. Malgorzata Kidawa-Blonska, prime ministerial candidate of the main opposition Civic Coalition, told TOK FM radio: “Law and Justice has some sort of hidden plan.. .And I do not believe Ms Witek’s claim that this is being done for the benefit of MPs: you do not do things like this just out of love for politicians.” Opinion polls suggest the nationalist Law and Justice, accused by Brussels of undermining the rule of law but popular for its generous welfare spending, is on course for a convincing victory. An aggregation of polls by Ben Stanley at the University of Social Sciences and Humanities in Warsaw, put Law and Justice on 46 per cent, the centre-right Civic Coalition 29 per cent and a leftwing coalition 13 per cent. Borys Budka of Civic Coalition asked whether the conservative Law and Jus- tice was planning to drop budget prom- ises that it could not fulfil.

Law and Justice

Polish ruling party attacked

for suspension of parliament

Giuseppe Conte, who has kept his job, has said Italy wants to ‘make a transparent pact with the EU’

Financial Times Europe - 12.09.2019

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