NEWS 3
21 March 2020 THE WEEK...and how they were covered
Howdeadlyisthevirus?
Probablybetween0.5%and2%ofpeople
infecteddie,butwejustdon’tknow.The
“casefatalityrate”isafigurereachedby
monitoringlargenumbersoverthecourse
ofadiseaseanddividingthedeathsbythe
numberofcases.On-the-hoofestimates,like
theWorldHealthOrganisation’s3.4%,are
likelyverywrong:they’rebasedonsevere
cases,whenmildinfectionsgounreported.
Besides,theratechangesradicallyaccording
toageandthehealth-serviceresponse.
China’sstatisticssuggestashockinglyhigh
fatalityrateof14.8%forpeople 80 or
older;butonly0.2%ofthoseaged10-19;
andnoneatallfortheunder-tens.Italy’s
fatalityrateisthoughttohavebeensohigh
–atleast5%–becauseithastheoldest
populationinEurope,andbecauseits
hospitalswereoverwhelmed.
Whyhasitspreadsofast?
Thespeedofanepidemicdependsontwothings–howmany
peopleeach caseinfects andhow long ittakes for the infection
tospreadfrom oneperson tothenext.Each caseof Covid- 19
infects an estimated1.5 to 3.5people;likeflu, it seems to
transmit fairlyquickly,with aroundfourdays between each
caseinachain oftransmission. Thismeans that outbreaks
grow quicklyandare difficult
tostop.Although most
spreadingisd oneby people
withsymptoms –fever,dry
cough, fatigue and difficulty
breathing–thereisgrowingevidenceof“stealthtransmission”
bypeoplewhohaven’tyetdevelopedsymptoms, orneverdo.
Accordingto one recent studyofdatafrom China,at least
10%of infections derived frompeople who did notyet feel ill.
Canyou getittwice?
Probablynot. Judgingfromother coronavirusinfections,
once aperson hashadthe disease,they willgenerally be
immuneandwon’t get itagain, certainlyin the short term
–although,again,wedon’tknow,because wedon’tyet have
anantibodytest(oneis expectedshortly). Intheory,one
way totackle the outbreak wouldbe to letit rip through
thepopulation untilso-called herd immunity isbuilt up: once
enough people are immune to avirus,it will stop spreading.
Chief scientific adviser PatrickVallance seemedto suggestthat
thiswouldbetheofficialpolicylastweek,buttheGovernment
has since rowed back:itw ould involvehugelossoflife.
Besides, aswithflu,the immunity mightnot be permanent:
antibodiesweaken with time, and viruses mutate.
Whatexactly isthe official advice?
The Governmenthas advisedeveryonein
Britainto observe “social distancing”:to
avoid non-essential travelandcrowded
places;to workfromhome where possible;
to limit “face-to-face interaction withfriends
andfamily”.It “strongly”advises those
whoare over70, haveunderlying health
conditions, orarepregnant, todothis.You
can, however,“go forawalk outdoorsif
youstay morethantwo metres from others”.
“Unnecessary”visitsto care homesshould
also cease. Where ahouseholdmember hasa
feveroranewcontinuouscough,allresidents
shouldself-isolate–not go outata ll,if
possible–for14 days;thosewholive alone
shoulddo sofor seven days. Those with
“serious” health conditionsareto self-isolate
for 12 weeks fromthisweekend.Which countries aretackling thevirus best?
The crucial thingis “flatteningthecurve”: slowingthe
exponential rateat whichthe virusspreads sothat fewer
peopleneed toseek treatment at anygiven time.When
the curve exceeds healthcare capacity–acutebeds,
doctors,ventilators–peopledie inlargenumbers, asin
Italy andWuhan. Chinaflattened itscurve byimposing
draconianmeasures,butTaiwan andSouth Korealook
like the nationstoe mulate.
Taiwan stoppedthe virus in
its tracks,bys creeningplane
passengers fromlate2019,
and trackingandmapping
each case.South Korealimited amajor outbreakwithout
lockingdownentire cities. Aswell asisolatingcases and
tracing contactsingreatdetail,it ha sthe mostexpansive
and well-organised testing programmeintheworld.New
legislations allowsfor themovementsofinfected people to
be reconstructed from their personal data.How long will itlast?
The hardtruthisthat it may keepcausing outbreaksuntil
there’savaccine(at least ayearaway)or atreatment(various
antiviralsare beingtrialled). Until then, ifsocialdistancingis
relaxed, “transmissionwill quicklyrebound”,accordingto
Imperial College’sinfluential report modelling theepidemic.
But inthelong term,we’llhave toreconciletheneed toflatten
the curve with theneed tocarryon withourlivesand revive
the economy. Warmer weather may help:the worst outbreaks
have happened in areas where thetemper ature is between 5°C
and 11°C, and humidity is high. However, at this point–as
with so muchabout this virus–wesimply don’t know.Keepingasocial distance is vitalBriefing: Covid-19 and its spread
WhenIwas achildmymother usedtotell me astory aboutawoman
who, during theWar, washit byabus as she crossed theroad. Lying
on thegroun d, th ewoman looked at her crushedlegsand cried
because she hadahole in her nylonstock ings. Maybeit’s aself-defencemechanism thatcausesthe
brainto focu sonthe trivial inamoment ofcrisis .But it’s also truethat wecanoperateon twolevels:
devastatedby news thatafriendhas cancer,butalso distraughtabout our child’sbad school report.
Last night,Ilay awake worrying about my father, shut in his care home in Yorkshire. But what had
actually woken me at 1am wasn’t anxiety about his plight: it was the jolting realisation that all the
events on the List page in this issue of The Week would be cancelled by the time it came out. And
there it is. People are ailing in hospitals, yet we are preoccupied by problems at work. But inaway
our priorities are right: our jobs don’t just pay our mortgages; the taxes they generate fund those
hospitals. The challenge for us now at The Week is to keep the magazine interesting and relevant,
even as staff fall sick, sections we’ve been publishing for the past 25 years become obsolete, and the
news grows monolithic and dark. The Week’s readers are the most loyalamagazine editor could
hope for; judging from the correspondence I’ve had over the years, they’re also the most thoughtful,
knowledgeable, intelligent and engaged.Ihope you will stick with us as we adapt. And if for
whatever reason you don’t, or can’t,Ihope we’ll meet again, some sunnier day.THEWEEK
Caroline Law
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Ed itorialchairman and co-founder:Jeremy O’Grady“In China, at least 10% of infections derived
from people who did not yet feel ill”