The Observer - 11.08.2019

• The Observer
  Focus Flutter by 11.08.19 35
  Butterfl ies are
  thriving this
  summer but is their
  future as bright?
  Page 36

by many as dismissive of Scottish

views, was recently described by Ian

Blackford , leader of the SNP in the

Scottish parliament, as a “recruiting

tool” for the independence cause.

Indeed, these twin factors,

Johnson and a hard Brexit, could be

a tipping point which threatens the

very survival of the United Kingdom.

In Inverurie, Andrew Jenkins

voted No to an independent

Scotland in 2014 but is now tilting

reluctantly towards Yes. “I wouldn’t

like Brexit and Johnson to change

my mind but it may well do,” he said.

If there was a referendum in the

next couple of years, “it would cer-

tainly be a more diffi cult choice this

time than last time”.

Libbie Allison was too young

to take part in the 2014 referen-

dum, but her vote would have been

No. “I felt that Scotland might not

be strong enough to be independ-

ent,” she said. Now, aged 19, “I would

vote Yes, which is sad because I love

Britain. I don’t feel England’s views

match with Scotland’s any more.

We can still have our shared his-

tory and culture, but it feels we

have been dragged into something

[Brexit] we didn’t vote for.” Asked

what she thought of Johnson, she

threw her head back and groaned.

“Oh my God. He has made us look

like a joke.”

About 17 miles northwest of

Aberdeen, Inverurie is a quietly

prosperous town, cleaving to tradi-

tion, resistant to upheaval. Its pop-

ulation is growing; there are jobs to

be had in the dominant industries of

agriculture, oil and gas; crime and

antisocial behaviour are rare; house

prices and rents are high, pushed up

by demand. The town lies in what

has been a Lib Dem-Tory marginal

constituency.

In the past fi ve years, the public

here has gone to the polls six times

anti-nationalist tactical voting by

Liberal Democrat supporters. Earlier

this year, in the EU elections, the

SNP took three out of six seats in

Aberdeenshire, with the Tories, Lib

Dems and Brexit party gaining one

each. Labour polled less than 3%

of the total vote; “they’re fi nished

round here,” said one local.

Although many people are reti-

cent about discussing politics, the

underlying mood is “extremely

divisive”, according to a local

Conservative offi cial. One lunchtime

customer in the Gordon Highlander

pub said he was staunchly pro-

Union but declined to give his name

in case he got “a brick through the

window” from the nationalists.

Johnson, he warned, was “manna

from heaven for Nicola Sturgeon”,

the SNP leader and fi rst minister.

C

lark, the local MP and

now a Scottish minis-

ter in Johnson’s gov-

ernment, fl atly rejected

such a notion. “Boris

is a hugely popu-

lar fi gure, full stop, because he con-

nects with the general public. People

understand what Boris is on about.

The press has tried to paint him as

being divisive.

“Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP and

the press in Scotland have poured

out this bile that he’s somehow anti-

Scottish, but people need to judge

him as prime minister by what he

achieves.” He will, Clark added,

“make all of the United Kingdom

prosperous”.

At least two reports have sug-

gested otherwise. In 2017, the

Centre for Cities thinktank con-

cluded that Aberdeen would be the

UK city most adversely affected by

Brexit , especially a hard exit, mainly

due to the impact of increasing

costs in the oil sector.

Earlier this year, a report from

the Scottish government said 25%

of Aberdeenshire’s workforce was

employed in sectors “most exposed”

in a no-deal Brexit, especially farm-

ing and fi sheries.

Even Clark – generally an enthu-

siast for Johnsonian positive think-

ing – conceded that agriculture,

especially sheep farming, could be

in for “a headache”.

According to last week’s poll, con-

ducted by Lord Ashcroft, 47% of

respondents in Scotland now want

another independence referendum,

with 45% disagreeing. And if a sec-

ond poll was held, 46% would vote

Yes to independence, and 43% No –

a 52-48% majority if “don’t know”

and “won’t vote” are excluded. The

shift from 2014 is small, but only a

modest movement would be needed

to get Yes over the line.

John Curtice , professor of poli-

tics at Strathclyde university and

the UK’s foremost poll analyst, said

Everyone I know

knows someone

who’s changed

their mind from

No to Yes ... but

people are weary

Gillian Martin, SNP MSP

35

against the backdrop of an increas-

ingly complex and turbulent polit-

ical landscape. After Scottish, UK

(twice) and European elections

plus two referendums, the broad-

brush picture is a place opposed to

both independence and Brexit, and

see-sawing between the Tories

and the Nationalists.

In the fi rst of those votes, the 2014

referendum, Aberdeenshire voted

60-40 against independence. Yet the

following year, Alex Salmond, the

former leader of the SNP and fi rst

minister, took the Westminster seat

of Gordon, in which Inverurie sits.

In the 2016 Brexit referendum,

the area voted Remain by 55.5% to

44.5%. In Scottish parliament elec-

tions the same year, it backed the

SNP. Then, in the UK parliament

election of 2017, Salmond was turfed

out in favour of Colin Clark, a pro-

Brexit Conservative whose cam-

paign, some say, was aided by

2016

Th e EU referendum.

Scotland votes to stay

in the EU, 62% to 38%.

First minister Nicola

Sturgeon, right, says

the result “represents

a signifi cant and a

material change of

the circumstances

in which Scotland

voted against

independence”. A

second referendum

“must be on the table”.

2019

Boris Johnson, right,

becomes prime minister,

pledging to take Britain

out of the EU on 31

October , deal or no deal.

An opinion poll shows

a small lead among

Scots in favour of

independence amid talk

of a break-up of the UK.

Shadow chancellor, John

McDonnell, says Labour

would allow another

referendum if in power.

Continued overleaf

Based on Johnson’s first week,

which of these reflects your view?

Scotland opinion polls

I thought he would do badly, but he has

done better than I expected

I thought he would do well and he has

I thought he would do well, but he has done

worse than I expected

I thought he would do badly and he has

Source: Lord Ashcroft Polls. Note: *Catagorised

according to how they voted in the 2017 electon

Yes No

All Scots

43 90

45 8

Labour

Conservative

SNP

46 15

40 77

If it were not possible to have

both, which is more important?

For Scotland to remain in the UK

For Scotland to remain in the EU

Does not include: Don’t know

All Scots

46 4

43 92

Labour

Conservative

SNP

34 87

50 8

How would you vote if there was

a referendum tomorrow?

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Does not include ‘would not vote’ and ‘Don’t know’

13 2

2

13 36 36

All Scots, %

None of these and Don’t know

Conservative *

25 36 3 8 28

Labour *

12 743371

SNP *

8 5 53 32

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