217If the Arab countries were unable to meet the challenges of the Arab
Spring, outside powers contributed to continued tension in the Middle
East. The US, which has retained considerable influence in the region
since the end of the Second World War, has been the main culprit. During
the crucial moments, the Obama administration was dithering in its
responses to the popular demand for change. It was torn between stand-
ing by its long-standing allies like Mubarak and endorsing American values
such as democracy, human rights and good governance. In the process, it
disappointed both sides and came to be blamed for the continued sliding
and political instability. Its military involvement, especially in Iraq in 2003,
has been responsible for the revival of sectarianism and emergence of
extremist groups such as ISIS. If Washington pursued an ineffective policy
towards the Syrian civil war, Russia and China prevented any meaningful
international action by backing the beleaguered Assad regime. Thus, far
from resolving the problem, the Syrian crisis was spurred by external inter-
vention, including some Middle Eastern countries, which backed rival fac-
tions, thereby creating the largest humanitarian disaster since 1945.
Thus, for nearly two decades the Arab world is going through an inter-
nal churning. The September 11 attacks resulted in internal debates, not
always positive or progressing, within Islam, and the Arab Spring rekin-
dled traditional regional rivalry and sectarian divisions. If one locates the
Saudi policy within this broad regional context, it is possible to identify
some challenges facing India in the coming years.
Regional Challenges
The first and the foremost challenge facing India is the sectarianism, espe-
cially in the Persian Gulf region whose stability is vital for its economic
growth and progress. While the internal schism is as old as Islam itself, the
Shia- Sunni tension in the modern Middle East is often traced to the
Islamic revolution in Iran. Gradually it receded from public discourse until
its resurrection in the wake of the US-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003.
President George W. Bush’s democracy promotion model resulted in the
political assertion of Iraq’s Shia majority and transformed the country as
the first Arab Shia state in the political sense. This led to the political
construction of Shia crescent which loosely included near contiguous
Shia-dominated countries and areas of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Bahrain, the
Eastern province of Saudi Arabia and Yemen.
CHALLENGES