New York Post, Tuesday, August 27, 2019nypost.com37ACTIONACTION
In association
withDOWN
INDY
D MPS
Out-of-Luck Colts go from
contender to long shot
Rare refund on MVP bet
By MATT YOUMANSL
AS VEGAS — Injuries to
quarterbacks are a part of
the game and inherent
risks that bettors take. A to-
tally unexpected retirement
by an elite quarterback is not
part of the playbook.
The breaking news of An-
drew Luck’s retirement Satur-
day night forced bookmakers
to audible and immediately
adjust all odds on the India-
napolis Colts, who no longer
were Super Bowl contenders
when the books opened for
business Sunday morning.
As VSiN analyst and former
NFL executive Michael Lom-
bardi said, “Who retires at 30
years old probably in the
prime of his career?”
Obviously, Luck is wired a
little differently. He spoke of
mental and physical fatigue
from ankle and calf injuries
that lingered all summer and
triggered his decision to quit
two weeks before the Colts’
season opener. Luck, who
will turn 30 on Sept. 12, just
had the best year of his ca-
reer after overcoming a right
shoulder injury.
William Hill sportsbook di-
rector Nick Bogdanovich said
he does not consider this
doomsday for the Colts, but he
moved their Super Bowl odds
from 20/1 to 50/1 and adjusted
their win total from 10 (Under
-130) to 7½ (Under -120).
The drop-off from Luck to
Jacoby Brissett, who has beenconsidered one of the better
No. 2 quarterbacks in the
league, is at least four points.
The Colts are now 7-point
road underdogs in their Sept. 8
opener against the Chargers,
with some books going to 7½.
The line was Chargers -3 be-
fore Luck’s retirement.
“I do think the Colts can still
be competitive,” Bogdanovich
said. “Brissett knows it’s his
team now, so maybe he can
settle in and play well. Maybe
the stars align.”
Bogdanovich’s view is on
the optimistic side. William
Hill dropped the Colts’ win
total from 10 to 7¹/₂. FanDuel
sportsbook made the most
dramatic adjustment, going
from 9½ to 6½.
At the Westgate Super-
Book, the Colts’ odds to win
the AFC moved from 6/1 to
30/1, and the prop price on
Indianapolis to make the
playoffs was adjusted from
“Yes” -200 to “No” -300. Odds
to win the AFC South also
changed, with the Colts going
from 5/7 favorites to 4/1.
“It was a shocker for sure,”
said Westgate SuperBook
vice president Jay Kornegay,
who made a quick change to
the Colts’ playoff odds before
any bettors could take a shot
at an advantageous number.
At William Hill, Luck was
the second choice on the
MVP futures board at 8/1
odds and drew only six tickets
for a total of $140. But it was a
different story at the Super-Book, where Luck ranked
third in the MVP ticket count
behind Browns QB Baker
Mayfield and Bears QB
Mitchell Trubisky. The West-
gate had written 44 tickets on
Luck at 10/1 odds, and the
largest wager was for $1,000.
The MVP odds sheet states:
“All bets are action.” How-
ever, Kornegay said he met
with his staff Sunday and the
decision was made to refund
Luck bets.
“I just felt like it was the
right thing to do,” Kornegay
said. “It’s retirement. Obvi-
ously it’s a totally different
situation if the player was in-
jured. If there was a time to
refund something, this was it.
It was not like we were look-
ing for kudos. People had no
shot on this.”
Luck passed for 39 touch-
downs last season — second
in the league behind the
Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes —
as Indianapolis finished 10-6.
In the other three seasons
Luck did not deal with a right
shoulder injury, the Colts
went 11-5 each time. In his
seven-year career, Luckposted a 53-33 record straight
up. He was 49-34 against the
spread, winning +12.52 units
with a 14.6 percent return on
investment, according to Bet-
LabsSports.com. This means
a $100 spread bettor made a
total of $1,252 riding Luck in
every start throughout his ca-
reer.
The health of a star quarter-
back is imperative to any fu-
tures wager, and Luck serves
as the latest lesson. The
Colts’ future is nowhere near
as bright with Brissett, who
was acquired in a 2017 trade
with New England. He
started 15 games for Indianap-
olis that season and went 4-11.
“The Colts have a good
team and they had Super
Bowl aspirations,” Lombardi
said. “It’s probably better for
the Colts that Luck made the
decision. It’s painful to say.
But that’s life and we just
move on.”VSiN senior editor Matt
Youmans co-hosts The Edge,
weekdays 3-6 p.m. on Siri-
usXM 204, fuboTV, AppleTV
and VSiN.com.JACOBY RESET: The Colts went from 3- to at least 7-point
underdogs in their opener at the Chargers now that Jacoby Bris-
sett has replaced the retired Andrew Luck. Indianapolis’ odds
also took a tumble in all of the futures markets. Getty Images