58
TheIslamicateContext
existbeforeIslam.
Italso
explainswhy
so
many
oftheslavesol-
diers
camefrom
steppe
anddesert
regions.
Yeteventhe
stirruptheory
correlates
farlesswellthanIslam
does.Ifitwasthedecisivefactor,why,then,
didtheothernon-
horse-breedingareas(Hindu
IndiaandChinain700-1400
c.E.)
notalso
developmilitaryslavery?
Furthermore,manymilitary
slaveswerefootsoldiers,liketheblack
troops
inEgypt
andthe
Janissaries,
therenowned
elite
corps
oftheOttoman
Empire.
Something
besides
the
stirrup
musthavebeeninvolvedinthe
roleofslavesoldiersinIslamdom.
The
striking
correlationbetween
Islamand
militaryslavery
shownin
chapter
2 raises
the
possibility
ofacausalconnection
betweenthisreligion
andthis
pattern
of
military
recruitment.
However,
correlationalone,asstatisticiansandlogicians
never
tireof
pointing
out,doesnot
imply
causation.
Somecorrelations
are
merely
unrelated;noone
claims
significance
forthe"near-
perfect
correlations
betweenthedeathratein
Hyderabad,
Indiafrom 1911 to 1919,andvariationsinthe
membership
of
the InternationalAssociation of
Machinists
during
thesame
period.
’’9
Others arecounterlogical:
statisticsindicatethatthe
presence
of
fire
engines
at
firescorrelateswithmoredestructive
fires;canone
inferthatfireswouldbelessdestructiveifnofire
engines
were
dispatched?
10
High
correlationbetween
Islamand
militaryslavery
"canserveonlyasthestartingpoint
forfurther
investigation
andanalysis.
’’11
In
general,
"toestablishthe
reg-
ularistic
causal
proposition
thatXcausedY,three
things
mustbe
demonstrated.First,theremustbeacorrelationbetween
Xand
Y.Second,theremustbea
proper
temporalrelationship
intheir
occurrence,
Xi
mustoccurbefore
Y.
Third,theremustbeat
least
a
presumptiveagency
whichconnectsthem.
’’12
Inthecase
ofIslamand
militaryslavery,
correlationdoesexistand
thetem-
poralsequence
is
proper
(Islamprecededmilitaryslavery);
to
9.D.H. Fischer,Historians’Fallacies:Towardthe
Logic
of
Historical
Thought
(NewYork,1970),pp.
168-69.
10.R.M.MacIver,SocialCausation(Boston,1942),
p.
92.
11.Ibid.,p.93.
- Fischer,
ttistorians’
Fallacies,p.
169.